Scotland - do you predict that it will be an independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

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Scotland - an independent nation within 10 years?

Yes
48
54%
No
41
46%
 
Total votes: 89

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NATURAL ANKLING
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Re: Scotland - do you predict that it will be an independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

Post by NATURAL ANKLING »

Hi,
Opinions versus votes?
If you ask the UK except Scotland to vote on whether Scotland get independence or not I think we'll get a more level answer.
And I daresay it would probably be 50-50 a bit like the very slim Brexit result.
Salmond Believed in independence, but it failed.
Sturgeon also believes still.
Just look at that what happened to labour in the last GEs.
Politics and politicians are all about overconfidence/crystal ball gazing.
Most of us will never know the answer to the question as it's going to be a long time coming isn't it.
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Jdsk
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Re: Scotland - do you predict that it will be an independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

Post by Jdsk »

Opinion surveys have flaws. But when half of the people say that they'd be upset if Scotland left the UK I can't see any reason to disbelieve them.

And your assertion was precisely about opinions, not how people would vote:
NATURAL ANKLING wrote: 23 May 2021, 10:43am I don't thing outside Scotland anybody really gives a monkeys one way or another.
Jonathan
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NATURAL ANKLING
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Re: Scotland - do you predict that it will be an independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

Post by NATURAL ANKLING »

Hi,
Okay Jonathan give us all the facts, and then we might go about forming an opinion :lol: :wink:
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Mick F
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Re: Scotland - do you predict that it will be an independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

Post by Mick F »

NATURAL ANKLING wrote: 23 May 2021, 11:25am ............ give us all the facts, and then we might go about forming an opinion.
This is the nub of all things.

Define "facts".

Facts are in the eye of the beholder perhaps?
Mick F. Cornwall
Jdsk
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Re: Scotland - do you predict that it will be an independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

Post by Jdsk »

There's an enormous difference between facts and opinions. And it's probably time for the canonical quote on the subject.

The results of an opinion poll asking people what they think are enormously more reliable as a guide to what they think than anecdotes from individuals or second-hand anecdotes from their acquaintances.

Jonathan
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Mick F
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Re: Scotland - do you predict that it will be an independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

Post by Mick F »

Opinion polls are better than nothing, but facts is facts.
Facts can only be defined after the event.

Opinions predict just like Mystic Meg used to do.
Mick F. Cornwall
Oldjohnw
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Re: Scotland - do you predict that it will be an independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

Post by Oldjohnw »

NATURAL ANKLING wrote: 23 May 2021, 10:43am

I don't thing outside Scotland anybody really gives a monkeys one way or another.

Yet without polls you cannot possibly know, unless you have personally asked every person outside Scotland.
Last edited by Oldjohnw on 23 May 2021, 5:43pm, edited 1 time in total.
John
Jdsk
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Re: Scotland - do you predict that it will be an independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

Post by Jdsk »

Do they have black swans in Scotland?

: - )

Jonathan
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Paulatic
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Re: Scotland - do you predict that it will be an independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

Post by Paulatic »

NATURAL ANKLING wrote: 23 May 2021, 10:43am But maybe not a good idea at the moment and certainly maybe not a good idea to spend so much time talking about it in the Scottish parliament that the SNP do
Really?
Are you sure you haven’t been listening to the Tories and Unionist press.
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thirdcrank
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Re: Scotland - do you predict that it will be an independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

Post by thirdcrank »

I've no idea what the constitutional niceties are here but I assume that independence would involve Westminster amending or scrapping the Act of Union.

How about what might be termed "mirror" referendums? Something on the following lines:

The electorate in England (and further thought needed for Wales and Northern Ireland) would be asked to choose beteen

A) Revocation of the Act of Union
B) Inviting the Scottish people to remain part of the UK

The choice for the Scottish electorate might be

A) Revocation of the Act of Union
B) Inviting the people of the rest of the UK to allow them to remain in the UK
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Re: Scotland - do you predict that it will be an independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

Post by rualexander »

sukuinage wrote: 20 May 2021, 10:15am Haven't read through all the posts on here but I've got a couple of questions for those who are in favour of Scottish independence:

- How do you reconcile independence with EU membership? The EU wants to reduce independence of the nation state and the end result will be less autonomy rather than more. Do you somehow think that the EU will have more interest in Scotland's problems than Westminster?
- Which currency will your debt be denominated in? Euro? English Pound? Some new currency? How do you imagine that this will be financed? This is the biggest single issue for Scotland which the SNP are fudging.
- Why would the SNP hold a referendum when it would, effectively, remove the whole raison d'etre of the party? They would no longer be able to play silly political games with Westminster and would have to actually try and run the country in the face of mounting criticism from internal political opponents. They're politicians, they're not interested in the likes of you lot, just power!
I'm pretty sure that there won't be Indyref2 any time soon purely because of my last point - we can see in a couple of years if I'm correct :)
An independent Scotland within the EU will have the ability to leave the EU if the EU goes in a direction the people of Scotland are not happy with.
And yes I think that the EU will have more interest in Scotland's problems than Westminster. It could hardly have less interest.

What is this English Pound that you speak of?
The UK uses the Pound Sterling as it's currency.
As mentioned already the independence proposals on currency are already set out and will no doubt be further refined in the run up to any forthcoming referendum.
Oldjohnw
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Re: Scotland - do you predict that it will be an independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

Post by Oldjohnw »

As has been pointed out earlier, an Independent Scotland within the EU would have significantly more autonomy than a Scotland within the UK.

The UK was able to make its own decision to leave the EU. Currently, Scotland cannot make a decision to leave the UK and was dragged out of the EU.

An independent Scotland would gain control of its borders, have its own foreign policy and military, set its own taxes and social security and much, much more. Just as the UK did when in the EU.
John
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NATURAL ANKLING
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Re: Scotland - do you predict that it will be an independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

Post by NATURAL ANKLING »

Hi,
I think there is a difference there in that the UK could simply lift the drawbridge.
And it's obvious that the EU couldn't do anything about that.
But Scotland is not independent is it.
Scotland doesn't have its own currency either and the only way they will be any movement towards independence that they call independence which isn't really independence at all Is if they hang onto the sterling for as long as they need it to prop them up!

this is and will always be the crux of the matter what currency will they use.
I don't think the UK has said anything about currency hanging on et cetera.
It's simply wishful thinking by the Scotland.

Having your cake and eating it/cherry picking if you wanna use EU lingo.
NA Thinks Just End 2 End Return + Bivvy - Some day Soon I hope
You'll Still Find Me At The Top Of A Hill
Please forgive the poor Grammar I blame it on my mobile and phat thinkers.
Jdsk
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Re: Scotland - do you predict that it will be an independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

Post by Jdsk »

NATURAL ANKLING wrote: 28 May 2021, 5:41pmI think there is a difference there in that the UK could simply lift the drawbridge.
And it's obvious that the EU couldn't do anything about that.
But Scotland is not independent is it.
I think that's the point that Oldjohnw has made above: Scotland (or any other country or the UK as was) would have more autonomy as a Member State of the EU than it currently does as part of the UK. That's illustrated by that ability to leave by unilateral decision, but applies to many other powers.

Jonathan
Last edited by Jdsk on 28 May 2021, 5:50pm, edited 1 time in total.
Jdsk
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Re: Scotland - do you predict that it will be an independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

Post by Jdsk »

NATURAL ANKLING wrote: 28 May 2021, 5:41pmScotland doesn't have its own currency either and the only way they will be any movement towards independence that they call independence which isn't really independence at all Is if they hang onto the sterling for as long as they need it to prop them up!
How would the use of sterling be "propping them up"? It would be a cautious pragmatic step towards whatever they choose.

Or are you thinking of the fiscal transfers? Losing those would be a genuine financial hit, as discussed above.

Jonathan
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