I don't like living in England....

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Jdsk
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Re: I don't like living in England....

Post by Jdsk »

Jdsk wrote: 8 May 2021, 11:45amPsephologists are currently describing "the Brexit unwind" and "incumbency advantage".
So... now that we have the results in Wales and the nearly final results in Scotland...

... how is it possible to distinguish "incumbency advantage" from whatever it is about Johnson that attracts voters in England but doesn't work elsewhere?

Jonathan
Stevek76
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Re: I don't like living in England....

Post by Stevek76 »

Not even all parts of England
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Jdsk
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Re: I don't like living in England....

Post by Jdsk »

Are there regional variations in England in support for Johnson beyond the distribution of party support? More, please.

Jonathan
Jdsk
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Re: I don't like living in England....

Post by Jdsk »

Jdsk wrote: 8 May 2021, 5:43pm
Jdsk wrote: 8 May 2021, 11:45amPsephologists are currently describing "the Brexit unwind" and "incumbency advantage".
So... now that we have the results in Wales and the nearly final results in Scotland...

... how is it possible to distinguish "incumbency advantage" from whatever it is about Johnson that attracts voters in England but doesn't work elsewhere?
Curtice's first analysis:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-57040175

Jonathan
Stevek76
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Re: I don't like living in England....

Post by Stevek76 »

Jdsk wrote: 8 May 2021, 5:55pm Are there regional variations in England in support for Johnson beyond the distribution of party support? More, please.

Jonathan
Well they lost the West of England metro mayor to lab (though green took a huge chunk of 1st pref votes out of Labour, particularly in Bristol)

As in the link you posted southeast seems to be down for con and neutral for lab

They've also just lost the Cambridgeshire metro area to Labour.

A great deal of this does need some proper analysis, media reports tend to over focus on seats (distorted by poor electoral systems) rather than vote share and also don't tend to look too much at turnout.

Eg in Hartlepool, 5k votes of the combined con+bxp vote did not make it to the con candidate this time, but labour's turnout was down more.
Last edited by Stevek76 on 8 May 2021, 7:09pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Jdsk
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Re: I don't like living in England....

Post by Jdsk »

Thanks.

And I agree about the reporting.

Jonathan
Stevek76
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Re: I don't like living in England....

Post by Stevek76 »

Once thing that is standing out to me in these elections is that people in urban areas who've invested in cycling infrastructure (be that proper separated tracks, low traffic neighbourhoods or both) and generally reduced the dominance of motor traffic have been re-elected with increased support.

And the anti LTN candidates in London have all fallen hilariously flat.
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Jdsk
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Re: I don't like living in England....

Post by Jdsk »

That's being discussed in Oxford city as we type...

Jonathan
atoz
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Re: I don't like living in England....

Post by atoz »

markjohnobrien wrote: 8 May 2021, 10:53am
atoz wrote: 8 May 2021, 10:39am The job of a political opposition is to oppose. If they are seeming to agree with the government, why vote for them?

As for blaming Corbyn, he hasn't actually been leader for around 17 months. That won't fly.

When you get people as dissimilar as Adonis and Owen Jones agreeing that Starmer needs to consider his position you know things are bad. Based on that it may be a case of not if but when. And when that happens, goodbye and good riddance.

I used to be a Labour voter. Not any more.
Is that because you want Labour to move more to the left or, conversely, move towards a more Blairite position as these are the current debates splitting the Labour Party asunder.
In the words of the Borg, irrelevant. Starmer is an amateur, and he is a loser. He is a poor communicator, and is surrounded by an echo chamber. Whatever the politics of the man, he isn't going to win a general election, assuming by then the Labour Party is able to fight one. When a right wing politician and a left wing journalist agree on this point you have to take notice.
atoz
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Re: I don't like living in England....

Post by atoz »

thirdcrank wrote: 8 May 2021, 10:52am It's not the Opposition's role to oppose everything willy-nilly.
You have to bear in mind that under first past the post we have an oppositional political culture. That's the point of the opposition. Starmer has been doing a Gordon Brown back in 2010 "I agree with Nick". Doesn't work now any more than it did then. I know people on this forum want to believe otherwise, but the reality is that the jury has returned their verdict. Time for a new leader, hopefully not another privileged London lawyer this time...any bets on a northern female one?
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al_yrpal
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Re: I don't like living in England....

Post by al_yrpal »

Mandelson wasnt specifically blaming Corbyn for Labours poor performance he was simply commenting that Corbyn was raised time and time again in a negative sense on doorsteps and that really surprised him. So, the spectre of Corbyn persists.... :( and Starmer obviously hasnt exorcised it :lol:

Apart from MacDonald prominent Corbyn supporters seem to remain in senior positions. Labour has always been a coalition of moderates and extremists like any political party but it doesnt seem to me to have visibly moved towards the centre apart from Starmer. Personally I think thats a major part of their problem

Al
Reuse, recycle, thus do your bit to save the planet.... Get stuff at auctions, Dump, Charity Shops, Facebook Marketplace, Ebay, Car Boots. Choose an Old House, and a Banger ..... And cycle as often as you can......
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661-Pete
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Re: I don't like living in England....

Post by 661-Pete »

Hmmm.... thread seems to have strayed off the original topic, which was something about 'England not being such a Green and Pleasant Land'. I suppose that's inevitable, given recent political stuff. But in one sense England does seem to be getting Greener - the party has done pretty well in the counties (if not in Hartlepool).

I don't expect a Green revolution in my lifetime, whatever may have transpired in Germany. Probably not soon enough to save the planet. :(
al_yrpal wrote: 8 May 2021, 2:29pm Trots is my term for the extreme left wing people who were once in banned organisations like the Militant Tendency and were readmitted under Corbyn and are now often members of Momentum.
Would that include Greens such as Mrs P and me (both paid-up members)? After all the Greens have pretty strongly left-wing policies - 'left'er than Labour in some issues. Whether more 'left' than Militant or Momentum - I wouldn't know.

Perhaps we need a proper definition of 'left'-ness. And I think we agreed in an earlier thread that "Trot" has a rather limited application...
Suppose that this room is a lift. The support breaks and down we go with ever-increasing velocity.
Let us pass the time by performing physical experiments...
--- Arthur Eddington (creator of the Eddington Number).
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al_yrpal
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Re: I don't like living in England....

Post by al_yrpal »

Im pretty sure I am safe Pete. I'm a member of the Ramblers, the National Trust and the U3A. I have a nice piccy of you on an Extinction Rebellion march, I reckon you are a marked man! :lol:

Al
Reuse, recycle, thus do your bit to save the planet.... Get stuff at auctions, Dump, Charity Shops, Facebook Marketplace, Ebay, Car Boots. Choose an Old House, and a Banger ..... And cycle as often as you can......
Ben@Forest
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Re: I don't like living in England....

Post by Ben@Forest »

661-Pete wrote: 8 May 2021, 9:12pm I don't expect a Green revolution in my lifetime, whatever may have transpired in Germany. Probably not soon enough to save the planet.
As a long-time mainstream party though the German Greens were in coalition with the SPD in the late 90s/early 2000s (and backed NATO airstrikes on Serbia though being ostensibly pacifist). So they've been there before. They have had the usual run of sex scandals, paedophilia scandals and corruption scandals that affect any large, long-time party. As the Greens do better, your potential to be disappointed with them will rise....
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Re: I don't like living in England....

Post by PH »

Jdsk wrote: 8 May 2021, 12:30pm And Green representation at Holyrood looks likely to be very important in the next few years...

Jonathan
in exactly the same way the DUP were important to May's Tory Government.
Like or dislike the policies, it's hard to argue that this is in any way democratic.
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