Scotland - do you predict that it will be an independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

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Scotland - an independent nation within 10 years?

Yes
48
54%
No
41
46%
 
Total votes: 89

Psamathe
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Joined: 10 Jan 2014, 8:56pm

Re: Scotland - do you predict that it will be independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

Post by Psamathe »

thirdcrank wrote:One immediate benefit for the remainder of the UK would be the immediate reduction in the size of the House of Commons by roughly 10%. It might be a bit more complicated pruning the House of Lords but it would come.
...

Re: HoL: Johnson would just take the opportunity to stuff a load more ex-Eton male Conservative chums into the Lords.

Ian
Jdsk
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Re: Scotland - do you predict that it will be independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

Post by Jdsk »

Psamathe wrote:
Tangled Metal wrote:I seem to recall another referendum where one side claimed changing the current situation would be easy and without problems. Anyone else wonder whether we'll find out an independent Scotland has more problems than the SNP and Alba parties are likely to admit to in the referendum? How close to the vote leave approach to explaining the difficulties of Brexit is the SNP approach to explaining the difficulties of Scottish exit from the Union?

I wonder how many blinkers need closing up to the similarities before the referendum to get that win?

I'm sure you are right that there will be many unforeseen issues arising but they wont have Johnson, Cummings, et al. messing up solutions to those problems, which makes problems much less of a problem. Similarly they'll be able to "chose the best company for the job" rather than having to find ex-Eton Johnson chums to waste billions of tax-payers money on; good old "open tender" something we don't seem to get from Westminster any more and with "transparency" (so long since we've experienced it I'm not even sure how to spell it any more).

There's one very big difference from the 2016 referendum. There would be a party in government that was telling people its policies and wanting to implement them if it won.

Jonathan
thirdcrank
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Re: Scotland - do you predict that it will be independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

Post by thirdcrank »

Psamathe wrote: ... Re: HoL: Johnson would just take the opportunity to stuff a load more ex-Eton male Conservative chums into the Lords. ...


One point you seem to be missing is that whatever you think of him, Boris Johnson is the leader of the Parliamentary majority. That's a majority with Westminster seats in Scotland or without them. It's possible to make all sorts of criticisms of our model of democracy, but it's hardly Boris Johnson's fault that we have FPTP etc. His skill has been in exploiting that - the stock-in-trade of successful politicians. Now, unless he's bluffing, Boris Johnson seems to be opposed to independence, even though at present it would strengthen his majority. Perhaps he knows something about the disadvantages that we are missing on here.
Tangled Metal
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Re: Scotland - do you predict that it will be independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

Post by Tangled Metal »

The shower North of the border just seem to be sticking they're fingers in their ears and making metaphorical childish noises whenever anyone asks them difficult questions about Scottish independence. Really serious questions that any serious politician should at least have serious answers about by now. The SNP have existed under one name or n another since 1934. Do you think it is long enough to think up a workable solution to the many big questions about independence?

IMHO Boris and co are incompetent in many areas, unfortunately not in winning but in general elections, but the SNP are just as bad in their own way. Until Scotland gets a party that gives real world solutions to the issues of independence there is no grown up independence party. It's the main reason for a nationalist party in Scotland to get independence but without putting a realistic plan for it outn there in the public domain, well how can you be sure they're really any better than the current shower at the top of the tory party?
Jdsk
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Re: Scotland - do you predict that it will be independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

Post by Jdsk »

Tangled Metal wrote:The shower North of the border just seem to be sticking they're fingers in their ears and making metaphorical childish noises whenever anyone asks them difficult questions about Scottish independence. Really serious questions that any serious politician should at least have serious answers about by now. The SNP have existed under one name or n another since 1934. Do you think it is long enough to think up a workable solution to the many big questions about independence?

There were detailed policies for the 2014 referendum and I'd expect the same again.

Jonathan
Tangled Metal
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Re: Scotland - do you predict that it will be independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

Post by Tangled Metal »

Did they explain how to break up the Union and divide things like armed services or was the currency/ so called bank of last resort issues? I missed that if they did, along with a lot of other people who know more about this than I. Didn't read it all just got the impression there was a lot of wishful thinking instead of actual planning for when they got their main political goal.
Jdsk
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Re: Scotland - do you predict that it will be independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

Post by Jdsk »

Tangled Metal wrote:Did they explain how to break up the Union and divide things like armed services or was the currency/ so called bank of last resort issues? I missed that if they did, along with a lot of other people who know more about this than I. Didn't read it all just got the impression there was a lot of wishful thinking instead of actual planning for when they got their main political goal.

You didn't miss it. We discussed it in this thread, and you said that you'd go and read it. There's lots of detail on lots of issues.

Jonathan

Jdsk wrote:
NATURAL ANKLING wrote:Hi,
Jdsk wrote:Here's what the Scottish Government produced in 2014:
https://www.gov.scot/publications/scotlands-future/

I imagine that something equally detailed would appear if another referendum is held.

The Wikipedia page describes the relevant legislation and the intended process and timing if Scotland had voted for independence:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum

I did not have time to read all of it.
But it does appear a lot of it talks a lot about independence and better et cetera et cetera.
But it also goes on to say they want to remain in connection with the rest of the UK, Emphasis on protection and currency.
Talked also about connections with EU.
The EU connection is going to take a lot more than dreaming and propaganda to achieve than Scottish independence, because getting into the EU takes a long time and they are small fry to I mean the country is too small.
Lots of propaganda in there especially from Salmond.
i'm not sure how they could stay in connection with all the good points and then chuck out the nuclear weapons from their soil?
That's never gonna work is it, having your cake and eating it.
And I feel that the latest SNP leader keeps making noises saying things like after The election we will re-launch independence and also getting back into the EU.
It should be in the voting peoples interest to whether or not they want independence and back in the EU not simply the whims of one leader and one party.
that's politics I suppose but I see a little gained in putting independence and the EU in front of a lot more other more pressing problems like Covid and also like the falling revenues from the North Sea.
Also I think independence needs to be defined clearly instead of saying They will be better even though they need to hang on to some very important connections with the UK.
If they don't have the sterling then I think if that is outlined as it was in the last indie this will be a deal breaker for sure, salmond sidestepped that question more than once.

...

P.S.I will go and read the wiki bit.

I wouldn't recommend reading it. It's out of date. I only linked to it to illustrate the sort of detail and the proposed process that we should expect if another is held.
Tangled Metal
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Re: Scotland - do you predict that it will be independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

Post by Tangled Metal »

OK! I now know why I haven't read it. The same laughable optimism as the leave campaign. Like the leave campaign attitude of having free access to EU trade zone but not having to adhere to the relevant rules and regulations. There's the preface immediately into something remarkably similar in attitude. Sharing the pound but setting its own fiscal or economic rules. As so many experts say you share a currency you share the rules or rather have them inflicted on you.

If the rest of the "detail" is like that then it only proves my point about similarity to leave campaign.
irc
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Re: Scotland - do you predict that it will be independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

Post by irc »

Jdsk wrote:There were detailed policies for the 2014 referendum and I'd expect the same again.


Like their oil revenue forecast? Actual revenue 10% of forecast. Not getting any better going forward from here.

https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/ ... 0bn-580091
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... cation.pdf

No good answer as to what currency we would use.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland- ... s-25913721
Psamathe
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Joined: 10 Jan 2014, 8:56pm

Re: Scotland - do you predict that it will be independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

Post by Psamathe »

irc wrote:
Jdsk wrote:There were detailed policies for the 2014 referendum and I'd expect the same again.


Like their oil revenue forecast? Actual revenue 10% of forecast. Not getting any better going forward from here.

https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/ ... 0bn-580091
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... cation.pdf

No good answer as to what currency we would use.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland- ... s-25913721

I tend to regard the currency aspect as not of crucial importance (maybe emotional importance to those in Scotland).

And I wonder if these days an "economic case" is less important to an electorate than it used to be (or should be). Just look at the twaddle and lies the UK accepted over "economic case" in the Brexit referendum. Of course it should be important but I wonder if votes are swung on a more emotional basis these days.

Ian
Tangled Metal
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Re: Scotland - do you predict that it will be independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

Post by Tangled Metal »

The point I'm making is that there's more similarities between the Nats in Scotland and the leave campaigners in Westminster who are now in government when it comes to campaigning for Scottish independence. I do not think people should try to kid themselves that Sturgeon and Co are that much better.

The moment they first started promoting the independence without honesty over economic, fiscal, defence, foreign affairs, currency, etc they put themselves into the same kind of playbook as leave campaign. If you're happy with that as peopl eligible to vote on independence then I think you should be prepared to accept the Brexit type situation should independence be voted for. I think Westminster will have learnt a lot from EU negotiators about how to deal with Scottish independence negotiations. That's also with fewer remaining nations to corral into a joint negotiating stance.
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Paulatic
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Re: Scotland - do you predict that it will be independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

Post by Paulatic »

That Scotsman article written in 2018 will have to be written differently in 2021.
4801A108-B3EA-4F5D-8693-C31FD78D9333.jpeg

No one knows what the future holds. Did anyone see Covid coming? As the U.K. government is always decided by the way England votes there are two options.
1 Carry on as we are and let the electoral voice of England decide your future or
2 You take charge of your own destiny.
Talk as much as you want about currency, defence, borders, revenues and whatever else. Yes they are all potential hurdles to jump but wherever there’s a will there’s a way.
Whatever I am, wherever I am, this is me. This is my life

https://stcleve.wordpress.com/category/lejog/
E2E info
thirdcrank
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Re: Scotland - do you predict that it will be independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

Post by thirdcrank »

As I've already posted, I'd favour independence starting at midnight tonight - hard Brexit style.
VinceLedge
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Re: Scotland - do you predict that it will be independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

Post by VinceLedge »

And would favour staying in the UK!
Tangled Metal
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Re: Scotland - do you predict that it will be independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

Post by Tangled Metal »

I don't favour any option I'm not Scottish. It's the only nation I've not got representation of in my ancestry. No connection other than through the Union. If that goes it'll be another potential holiday destination country but I doubt it'll affect me that much coming from England and living in England. Especially since its possibly not a big part of UK economy now or in an independent future. Besides if they can mess up EU trading then Scottish trading is even less important to rUK I reckon.

I do have concern for people in Scotland and those just on the English side of the border who it will affect more.
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