Attention Mick F!! (pubs open 12th April)

Use this board for general non-cycling-related chat, or to introduce yourself to the forum.
Syd
Posts: 1230
Joined: 23 Sep 2018, 2:27pm

Re: Attention Mick F!!

Post by Syd »

pwa wrote:The Government can't win on this. If they do as they are doing in Scotland and don't give dates, they get criticised for not giving businesses enough notice of when to aim for. If they do give "at the earliest" dates they get criticised for prematurely raising expectations.

And there is another factor. Patience is wearing thin amongst people yearning to be set free. Many of us here are old codgers, but imagine if you were young again and had been restrained for over a year, unable to socialise properly or live the life you want to. They need hope in order to have the motivation not to break away right now.

FM has just given some dates but in reality it’s basically a holding statement for the next 8 weeks.
User avatar
mjr
Posts: 20308
Joined: 20 Jun 2011, 7:06pm
Location: Norfolk or Somerset, mostly
Contact:

Re: Attention Mick F!!

Post by mjr »

Tangled Metal wrote:Imho the error is in the general population which is simply ignoring the details of the roadmap because it doesn't suit their desire to be free of this virus. You can't blame people for wishful thinking and turning a blind eye to details they don't want you read about.

Who "don't want you read about"? (and is a word missing from that?)

I don't think it's the general population's fault that pretty much all the news media are presenting this as graphics of dates along with what's going to be derestricted. That was entirely predictable, so it is government's fault for not doing more to avoid or discourage it.

However the details are in the roadmap and selective reading isn't going to change the fact we do need to only carry out these reductions in restrictions when appropriate according to the data.

I agree but now that it's been presented to the masses like this, I doubt Boris has the nerve to slow it down unless it goes really really wrong.

pwa wrote:The Government can't win on this. If they do as they are doing in Scotland and don't give dates, they get criticised for not giving businesses enough notice of when to aim for. If they do give "at the earliest" dates they get criticised for prematurely raising expectations.

You are probably right that they will get some criticism either way. So something else should make the decision. How about picking the option least likely to lead to more avoidable deaths? So don't give dates, but say you will give businesses a week or two weeks or whatever notice.

And there is another factor. Patience is wearing thin amongst people yearning to be set free. Many of us here are old codgers, but imagine if you were young again and had been restrained for over a year, unable to socialise properly or live the life you want to. They need hope in order to have the motivation not to break away right now.

And imagine how badly it could go wrong if all restrictions are lifted before all of the young workers have been vaccinated — and that is currently the shockingly irresponsible plan in England. Is it all because many "old codgers" don't want to wait another two or three months before not using masks and invading people's space again and old codgers tend to be Boris's core vote?
MJR, mostly pedalling 3-speed roadsters. KL+West Norfolk BUG incl social easy rides http://www.klwnbug.co.uk
All the above is CC-By-SA and no other implied copyright license to Cycle magazine.
User avatar
mjr
Posts: 20308
Joined: 20 Jun 2011, 7:06pm
Location: Norfolk or Somerset, mostly
Contact:

Re: Attention Mick F!!

Post by mjr »

Local government now also publishing date-headed charts with "leaving lockdown – here are the key dates" https://twitter.com/NorfolkCC/status/13 ... 7155963911

But no, I'm sure it's all the public's fault again, for thinking these dates are attached.
MJR, mostly pedalling 3-speed roadsters. KL+West Norfolk BUG incl social easy rides http://www.klwnbug.co.uk
All the above is CC-By-SA and no other implied copyright license to Cycle magazine.
pwa
Posts: 17371
Joined: 2 Oct 2011, 8:55pm

Re: Attention Mick F!!

Post by pwa »

mjr wrote:Local government now also publishing date-headed charts with "leaving lockdown – here are the key dates" https://twitter.com/NorfolkCC/status/13 ... 7155963911

But no, I'm sure it's all the public's fault again, for thinking these dates are attached.

I think people need some pencilled in dates to aim for, otherwise utter despondency is likely to lead to a breakdown in compliance. At this point it is largely about holding society together for a couple of months more, buying time to get the vaccines rolled out further and getting us past the winter. I think people need a Promised Land on the horizon to make it seem worthwhile.
User avatar
mjr
Posts: 20308
Joined: 20 Jun 2011, 7:06pm
Location: Norfolk or Somerset, mostly
Contact:

Re: Attention Mick F!!

Post by mjr »

pwa wrote:I think people need some pencilled in dates to aim for, otherwise utter despondency is likely to lead to a breakdown in compliance. At this point it is largely about holding society together for a couple of months more, buying time to get the vaccines rolled out further and getting us past the winter.

But they're not planning to do that! Government is planning to throw the under-50s to the covid lions at roughly midsummer! If they do that, a hell of a lot of workers will be crippled by "long covid" before winter.

I think people need a Promised Land on the horizon to make it seem worthwhile.

So they should focus on what will be possible when it is known and say that X, Y and Z are in the future.

Letting people think that a Promised Land ("sunlit uplands"?) can be reached, that this can be over before the world is vaccinated (and probably then some) is dishonest. It's all those lies (for example, "we can turn the tide within the next 12 weeks and I’m absolutely confident that we can send coronavirus packing in this country") which eventually leads to a breakdown in trust which leads to a breakdown in compliance.
MJR, mostly pedalling 3-speed roadsters. KL+West Norfolk BUG incl social easy rides http://www.klwnbug.co.uk
All the above is CC-By-SA and no other implied copyright license to Cycle magazine.
User avatar
Redvee
Posts: 2465
Joined: 8 Mar 2010, 8:58pm

Re: Attention Mick F!! (pubs open 12th April)

Post by Redvee »

We're overlooking one bit matter here, it's Mick's round isn't it? :lol:
pwa
Posts: 17371
Joined: 2 Oct 2011, 8:55pm

Re: Attention Mick F!!

Post by pwa »

mjr wrote:
.....Letting people think that a Promised Land ("sunlit uplands"?) can be reached, that this can be over before the world is vaccinated (and probably then some) is dishonest. It's all those lies (for example, "we can turn the tide within the next 12 weeks and I’m absolutely confident that we can send coronavirus packing in this country") which eventually leads to a breakdown in trust which leads to a breakdown in compliance.

You are concerned about the last restrictions being lifted completely before vaccination of the adult population is completed, which is a good point and certainly worth thinking about. But the restrictions on the social lives of young people must be lifted this summer, at some point. We cannot ask them to distance from each other for much longer. Imagine being 17 or 18 and having already spent a full year being told not to physically meet up with friends. At my age that is do-able, but at their age it is an enormous ask. We have to be looking at setting them free as early as we possibly can, as a matter of urgency. I get what you are saying about the exact timing and how it relates to the vaccination programme, but this really has to be the goal we are aiming for. Freeing young people from this awful situation they have been in, for over a year, mostly to protect other people. Freeing them will inevitably also free the virus to some extent, so the unvaccinated will have to retreat from society or take their chances.
User avatar
Mick F
Spambuster
Posts: 56359
Joined: 7 Jan 2007, 11:24am
Location: Tamar Valley, Cornwall

Re: Attention Mick F!! (pubs open 12th April)

Post by Mick F »

Redvee wrote:We're overlooking one bit matter here, it's Mick's round isn't it? :lol:
If you can turn up at The Rising Sun, or the Queens Head, or The Buccaneer, or the Cornish Inn, or the White Hart when they're open, I'd be delighted! :D

https://www.google.co.uk/maps/place/The ... d-4.213203

https://www.google.co.uk/maps/place/The ... -4.2252719

https://www.google.co.uk/maps/place/Buc ... d-4.213628

https://www.google.co.uk/maps/place/The ... -4.2140018

https://www.google.co.uk/maps/place/The ... -4.2360563
Mick F. Cornwall
Postboxer
Posts: 1929
Joined: 24 Jul 2013, 5:19pm

Re: Attention Mick F!! (pubs open 12th April)

Post by Postboxer »

Perhaps they shouldn't have announced dates, but merely said it would be at least 5 weeks between stages and they would monitor whether they could move to the next stage. The way they have announced it looks like they're fairly sure these dates can be met unless something goes dramatically wrong. Then there was another report saying Boris is confident these dates can be met, well he would have to be wouldn't he, otherwise he is a fool for announcing them.
Halla
Posts: 260
Joined: 27 Apr 2008, 9:28pm

Re: Attention Mick F!! (pubs open 12th April)

Post by Halla »

Just as the announcement of Monday starts to be discussed.

The infection rate in parts of south east rose marginally yesterday.

Vaccination rates have also fallen this week.

Doctor surgery vaccinations very slow now.

Here we go again.
User avatar
mjr
Posts: 20308
Joined: 20 Jun 2011, 7:06pm
Location: Norfolk or Somerset, mostly
Contact:

Re: Attention Mick F!!

Post by mjr »

pwa wrote:
mjr wrote:.....Letting people think that a Promised Land ("sunlit uplands"?) can be reached, that this can be over before the world is vaccinated (and probably then some) is dishonest. It's all those lies (for example, "we can turn the tide within the next 12 weeks and I’m absolutely confident that we can send coronavirus packing in this country") which eventually leads to a breakdown in trust which leads to a breakdown in compliance.

You are concerned about the last restrictions being lifted completely before vaccination of the adult population is completed, which is a good point and certainly worth thinking about. But the restrictions on the social lives of young people must be lifted this summer, at some point. We cannot ask them to distance from each other for much longer. Imagine being 17 or 18 and having already spent a full year being told not to physically meet up with friends.

Even 17 and 18 year olds would have to imagine that, because they have been able to meet up in sixes for much of last year.

I think it is fine to lift some restrictions, to sixes or to 30, but what is not fine is lifting all legal restrictions before the young are allowed the vaccine. If we want to prioritise them (and I accept your arguments are persuasive, but I'm not sure they should have priority above potential superspreaders), then we should do so in vaccination first, probably by using the Pfizer doses for 16-18 because I think it's been tested and approved for that more than OxAZ.

It would be cruel to 16-25 to lift all restrictions before they are allowed vaccination because it will be effectively coercing them into non-covid-secure workplaces and venues if they want anything resembling normal life. Pretty much as soon as the public health regulations expire or are repealed, there will be a race to the bottom among workplaces and venues to lower their costs and do the minimum they can get away with.

At my age that is do-able, but at their age it is an enormous ask. We have to be looking at setting them free as early as we possibly can, as a matter of urgency. I get what you are saying about the exact timing and how it relates to the vaccination programme, but this really has to be the goal we are aiming for. Freeing young people from this awful situation they have been in, for over a year, mostly to protect other people. Freeing them will inevitably also free the virus to some extent, so the unvaccinated will have to retreat from society or take their chances.

I'd be happy to see them freed, but the current plan will kill some unnecessarily, which is just wrong. "The unvaccinated will have to retreat from society or take their chances" was not a valid argument against lockdown and it's not a valid argument for premature relaxation.
MJR, mostly pedalling 3-speed roadsters. KL+West Norfolk BUG incl social easy rides http://www.klwnbug.co.uk
All the above is CC-By-SA and no other implied copyright license to Cycle magazine.
pwa
Posts: 17371
Joined: 2 Oct 2011, 8:55pm

Re: Attention Mick F!!

Post by pwa »

mjr wrote:
...........It would be cruel to 16-25 to lift all restrictions before they are allowed vaccination because it will be effectively coercing them into non-covid-secure workplaces and venues if they want anything resembling normal life............


You don't accept that people in that age group have a very low chance of being seriously affected by Covid? This is inevitably a cost/benefit calculation, and if the risk from Covid to an individual in the age group were very low it could well be a risk worth taking for the freedom it brings.

In Wales young people have officially been sticking to their bubbles. My own kids are in their early twenties and have been quite strict about it. But as soon as the vulnerable (how do we define them?) are protected by vaccines, the focus must change to allowing young people to resume their lives. They have made a huge sacrifice and primarily for others rather than themselves. We should be at least starting to think about putting their needs at the top of the list.
User avatar
[XAP]Bob
Posts: 19793
Joined: 26 Sep 2008, 4:12pm

Re: Attention Mick F!! (pubs open 12th April)

Post by [XAP]Bob »

Protection comes from having insignificant community transmission, many of the most vulnerable either cannot have a vaccine (fortunately for me this one wasn’t live, so I could have it) OR (and this includes me) quite possibly won’t mount a significant immune response to either the vaccine or the virus.

The only true protection is low community transmission, which is something this government has never taken steps to achieve. They’ve taken some steps to keep the community transmission from being catastrophic, but none to actually make it reasonably safe.
A shortcut has to be a challenge, otherwise it would just be the way. No situation is so dire that panic cannot make it worse.
There are two kinds of people in this world: those can extrapolate from incomplete data.
User avatar
mjr
Posts: 20308
Joined: 20 Jun 2011, 7:06pm
Location: Norfolk or Somerset, mostly
Contact:

Re: Attention Mick F!!

Post by mjr »

pwa wrote:
mjr wrote:
...........It would be cruel to 16-25 to lift all restrictions before they are allowed vaccination because it will be effectively coercing them into non-covid-secure workplaces and venues if they want anything resembling normal life............


You don't accept that people in that age group have a very low chance of being seriously affected by Covid? This is inevitably a cost/benefit calculation, and if the risk from Covid to an individual in the age group were very low it could well be a risk worth taking for the freedom it brings.

I accept that they have a very low chance of death by covid (in the region of 2 in a million), assuming no other factors, but a premature lifting of all restrictions is estimated to produce thousands more hospitalisations of young people than keeping some restrictions until at least September. How is that being fair to them?

Cost-benefit... what exactly is the cost of three months of restricting most gatherings to 30, requiring hospitality and entertainment to be mostly outside during the summer, and masks and ventilation in shops and workplaces, for example? And is that cost really not worth the benefit of keeping people out of hospital and denying coronavirus the human incubators for new deadlier variants?

In Wales young people have officially been sticking to their bubbles. My own kids are in their early twenties and have been quite strict about it. But as soon as the vulnerable (how do we define them?) are protected by vaccines, the focus must change to allowing young people to resume their lives. They have made a huge sacrifice and primarily for others rather than themselves. We should be at least starting to think about putting their needs at the top of the list.

I'm fine with that, but why does "allowing young people to resume their lives" mean lifting all the restrictions maybe three months too soon?

And what about the 35-50 group who will be put at greatest risk of serious covid as a result of this policy? And how will the young people feel if premature relaxation done in their name results in a surge of deaths or a new variant? That will mess with the minds of many.
MJR, mostly pedalling 3-speed roadsters. KL+West Norfolk BUG incl social easy rides http://www.klwnbug.co.uk
All the above is CC-By-SA and no other implied copyright license to Cycle magazine.
User avatar
Mick F
Spambuster
Posts: 56359
Joined: 7 Jan 2007, 11:24am
Location: Tamar Valley, Cornwall

Re: Attention Mick F!! (pubs open 12th April)

Post by Mick F »

Back to the pub subject.

Out on a ride this morning, and went past The Rising Sun Inn.
The landlord (Derek) was out in the garden with another chap and a digger.
Had chat with Derek, and passed the time of day with him and his mate as they had stopped for a cuppa.

They've dug out the rear carpark to make it bigger, but the most important (and relevant) thing is that they're levelling out the rear part of the garden to extend the flat part so they can make a semi-permanent roof over it all.

Excellent idea. The pub is noted for it's outside views of the valley, and when the weather is nice, the garden would be full. When the new rules come in, the garden will be full again! :D
Mick F. Cornwall
Post Reply