Scotland - do you predict that it will be an independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

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Scotland - an independent nation within 10 years?

Yes
48
54%
No
41
46%
 
Total votes: 89

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Paulatic
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Re: Scotland - do you predict that it will be independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

Post by Paulatic »

Pebble wrote:[
Both sides lied, we only got to see the lies of the side that won, do you really believe the SNP and Yes campaign didn't come out with a lot of exaggerated rubbish?
The trick is to choose the side that is lying the least and in the last indy ref I think we got that right.


Correct
Therefore the rest of the quote is what @Pebble thinks. That'll be right then :wink:
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Tangled Metal
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Re: Scotland - do you predict that it will be independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

Post by Tangled Metal »

Keep pointing to the last insured SNP prospectus. If you read it you'll see mistruths, lies and wishful thinking verging on the unworkable. I think if you're open to it you can easily see the lies of both sides. If you can't see that then I suspect your own bias is preventing you. As someone said, I can't be ***** going into a Google search battle with you about that. However I think JDSK linked to the SNP prospectus for a start.
Jdsk
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Re: Scotland - do you predict that it will be independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

Post by Jdsk »

Plaid Cymru manifesto today
https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/p ... 1617789106

contains:

Hold an independence referendum during our first term in government.

Create a statutory National Commission to oversee the process leading to the referendum, including drafting a Welsh Constitution, involving widespread consultation.


Jonathan
Jdsk
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Re: Scotland - do you predict that it will be independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

Post by Jdsk »

And the first big poll in Scotland since the little local difficulties:
https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/ ... s-concerns

includes:

Image

Jonathan
Jdsk
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Joined: 5 Mar 2019, 5:42pm

Re: Scotland - do you predict that it will be independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

Post by Jdsk »

New report: "Union at the Crossroads. Can the British state handle the challenges of devolution?"
https://www.bennettinstitute.cam.ac.uk/ ... rossroads/
https://www.bennettinstitute.cam.ac.uk/ ... rossroads/
https://www.bennettinstitute.cam.ac.uk/ ... Report.pdf

Jonathan

NB: Betteridge's Law of Headlines...
Jdsk
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Re: Scotland - do you predict that it will be independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

Post by Jdsk »

"Ministers believe Boris Johnson 'will be forced to grant permission for a second Scottish independence referendum if Nicola Sturgeon and Alex Salmond win two thirds of Holyrood seats at election in May'"
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... -vote.html

I know that that is the SNP's plan... but this is a Daily Mail piece about a Sunday Times article about Ministers in London...

... very strange.

Jonathan
irc
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Location: glasgow

Re: Scotland - do you predict that it will be independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

Post by irc »

Jdsk wrote: 12 Apr 2021, 11:12am "Ministers believe Boris Johnson 'will be forced to grant permission for a second Scottish independence referendum if Nicola Sturgeon and Alex Salmond win two thirds of Holyrood seats at election in May'"
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... -vote.html

I know that that is the SNP's plan... but this is a Daily Mail piece about a Sunday Times article about Ministers in London...

... very strange.

Jonathan
The SNP/Alba could get 2/3rd of the seats on 49%of the vote. Are we to have a referendum every 5 years forever?
Psamathe
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Joined: 10 Jan 2014, 8:56pm

Re: Scotland - do you predict that it will be independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

Post by Psamathe »

irc wrote: 12 Apr 2021, 12:00pm
Jdsk wrote: 12 Apr 2021, 11:12am "Ministers believe Boris Johnson 'will be forced to grant permission for a second Scottish independence referendum if Nicola Sturgeon and Alex Salmond win two thirds of Holyrood seats at election in May'"
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... -vote.html

I know that that is the SNP's plan... but this is a Daily Mail piece about a Sunday Times article about Ministers in London...

... very strange.

Jonathan
The SNP/Alba could get 2/3rd of the seats on 49%of the vote. Are we to have a referendum every 5 years forever?
My personal opinion (not qualifying for a vote in any referendum) is that the justification for a referendum now is much stronger because of the lies/untruths told to the Scottish electorate last time, mainly that if they went independent they'd be out of the EU and if they want to remain in the EU then staying part og the Union is their only option. Given the Scottish Brexit vote and those previous untruths certainly strengthens the justification for a referendum now.

Ian
Jdsk
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Re: Scotland - do you predict that it will be independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

Post by Jdsk »

irc wrote: 12 Apr 2021, 12:00pmThe SNP/Alba could get 2/3rd of the seats on 49%of the vote. Are we to have a referendum every 5 years forever?
Without constitutional changes that could easily happen.

Would it be a bad idea?

Jonathan
Jdsk
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Re: Scotland - do you predict that it will be independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

Post by Jdsk »

Psamathe wrote: 12 Apr 2021, 12:11pm
irc wrote: 12 Apr 2021, 12:00pm
Jdsk wrote: 12 Apr 2021, 11:12am "Ministers believe Boris Johnson 'will be forced to grant permission for a second Scottish independence referendum if Nicola Sturgeon and Alex Salmond win two thirds of Holyrood seats at election in May'"
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... -vote.html

I know that that is the SNP's plan... but this is a Daily Mail piece about a Sunday Times article about Ministers in London...

... very strange.
The SNP/Alba could get 2/3rd of the seats on 49%of the vote. Are we to have a referendum every 5 years forever?
My personal opinion (not qualifying for a vote in any referendum) is that the justification for a referendum now is much stronger because of the lies/untruths told to the Scottish electorate last time, mainly that if they went independent they'd be out of the EU and if they want to remain in the EU then staying part og the Union is their only option. Given the Scottish Brexit vote and those previous untruths certainly strengthens the justification for a referendum now.
At the political rather than the constitutional level I think that's a powerful argument.

Jonathan
Tangled Metal
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Re: Scotland - do you predict that it will be independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

Post by Tangled Metal »

Can someone confirm the timings of these events?

Referendum on Scottish independence.
Referendum on leaving the EU.
Cameron's attempt to renegotiate with the rest of the EU a new arrangement prior to launching the leave Referendum.

I thought the first went before the second and the last was about the time of the first or just after it.

If the renegotiation was before the EU leave referendum how does that affect the idea of lies in the Scottish independence referendum regarding the leaving EU with scotexit of the UK?

Of course you could say that renegotiation was cynical and they had no intention of succeeding. Might be right but hypothetically assuming it was genuine intention to remain by getting a new deal would that change the lies argument?

My memory was that Scottish referendum was 2014. Cameron announced he'd renegotiate a new deal with the eu if he won the GE then hold a membership referendum on being in the eu in 2015. Then 2016 was the UK referendum vote on favour of leaving by simple majority.

I'm just curious as to how you know for certain during the 2014 Scottish referendum that Cameron and the pro union campaign were lying when they campaigned with points such as independence resulting in Scottish exit of the EU. That seems like being able to see into the future which afaik is not possible.
Psamathe
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Re: Scotland - do you predict that it will be independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

Post by Psamathe »

Tangled Metal wrote: 12 Apr 2021, 4:33pm Can someone confirm the timings of these events?

Referendum on Scottish independence.
Referendum on leaving the EU.
Cameron's attempt to renegotiate with the rest of the EU a new arrangement prior to launching the leave Referendum.

I thought the first went before the second and the last was about the time of the first or just after it.

If the renegotiation was before the EU leave referendum how does that affect the idea of lies in the Scottish independence referendum regarding the leaving EU with scotexit of the UK?

Of course you could say that renegotiation was cynical and they had no intention of succeeding. Might be right but hypothetically assuming it was genuine intention to remain by getting a new deal would that change the lies argument?

My memory was that Scottish referendum was 2014. Cameron announced he'd renegotiate a new deal with the eu if he won the GE then hold a membership referendum on being in the eu in 2015. Then 2016 was the UK referendum vote on favour of leaving by simple majority.

I'm just curious as to how you know for certain during the 2014 Scottish referendum that Cameron and the pro union campaign were lying when they campaigned with points such as independence resulting in Scottish exit of the EU. That seems like being able to see into the future which afaik is not possible.
I did use the term "lies" but I also used the word "untruths" and "untruths" is better. The Scottish Independence electorate were told (by the pro-Union/English) that if Scotland went independent it would no longer be a member of the EU and that if Scotland wanted to remain part of the EU it should vote to remain in the Union. That was clearly not the case (as Scotland voted to remain part of the Union and are no longer part of the EU) - so "untrue".

Cameron's "renegotiation" was always a joke. Did anybody really believe he could come up with anything that would satisfy e.g. the European Research Group and thus anything that would allow him to avoid an EU Referendum.

Ian
Tangled Metal
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Re: Scotland - do you predict that it will be independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

Post by Tangled Metal »

You're mixing up two independent events. At the time of the 2014 referendum Scottish independence would have meant leaving EU. Aiui even the SNP now admit that was true. Voting not to leave the UK at that time of the referendum would have been the only way to remain in the eu. At that time there was no announcement or Tory policy to renegotiate nor one to have a referendum.

The way you can say the future 2015 situation applied to 2014 referendum campaign is astounding revisionism imho. I guess it suits your politics so you can have that bias.
Psamathe
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Joined: 10 Jan 2014, 8:56pm

Re: Scotland - do you predict that it will be independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

Post by Psamathe »

Tangled Metal wrote: 12 Apr 2021, 5:04pm You're mixing up two independent events. At the time of the 2014 referendum Scottish independence would have meant leaving EU. Aiui even the SNP now admit that was true. Voting not to leave the UK at that time of the referendum would have been the only way to remain in the eu. At that time there was no announcement or Tory policy to renegotiate nor one to have a referendum.

The way you can say the future 2015 situation applied to 2014 referendum campaign is astounding revisionism imho. I guess it suits your politics so you can have that bias.
I don't see it as mixing things. Scotland was told that to remain in the EU it must remain in the Union. Not long after they followed that they were no longer in the EU.

I agree they were independent events but it was in Jan 2013 that Cameron promised that if the Conservatives won the 2015 General election they would hold a referendum on leave/remain in the EU (his Bloomberg speech). so the EU referendum was planned before the Scottish Independence Referendum happened.

Ian
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