Who's had their second jab?

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jo' bo
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Joined: 8 May 2021, 8:21pm

Re: Who's had their second jab?

Post by jo' bo »

Bonefishblues wrote: 17 May 2021, 5:36pm It reduces transmission to others by 50%. In epidemiological terms, that's huge.

...and I with yours Jonathan
But what was the transmission rate before you knocked 50% off?

It was minuscule to start off with all that will do is,stop the number of cases increasing, the number infected will stay constant

Which for the last time I was paying attention stood at a million people
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[XAP]Bob
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Joined: 26 Sep 2008, 4:12pm

Re: Who's had their second jab?

Post by [XAP]Bob »

jo' bo wrote: 17 May 2021, 5:26pm What we have agreed is that those with compromised immune systems are not save from me or from those who are vaccinated, the only safe course of action for them is to stay in and wear a mask, quite possibly for ever
At some point the risk is low enough that it's worth us going out anyway.
The extreme being "am I more likely to get hit by a bus than catch covid". If the chances were that low then staying in because of covid would be ridiculous (assuming you ever went out to start with).

The vaccine is highly effective at reducing transmission, and also at reducing serious illness - which has a serious impact on availability of healthcare at all levels. Evidence from the transplant community is also very positive in terms of people who are medically immuno-suppressed.

Widespread vaccination is an essential tool in reducing the prevalence of the disease to an acceptable level (given that we still haven't actually implemented any realistic sort of quarantine yet). If I was in Australia then the need for a vaccine would be significantly less pressing, because they did implement a quarantine - and they did it when they were told to by the scientists.


You're right in one aspect - an individual vaccination makes as much difference as a single person taking one pebble from the beach (almost none), but when a large number of people start taking just one pebble from the beach then there are soon no pebbles on the beach at all - and every large number of people starts with just one.


There really is no concept of doing things that are even marginally inconvenient for the good of others any more. Little wonder the roads are such a horrible place to be.
A shortcut has to be a challenge, otherwise it would just be the way. No situation is so dire that panic cannot make it worse.
There are two kinds of people in this world: those can extrapolate from incomplete data.
Jdsk
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Joined: 5 Mar 2019, 5:42pm

Re: Who's had their second jab?

Post by Jdsk »

jo' bo wrote: 17 May 2021, 5:26pmWhat we have agreed is that those with compromised immune systems are not save from me or from those who are vaccinated, the only safe course of action for them is to stay in and wear a mask, quite possibly for ever
More nonsense. Many people with compromised immune systems can safely be vaccinated, and it can reduce their chance of being infected. And of course that infection could be more damaging than in other people.

Anyone in this position should talk to their GP well before being vaccinated. It's likely that an opinion will be sought from a specialist, and they're very used to that by now.

And the reduction in transmission that follows vaccination of other people will protect people with immunodeficiency.

(There is an obvious risk in some types of immunodeficiency from live viruses but they aren't relevant to this outbreak in the UK at the moment.)

Jonathan
Bonefishblues
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Location: Near Bicester Oxon

Re: Who's had their second jab?

Post by Bonefishblues »

jo' bo wrote: 17 May 2021, 5:42pm
Bonefishblues wrote: 17 May 2021, 5:36pm It reduces transmission to others by 50%. In epidemiological terms, that's huge.

...and I with yours Jonathan
But what was the transmission rate before you knocked 50% off?

It was minuscule to start off with all that will do is,stop the number of cases increasing, the number infected will stay constant

Which for the last time I was paying attention stood at a million people
These are highly contagious viruses. All variants. 'Miniscule' is wrong, simply wrong.

I'm sorry, but you really don't understand this area.
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[XAP]Bob
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Joined: 26 Sep 2008, 4:12pm

Re: Who's had their second jab?

Post by [XAP]Bob »

jo' bo wrote: 17 May 2021, 5:42pm
Bonefishblues wrote: 17 May 2021, 5:36pm It reduces transmission to others by 50%. In epidemiological terms, that's huge.

...and I with yours Jonathan
But what was the transmission rate before you knocked 50% off?

It was minuscule to start off with all that will do is,stop the number of cases increasing, the number infected will stay constant

Which for the last time I was paying attention stood at a million people

Erm no - tha reductoin in transmission rate directly impacts the R value - that is what actually drives the change in numbers. If you half the transmission then you halve R (approximately), and that's a MASSIVE change.
A shortcut has to be a challenge, otherwise it would just be the way. No situation is so dire that panic cannot make it worse.
There are two kinds of people in this world: those can extrapolate from incomplete data.
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[XAP]Bob
Posts: 19793
Joined: 26 Sep 2008, 4:12pm

Re: Who's had their second jab?

Post by [XAP]Bob »

Jdsk wrote: 17 May 2021, 5:44pm
jo' bo wrote: 17 May 2021, 5:26pmWhat we have agreed is that those with compromised immune systems are not save from me or from those who are vaccinated, the only safe course of action for them is to stay in and wear a mask, quite possibly for ever
More nonsense. Many people with compromised immune systems can safely be vaccinated, and it can reduce their chance of being infected. And of course that infection could be more damaging than in other people.

Anyone in this position should talk to their GP well before being vaccinated. It's likely that an opinion will be sought from a specialist, and they're very used to that by now.

And the reduction in transmission that follows vaccination of other people will protect people with immunodeficiency.

(There is an obvious risk in some types of immunodeficiency from live viruses but they aren't relevant to this outbreak in the UK at the moment.)

Jonathan
Current COVID vaccines are not counter indicated for any immune compromised groups that I am aware of.
My kids have to have the flu jab rather than the nasal spray because I can't be around them for two weeks if they have the live vaccine - that's the kind of decision that is made constantly by people with compromised immune systems - we've got specialists behind us, we have a pretty good idea of what we are doing....

The reduction in risk is compounded by every real effort to reduce it. Vaccination is one of those, masks, distancing, hand washing, etc are others. Given that we are reducing the restrictions on the behavioural modes of risk reduction we really need the non-behavioural factors to be as strong as possible.
A shortcut has to be a challenge, otherwise it would just be the way. No situation is so dire that panic cannot make it worse.
There are two kinds of people in this world: those can extrapolate from incomplete data.
Jdsk
Posts: 24629
Joined: 5 Mar 2019, 5:42pm

Re: Who's had their second jab?

Post by Jdsk »

jo' bo wrote: 17 May 2021, 5:42pm
Bonefishblues wrote: 17 May 2021, 5:36pm It reduces transmission to others by 50%. In epidemiological terms, that's huge.

...and I with yours Jonathan
But what was the transmission rate before you knocked 50% off?
The transmission rate was high enough to kill 120,000 people in the UK.
jo' bo wrote: 17 May 2021, 5:42pm
Bonefishblues wrote: 17 May 2021, 5:36pm It reduces transmission to others by 50%. In epidemiological terms, that's huge.

...and I with yours Jonathan
But what was the transmission rate before you knocked 50% off?

It was minuscule to start off with all that will do is,stop the number of cases increasing, the number infected will stay constant

Which for the last time I was paying attention stood at a million people
What's the difference between "the number of cases" and "the number infected"?

Jonathan
Jdsk
Posts: 24629
Joined: 5 Mar 2019, 5:42pm

Re: Who's had their second jab?

Post by Jdsk »

[XAP]Bob wrote: 17 May 2021, 5:52pm
Jdsk wrote: 17 May 2021, 5:44pm
jo' bo wrote: 17 May 2021, 5:26pmWhat we have agreed is that those with compromised immune systems are not save from me or from those who are vaccinated, the only safe course of action for them is to stay in and wear a mask, quite possibly for ever
More nonsense. Many people with compromised immune systems can safely be vaccinated, and it can reduce their chance of being infected. And of course that infection could be more damaging than in other people.

Anyone in this position should talk to their GP well before being vaccinated. It's likely that an opinion will be sought from a specialist, and they're very used to that by now.

And the reduction in transmission that follows vaccination of other people will protect people with immunodeficiency.

(There is an obvious risk in some types of immunodeficiency from live viruses but they aren't relevant to this outbreak in the UK at the moment.)
Current COVID vaccines are not counter indicated for any immune compromised groups that I am aware of.
My kids have to have the flu jab rather than the nasal spray because I can't be around them for two weeks if they have the live vaccine - that's the kind of decision that is made constantly by people with compromised immune systems - we've got specialists behind us, we have a pretty good idea of what we are doing....
Exactly.

Jonathan
jo' bo
Posts: 121
Joined: 8 May 2021, 8:21pm

Re: Who's had their second jab?

Post by jo' bo »

Jdsk wrote: 17 May 2021, 5:44pm
jo' bo wrote: 17 May 2021, 5:26pmWhat we have agreed is that those with compromised immune systems are not save from me or from those who are vaccinated, the only safe course of action for them is to stay in and wear a mask, quite possibly for ever
More nonsense. Many people with compromised immune systems can safely be vaccinated, and it can reduce their chance of being infected. And of course that infection could be more damaging than in other people.

Anyone in this position should talk to their GP well before being vaccinated. It's likely that an opinion will be sought from a specialist, and they're very used to that by now.

And the reduction in transmission that follows vaccination of other people will protect people with immunodeficiency.

(There is an obvious risk in some types of immunodeficiency from live viruses but they aren't relevant to this outbreak in the UK at the moment.)

Jonathan
Talk about a circular arguments, if those with compromised immune systems can be vacinated ( which isnt actually universally true), then my not being vacinated is of no inconvenience to anyone But me
Jdsk
Posts: 24629
Joined: 5 Mar 2019, 5:42pm

Re: Who's had their second jab?

Post by Jdsk »

[XAP]Bob wrote: 17 May 2021, 5:47pm
jo' bo wrote: 17 May 2021, 5:42pm
Bonefishblues wrote: 17 May 2021, 5:36pm It reduces transmission to others by 50%. In epidemiological terms, that's huge.

...and I with yours Jonathan
But what was the transmission rate before you knocked 50% off?

It was minuscule to start off with all that will do is,stop the number of cases increasing, the number infected will stay constant

Which for the last time I was paying attention stood at a million people
Erm no - tha reductoin in transmission rate directly impacts the R value - that is what actually drives the change in numbers. If you half the transmission then you halve R (approximately), and that's a MASSIVE change.
I'd go with MASSIVE.

Jonathan
Jdsk
Posts: 24629
Joined: 5 Mar 2019, 5:42pm

Re: Who's had their second jab?

Post by Jdsk »

jo' bo wrote: 17 May 2021, 5:54pm
Jdsk wrote: 17 May 2021, 5:44pm
jo' bo wrote: 17 May 2021, 5:26pmWhat we have agreed is that those with compromised immune systems are not save from me or from those who are vaccinated, the only safe course of action for them is to stay in and wear a mask, quite possibly for ever
More nonsense. Many people with compromised immune systems can safely be vaccinated, and it can reduce their chance of being infected. And of course that infection could be more damaging than in other people.

Anyone in this position should talk to their GP well before being vaccinated. It's likely that an opinion will be sought from a specialist, and they're very used to that by now.

And the reduction in transmission that follows vaccination of other people will protect people with immunodeficiency.

(There is an obvious risk in some types of immunodeficiency from live viruses but they aren't relevant to this outbreak in the UK at the moment.)
Talk about a circular arguments, if those with compromised immune systems can be vacinated ( which isnt actually universally true), then my not being vacinated is of no inconvenience to anyone But me
Only about half the population of the UK have received a first dose of vaccine. The unvaccinated half is many more people than those with immunodeficiency. The unvaccinated are protected by everyone who has accepted the offer of vaccination.

And you've already agreed (1628) that vaccination reduces transmission.

Jonathan
jo' bo
Posts: 121
Joined: 8 May 2021, 8:21pm

Re: Who's had their second jab?

Post by jo' bo »

Jdsk wrote: 17 May 2021, 5:52pm
jo' bo wrote: 17 May 2021, 5:42pm
Bonefishblues wrote: 17 May 2021, 5:36pm It reduces transmission to others by 50%. In epidemiological terms, that's huge.

...and I with yours Jonathan
But what was the transmission rate before you knocked 50% off?
The transmission rate was high enough to kill 120,000 people in the UK.
jo' bo wrote: 17 May 2021, 5:42pm
Bonefishblues wrote: 17 May 2021, 5:36pm It reduces transmission to others by 50%. In epidemiological terms, that's huge.

...and I with yours Jonathan
But what was the transmission rate before you knocked 50% off?

It was minuscule to start off with all that will do is,stop the number of cases increasing, the number infected will stay constant

Which for the last time I was paying attention stood at a million people
What's the difference between "the number of cases" and "the number infected"?

Jonathan
Hatd to say definetly but somewhere between 40 and 80 % are asymptomatic.

The last data I viewed from the ONS said that on top of cases there were circa I million who were infected but not diagnosed, ( what it actual said now I come to think of it was one in 80, which I rounded up to the nearest million)
Jdsk
Posts: 24629
Joined: 5 Mar 2019, 5:42pm

Re: Who's had their second jab?

Post by Jdsk »

jo' bo wrote: 17 May 2021, 6:02pm
What's the difference between "the number of cases" and "the number infected"?
Hatd to say definetly but somewhere between 40 and 80 % are asymptomatic.

The last data I viewed from the ONS said that on top of cases there were circa I million who were infected but not diagnosed, ( what it actual said now I come to think of it was one in 80, which I rounded up to the nearest million)
So by "cases" you mean "symptomatic cases"?

Jonathan
jo' bo
Posts: 121
Joined: 8 May 2021, 8:21pm

Re: Who's had their second jab?

Post by jo' bo »

Jdsk wrote: 17 May 2021, 5:58pm
jo' bo wrote: 17 May 2021, 5:54pm
Jdsk wrote: 17 May 2021, 5:44pm
More nonsense. Many people with compromised immune systems can safely be vaccinated, and it can reduce their chance of being infected. And of course that infection could be more damaging than in other people.

Anyone in this position should talk to their GP well before being vaccinated. It's likely that an opinion will be sought from a specialist, and they're very used to that by now.

And the reduction in transmission that follows vaccination of other people will protect people with immunodeficiency.

(There is an obvious risk in some types of immunodeficiency from live viruses but they aren't relevant to this outbreak in the UK at the moment.)
Talk about a circular arguments, if those with compromised immune systems can be vacinated ( which isnt actually universally true), then my not being vacinated is of no inconvenience to anyone But me
More nonsense. Only about half the population of the UK have received a first dose of vaccine. The unvaccinated half is many more people than those with immunodeficiency. The unvaccinated are protected by everyone who has accepted the offer of vaccination.

And you've already agreed (1628) that vaccination reduces transmission.

Jonathan
The unvaccinated half are being protected by beibg under 40, a Protection they always had, which is why they are being done last
jo' bo
Posts: 121
Joined: 8 May 2021, 8:21pm

Re: Who's had their second jab?

Post by jo' bo »

Jdsk wrote: 17 May 2021, 6:03pm
jo' bo wrote: 17 May 2021, 6:02pm
What's the difference between "the number of cases" and "the number infected"?
Hatd to say definetly but somewhere between 40 and 80 % are asymptomatic.

The last data I viewed from the ONS said that on top of cases there were circa I million who were infected but not diagnosed, ( what it actual said now I come to think of it was one in 80, which I rounded up to the nearest million)
So by "cases" you mean "symptomatic cases"?

Jonathan
What I mean is the number who have contracted and recovered with out being diagnosed as such is masively greater than those who have been diagnosed, asymptomatic or just felt a,bit %%%% for a few days
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