Pandemic preparation.

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Mike Sales
Posts: 7898
Joined: 7 Mar 2009, 3:31pm

Pandemic preparation.

Post by Mike Sales »

Interesting review of a book.

Failures of State by Jonathan Calvert and George Arbuthnott review – how Britain became 'Plague Island'


I
n this meticulous, damning investigation, two journalists reveal how the government squandered a legacy of pandemic planning and led Britain into a dead end.


Alan Johnson is the reviewer.

When I became health secretary in 2007, the chief medical officer, Liam Donaldson, took me aside to explain why there was bound to be a pandemic soon. Between 1918 and 1920, the H1N1 virus that became known as Spanish flu was responsible for more deaths than the first world war. There had been a flu pandemic about 30 years before that and another, Asian flu (H2N2), would kill up to 4 million 40 years later.

“It’s running a bit late, but one’s sure to come along any minute,” he told me in his reassuringly soft Teesside accent, as if we were standing in Whitehall waiting for a number 11 bus.


Calvert and Arbuthnott suggest that a combination of austerity and “the government’s one-eyed obsession with Brexit” had eroded our defences. There had been another scaled-down rehearsal in 2016, codenamed Cygnus, after which the official verdict was that Britain’s preparations were by now inadequate for the “extreme demands” of a pandemic. It was a danger signal that seems to have been ignored.

The result is chronicled here in meticulous detail: out-of-date stock that should have been replenished, respirators with an expiry date of 2012, no gowns, visors, swabs, body bags or eye protection. Nurses having to improvise PPE with black bin liners.


https://www.theguardian.com/books/2021/mar/14/failures-of-state-by-jonathan-calvert-and-george-arbuthnott-review-how-britain-became-plague-island
It's the same the whole world over
It's the poor what gets the blame
It's the rich what gets the pleasure
Isn't it a blooming shame?
thirdcrank
Posts: 36781
Joined: 9 Jan 2007, 2:44pm

Re: Pandemic preparation.

Post by thirdcrank »

I see it's available from Amazon in hardback for under fifteen quid. It's the sort of thing I might buy to read rather than depend on reviews.

Does anybody know anything about the status of either of the authors?
Mike Sales
Posts: 7898
Joined: 7 Mar 2009, 3:31pm

Re: Pandemic preparation.

Post by Mike Sales »

thirdcrank wrote:I see it's available from Amazon in hardback for under fifteen quid. It's the sort of thing I might buy to read rather than depend on reviews.

Does anybody know anything about the status of either of the authors?


Has it been reviewed in the other Sundays? I can see no mention on the Sunday Telegraph site. Perhaps they will get round to it this week?
It's the same the whole world over
It's the poor what gets the blame
It's the rich what gets the pleasure
Isn't it a blooming shame?
Mike Sales
Posts: 7898
Joined: 7 Mar 2009, 3:31pm

Re: Pandemic preparation.

Post by Mike Sales »

thirdcrank wrote:I see it's available from Amazon in hardback for under fifteen quid. It's the sort of thing I might buy to read rather than depend on reviews.

Does anybody know anything about the status of either of the authors?


The authors are said to be journalists.
If Johnson made up the anecdote I would think Donaldson would have something to say.
Operation Cygnus and the facts of poor preparation are well known.
It's the same the whole world over
It's the poor what gets the blame
It's the rich what gets the pleasure
Isn't it a blooming shame?
thirdcrank
Posts: 36781
Joined: 9 Jan 2007, 2:44pm

Re: Pandemic preparation.

Post by thirdcrank »

.... Operation Cygnus and the facts of poor preparation are well known.


Not much point in buying the book then? There seems to be an assumption that there will be a public inquiry in due course (this year next year ....)

Perhaps I'll hope to survive till its finding are published. By which time I may be qualified to walk round the garden raising funds for the NHS, always assuming I can still walk.

In case anybody assumes I'm somehow backing Boris Johnson et al over this, I'm not.
Mike Sales
Posts: 7898
Joined: 7 Mar 2009, 3:31pm

Re: Pandemic preparation.

Post by Mike Sales »

thirdcrank wrote:
.... Operation Cygnus and the facts of poor preparation are well known.


Not much point in buying the book then? There seems to be an assumption that there will be a public inquiry in due course (this year next year ....)

Perhaps I'll hope to survive till its finding are published. By which time I may be qualified to walk round the garden raising funds for the NHS, always assuming I can still walk.

In case anybody assumes I'm somehow backing Boris Johnson et al over this, I'm not.


Somehow those few mentioned facts have been stretched out into book length. Judging by the review there is more detail. Public inquiries don't always find the full truth either!
It's the same the whole world over
It's the poor what gets the blame
It's the rich what gets the pleasure
Isn't it a blooming shame?
merseymouth
Posts: 2519
Joined: 23 Jan 2011, 11:16am

Re: Pandemic preparation.

Post by merseymouth »

Hi, All of the points raised where out there from the beginning of the crisis, which was effectively a condemnation of our like of a "Civil Defence" type body!
But the reality is that governments of all complexions have long been reluctant to invest in such measures, yet resenting blame being attached to them when the proverbial hits the fan. The Cassandra Syndrome? TTFN MM
Jdsk
Posts: 24962
Joined: 5 Mar 2019, 5:42pm

Re: Pandemic preparation.

Post by Jdsk »

merseymouth wrote:Hi, All of the points raised where out there from the beginning of the crisis, which was effectively a condemnation of our like of a "Civil Defence" type body!
But the reality is that governments of all complexions have long been reluctant to invest in such measures, yet resenting blame being attached to them when the proverbial hits the fan. The Cassandra Syndrome?

Public Health England was only created in 2013. Its predecessors were genuinely world-leading in many ways. But its funding wasn't protected under "Austerity".

And now it's to be closed.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_Health_England
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Institute_for_Health_Protection

Jonathan
Boring_Username
Posts: 204
Joined: 2 Mar 2017, 2:38pm

Re: Pandemic preparation.

Post by Boring_Username »

We have a similar rate of excess deaths to Italy, Spain, Belgium, Poland, Portugal, Bulgaria and the Czech Republic.

https://www.ft.com/content/a2901ce8-5eb7-4633-b89c-cbdf5b386938

Yes our government has made mistakes but the idea that it has managed things uniquely badly simply isn't supported by the facts.
Jdsk
Posts: 24962
Joined: 5 Mar 2019, 5:42pm

Re: Pandemic preparation.

Post by Jdsk »

Boring_Username wrote:We have a similar rate of excess deaths to Italy, Spain, Belgium, Poland, Portugal, Bulgaria and the Czech Republic.

https://www.ft.com/content/a2901ce8-5eb7-4633-b89c-cbdf5b386938

What a strange way to say "Amongst the worst in the world". Same source:

Screenshot 2021-03-14 at 14.33.38.png

https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?[url]areas=gbr&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&startDate=2020-01-01&values=deaths[/url]

Jonathan
Boring_Username
Posts: 204
Joined: 2 Mar 2017, 2:38pm

Re: Pandemic preparation.

Post by Boring_Username »

Jdsk wrote:What a strange way to say "Amongst the worst in the world". Same source:


It isn't the same source. One is excess deaths, widely recognised as a reliable indicator; the other is deaths "attributed to" according to government figures, widely recognised as not a reliable indicator.
Last edited by Boring_Username on 14 Mar 2021, 3:01pm, edited 1 time in total.
Jdsk
Posts: 24962
Joined: 5 Mar 2019, 5:42pm

Re: Pandemic preparation.

Post by Jdsk »

It's the same source... Burn-Murdoch at the FT. It's a different dataset.

I'd have liked the UK to have been amongst the lowest by either measure.

Jonathan
Boring_Username
Posts: 204
Joined: 2 Mar 2017, 2:38pm

Re: Pandemic preparation.

Post by Boring_Username »

Jdsk wrote:It's the same source... Burn-Murdoch at the FT.

Jonathan


He is not the primary source of any of those figures.
Jdsk
Posts: 24962
Joined: 5 Mar 2019, 5:42pm

Re: Pandemic preparation.

Post by Jdsk »

He's the source to which we both linked.

I'm not sure what the argument is about here... but if you put up the data for excess death rates showing the UK and all other countries or similar countries or European countries we'd probably able to resolve it. That would also avoid the obvious problem of cherrypicking comparators post hoc.

Jonathan
Boring_Username
Posts: 204
Joined: 2 Mar 2017, 2:38pm

Re: Pandemic preparation.

Post by Boring_Username »

Jdsk wrote:He's the source to which we both linked.

I'm not sure what the argument is about here... but if you put up the data for excess death rates showing the UK and all other countries or similar countries or European countries we'd probably able to resolve it. That would also avoid the obvious problem of cherrypicking comparators post hoc.

Jonathan


What is it about my original post you're struggling to understand? I said that on the basis of excess deaths, the UK has not performed uniquely badly in Europe. Then I gave a link to excess death figures in Europe.

We have fared worse than a number of countries (Germany, France, etc) and about the same as a number of other countries (Italy, Spain, etc). Could we have done better? Yes. Have we done uniquely badly, as implied by the political arguments in the book that started this thread? No.

Do I think this analysis is contradicted by "attributed to" figures? No, because as almost any statistician will tell you they are deeply unreliable.

P.S. If you want less tetchy responses, it's probably a good idea not to reply to a post by implying the poster is a liar ("What a strange way to say...")
Last edited by Boring_Username on 14 Mar 2021, 3:18pm, edited 1 time in total.
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