Scotland - do you predict that it will be an independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

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Scotland - an independent nation within 10 years?

Yes
48
54%
No
41
46%
 
Total votes: 89

Jdsk
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Re: Scotland - do you predict that it will be independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

Post by Jdsk »

SNP manifesto, including their policy on a referendum on independence:
https://www.snp.org/manifesto/

Jonathan
thirdcrank
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Re: Scotland - do you predict that it will be independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

Post by thirdcrank »

Sorry about this
3_JS232634385.jpg
Can't tell his A's from his LB .....
Jdsk
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Re: Scotland - do you predict that it will be independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

Post by Jdsk »

I still can't decide... was that genuine?

Jonathan
Jdsk
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Re: Scotland - do you predict that it will be independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

Post by Jdsk »

"Implications for United Kingdom nuclear deterrence should the Union fail"
https://www.europeanleadershipnetwork.o ... Gower-.pdf

Jonathan
Jdsk
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Re: Scotland - do you predict that it will be independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

Post by Jdsk »

"Dear heads of state and government of the EU, president of the European council, president and members of the European parliament, president and members of the commission,

"We are Europeans from across the continent and around the world. Naturally, we disagree about many things. But we all agree on this: we want the people of Scotland to know that Europeans everywhere would welcome them back in the European Union if this is their democratic wish... "


https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... t-scotland

Jonathan
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al_yrpal
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Re: Scotland - do you predict that it will be an independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

Post by al_yrpal »

Mickey Mouse hasnt signed it? :D Seriously, if Scots want it they should have it!

Al
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Jdsk
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Re: Scotland - do you predict that it will be an independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

Post by Jdsk »

IFS: "Updated projections of Scotland's fiscal position - and their implications"
https://www.ifs.org.uk/publications/15418

Jonathan
tenbikes
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Re: Scotland - do you predict that it will be an independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

Post by tenbikes »

al_yrpal wrote: 29 Apr 2021, 12:10pm Mickey Mouse hasnt signed it? :D Seriously, if Scots want it they should have it!

Al
It's probably been said before, but as Scottish independence affects the whole of the U K then any referendum needs to be UK wide. Then they might just win!
Ben@Forest
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Re: Scotland - do you predict that it will be an independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

Post by Ben@Forest »

There's been some news and comment about NatWest's (formerly the Royal Bank of Scotland) statement that it would move its headquarters out of an independent Scotland and to London because the Scottish economy was not big enough to be a lender of last resort.

Both the bank and Nicola Sturgeon have stressed that the move of the the registered office does not mean a move of operations or jobs. I understand that but if NatWest got into serious trouble again (and currently 13 years after the 2008 financial crisis it's still 60% owned by the taxpayer) would the English and Welsh taxpayer be pleased to bail it out to help save Scottish jobs? Surely if we bailed it out the quid pro quo would be more jobs transferred to England or Wales anyway?
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Paulatic
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Re: Scotland - do you predict that it will be an independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

Post by Paulatic »

Ben@Forest wrote: 1 May 2021, 5:10pm currently 13 years after the 2008 financial crisis it's still 60% owned by the taxpayer
People in Scotland pay tax so must have some ownership in it then. I don’t see an Independent Scotland gifting our share to E&W or if ownership actually means liability then I can’t see E&W freeing us of it.
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Ben@Forest
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Re: Scotland - do you predict that it will be an independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

Post by Ben@Forest »

Paulatic wrote: 1 May 2021, 6:20pm
Ben@Forest wrote: 1 May 2021, 5:10pm currently 13 years after the 2008 financial crisis it's still 60% owned by the taxpayer
People in Scotland pay tax so must have some ownership in it then. I don’t see an Independent Scotland gifting our share to E&W or if ownership actually means liability then I can’t see E&W freeing us of it.
That's true but it doesn't apply to any new investment if, for example, the rUK has to give NatWest £20 billion then they have leverage over an English company - in the last bailout they got £46 billion.
Jdsk
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Re: Scotland - do you predict that it will be an independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

Post by Jdsk »

Of course the nuclear subs would have to go to England.
There are several options: a leased base in Scotland, an exclave, England, another part of the UK, another country, scrap them.

Jonathan
Jdsk
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Re: Scotland - do you predict that it will be an independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

Post by Jdsk »

The difficulty is presenting the Scots with fact based pluses and minuses of leaving.
I hope it doesn't follow the untruths told in the UK referendum, but maybe it'll just wanting to be free that wins the day.
Yes.

In the previous referendum on independence the quality of the proposal and the details of what what would happen were way ahead of what we saw in *2016.

I'm expecting something at least as detailed if there's another.

But you may well be right on the importance of sentiment.

Jonathan

* And the UK government has never presented an impact assessment of Leaving the EU to Parliament.
Psamathe
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Re: Scotland - do you predict that it will be an independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

Post by Psamathe »

Thinking aloud (i.e. not my analysis and not a prediction) but if independence parties get a decent majority and polls show prospects of going independent and Johnson is unable to just keep saying "No", if Westminster will propose some changes to give the Scottish Parliament more powers e.g. power to set/levy income tax, maybe there are other things. Of course this will take time to set-up and would not happen until after a Scottish Remain Result and reality is would never happen, just Westminster doing another "only way you can stay in the EU ..." lies and deceit. But it only takes a few people to be suckered and it'll swing the vote back to "remain".

Ian
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