Electric everything.

[Jdsk]

Yes, takes quite a few thousand miles to recover the initial capital cost… but not nearly as many as some might claim.

For me - it costs the same to run and finance a new BEV than it has over the last 15 years running petrol cars at or about 100k miles.

Thanks for this. Without wishing to pry into your personal affairs, could you you give some figures, please?

Some of us are looking ahead with this.

My own situation is I have a 5 year old VW Gold TDi Blue motion. I do about 7k miles pa of mixed distances. I currently get about 55-60mpg locally and about 72mpg on longer (50miles+) trips. I am hoping to move next week. This will I imagine reduce my local trips to a couple of thousand miles pa then a couple of holidays/visits to my son which will involve a 500mile round trip.

I am not interested in anyone telling me how to reduce mileage or do without a car. I know my own circumstances and I have already halved my mileage and am seeking a further 50% reduction.

Monthly costs (rounded out a bit):
Fuel used to be ~120, is now ~30
Insurance, servicing, warranty, VED, breakdown cover used to be ~200
Depreciation (taken over 15 years of multiple cars) cost about ~90
Motability lease is everything but fuel - and that's where this comparison is slightly unfair ~ 270

So the difference between the two setups is <5/month

New car vs old car - but with the benefit of motability being a very large fleet operator.
I also got a £50 rebate this year, they negotiated a discount on the insurance since annual milage during lockdown was lower for basically everyone.

Thanks for the numbers.

Jonathan

[biketips666]

EDIT - bugger. I spent ages getting everything in columns, and when I posted that just gets lost. This will probably make even less sense now, but you'll just have to try to work out what it means /END EDIT.

So here are my sums. As another poster perspicuously noted, I am comparing a 3.0 petrol car (because that's what I had) to a Nissan Leaf.
This may look like a bit of a mess. Because it was never meant for public consumption and the formatting goes a bit awry pasting a spreadsheet into here.

Going from a big petrol car to a Leaf, there's no doubt at all about the cost saving. If one was going from a more modest car to a Leaf, it probably won't be anywhere near as clear cut. So for instance I've put down £0 for parking in a Leaf. Because all my parking is for work, and the towns I work in have free parking schemes for electric vehicles, at least for now. Also as another poster has suggested out, zero VED might not last for ever. I've also assumed that I'll always charge at home. Oh, and I've just realised I didn't factor in the cost of installing a home charging point.

As this is a spreadsheet it was really easy to change some variables to see what a difference they made. Higher mileage makes the Leaf a better deal, but that also implies some motorway charging. A lot depends on usage patterns. And of course "capital costs" depends a lot on how you buy it. If it's from cash you need to factor in the opportunity cost. I think I did an exercise where I actually worked in the cost of a bank loan for the Leaf, but as I bought the petrol car from cash, it didn't really compare, so I just left them both as cash purchases, over 40,000 miles.

Anyway, it would be good to see some "worked examples" from other posters, as there are clearly people who have been through the same process as I have.

Mileage P.A. 9,500
Dino fuel price per litre £1.27
Charging cost per mile £0.04 £380.00 annual charging cost
ICE mpg 23
Battery lease pcm £0.00 annual battery cost
Service per mile (ICE) 0.2
ICE Leaf (battery owned)
£2,337.46 £380.00 Annual "fuel" cost assuming it never needs charging on the motorway
£330.00 £0.00 Tax
£300.00 £0.00 Parking?
£1,900.00 £200.00 Service (service costs of ICE historical real world)
£95.00 £95.00 Recovery

£4,962.46 £675.00

£4,287.46 Saving P.A.
£357.29 Saving PCM


£916.75 £2,968.75 capital costs per mile (as below)
Total including capital costs
£5,879.21 £3,643.75 annual including capital cost
£2,235.46 saving PA
£186.2885507 saving PCM

capital costs assumed over 40,000.00 miles
petrol £3,860.00 £0.10 per mile (it cost me £3860, and I ran it for 40,000 miles)
leaf £12,500.00 £0.31 per mile

[Oldjohnw]

I:m with pragmatic Mick here but watching carefully.

I pay £40 pm fuel (with Covid I have done less miles), £26pm servicing, I have bought 4 tyres at about £65 each and this year £180 on brakes plus £550 on timing belt. I have not paid RFL for years. I would estimate depreciation has been £1000pa.

[Jdsk]

EDIT - bugger. I spent ages getting everything in columns, and when I posted that just gets lost. This will probably make even less sense now, but you'll just have to try to work out what it means /END EDIT.

How about a screenshot of the spreadsheet as an image?

Jonathan

[biketips666]

EDIT - bugger. I spent ages getting everything in columns, and when I posted that just gets lost. This will probably make even less sense now, but you'll just have to try to work out what it means /END EDIT.

How about a screenshot of the spreadsheet as an image?

Jonathan

Some of the cells are calculated from others, obviously.

[biketips666]

This whole discussion reminds me of the talk around film vs digital cameras a couple of decades ago. There was talk about how expensive digital cameras were compared to film. People did calculations around cost per photo. People (Ken Rockwell, probably) did calculations about how digital couldn't match the resolution of film. "It'll never take off" said a professional photographer to me, who I'd hired for a session. Even at the time I thought - "is that because you've spent a small fortune on that Mamiya RB67 and lenses to go with it, and it's what you're used to". Oh yes, and there was lots of talk about film cameras having "soul" and suchlike.

How many people shoot film now, eh? (well, I do, but not very often).

So it will be with electric cars:

1. Initial development, product not that good, hardly any purchases.
2. More out there, enthusiasts and idealists buy them, but still a bit odd and awkward to own.
3. Starts to approach mainstream acceptance, owners no longer viewed as nutters.
4. Widespread ownership, price falls, support structures in place.
5. Becomes the dominant form, old system falls away.
6. Old system only now used by "weirdos", difficult to support. Friends back away when you start enthusing about how good the old stuff was.

We're at 3 now. 4 is just around the corner.

When 6 happens the comparison to film won't hold true. I can still send my film away for processing. I don't suppose "Petrol By Post" will ever be a thing.

Technological development can happen very fast, even with things that seem impossible.

"Not within a thousand years will man ever fly" somebody said in 1901
In 1903 man did fly.

The man who made the incorrect prediction was Wilbur Wright. The man who flew was his brother, Orville.

Never underestimate how fast things can change. Especially if they are things you've never imagined.

[Jdsk]

Much clearer.

Thankyou.

Jonathan

[sjs]

Monthly costs (rounded out a bit):
Fuel used to be ~120, is now ~30
Insurance, servicing, warranty, VED, breakdown cover used to be ~200
Depreciation (taken over 15 years of multiple cars) cost about ~90
Motability lease is everything but fuel - and that's where this comparison is slightly unfair ~ 270

So the difference between the two setups is <5/month

I make it a saving of 110 per month; 90+200+90-270. What have I missed?

[Stevek76]

No single solution is sufficient, hence the need to actively pursue many of them.

And it's not a useful criticism of BEVs to say that they can't solve the other problems.

I think it is useful given the extent to which the thought that they are the solution (particularly when combined with automation) to most transport woes pervades leading figures in that sector and across politics. We can see that in the UK's recent decarbonisation plan and in things like Musk's doolally ideas about 'loop'.

What about the rest of my quote?

Discounting wind, which route is quicker?
One where it's flat for 50miles, or one where it's 50miles of up and down hills?

Say a mile of 25% up and a mile of 25% down.
What about two miles on the flat?

Electric power to propel a vehicle, needs to consider the hills ...........

City flat, is easy.
City flat is easy ............. cycling as well as EV efficiency.

Go into the rural hills of the country, and mileage and average speed drop considerably ....... as does the power consumption.

Well I wasn't quite sure where you were going with that, just picked up on the cycling part. Flat is generally easier just because of efficiency reasons, you'll never quite gain back on the downs what you lost on the up. However many cities aren't very flat and urban areas also have the major problem of stop start which costs energy. Weight/mass becomes a big factor here and is why car use for short trips really does need to be managed down. Too many moving 1t-2.5t of metal just to move their 80kg a few miles.

[biketips666]

Monthly costs (rounded out a bit):
Fuel used to be ~120, is now ~30
Insurance, servicing, warranty, VED, breakdown cover used to be ~200
Depreciation (taken over 15 years of multiple cars) cost about ~90
Motability lease is everything but fuel - and that's where this comparison is slightly unfair ~ 270

So the difference between the two setups is <5/month

I make it a saving of 110 per month; 90+200+90-270. What have I missed?

I was also slightly non-plussed by that.

The number of ~s there, and in other posters' calculations, is worth noting. I'm not saying that back of an envelope calculations don't get one pretty near the approximate truth, or that my spreadsheet (which I'm sure appears "over the top" to some people) approach is necessary.

But what I did gain was the ability to see what difference changes in one variable made, by plugging in different figures. And it was often quite revealing. Once I got away from the 23mpg that my old car got, to 36mpg in the current one, any further increases in fuel efficiency became less and less important. So the constant chasing of better and better efficiency is actually not always the priority.

And in trying to list complete costs, one often remembers things that are initially forgotten.

It's interesting that [XAP]Bob lumps two types of expenses together - fixed and variable. Again this might be for leasing reasons. Personally it might be better if some of those were mileage based. I certainly think insurance should be linked, to some extent, to mileage. Though some companies do that already a little - a friend who drives a Lotus is mileage limited, for insurance purposes.

By the way, on another worksheet, for comparing fuel costs, I've also got a section which compares CO2 outputs. Ditching my old car has reduced my personal carbon footprint by 1.7 tonnes a year, a reduction of about 15%. And as I haven't bought a car to replace it, there are no embedded energy costs to offset that.

[Ben@Forest]

Never underestimate how fast things can change. Especially if they are things you've never imagined.

That of course applies to EVs too. At the moment it appears to be the only game in town, but how do we know that in 10, 15 or 20 years time hydrogen fuelled cars may not be more practical? That 40,000 recharging locations (UK currently has 15,500 locations) are not needed or that however we produce lithium or its substitutes are not sustainable? ICEs lasted as the most practical form of motive transport for (roughly) 120 years, EVs won't last half as long.

https://www.toyota.co.uk/new-cars/new-m ... x4QAvD_BwE

[Mick F]

Done some arithmetic and some research.
Just had an MOT on Jennifer, our White Yaris Hybrid.
All our cars have had names. Jennifer is a Cornish name meaning "the fair one".

Since the last MOT, we have done 5,359miles.
I keep spread sheets, and this year - Jan/Feb/Mar/Apr/May/Jun/Jul we have spent £32.05 per month.
At say £1.25 per litre makes it £5.60 per gallon?
Means 5,359miles with £32.05 x 12 = £384.60pa divided by £5.60 = 68.7galls
5,359miles divided by 68.7 = 78mpg

Obviously "ish" figures and hopefully I have it correct but at this moment, the petrol tank is nigh-on empty.
78mpg sounds too high. More like 60mpg I would think.

Someone else can tell me the "saving" on an EV considering our mileage and that we pay 19.24p per unit for our lecky.
How many units of lecky would it cost us to run an EV for 5,359miles considering the HILLS?

[biketips666]

Never underestimate how fast things can change. Especially if they are things you've never imagined.

That of course applies to EVs too. At the moment it appears to be the only game in town, but how do we know that in 10, 15 or 20 years time hydrogen fuelled cars may not be more practical? That 40,000 recharging locations (UK currently has 15,500 locations) are not needed or that however we produce lithium or its substitutes are not sustainable? ICEs lasted as the most practical form of motive transport for (roughly) 120 years, EVs won't last half as long.

https://www.toyota.co.uk/new-cars/new-m ... x4QAvD_BwE

Yes indeed. My comparison to powered flight is slightly wrong, as that was a completely new thing. Whereas EVs are just a different way of doing an existing thing. And not a very different thing - after all, it's just a different power plant. It's probably often faster to do a new thing, than change a way of doing an existing thing.

Though it's worth point out that hydrogen fuelled cars are actually "EVs" (as you put it).

As it happens, I've just got off the phone from Vaillant. We need a new boiler and I was wondering if theirs are hydrogen ready. "Not yet, but they will be next year", she said. I'm taking that with a pinch of salt, I think she may have meant "should". Nevertheless, widespread domestic supply of green hydrogen looks a long way off, so it's probably irrelevant. But if the domestic supply eventually becomes pure hydrogen, maybe that's an easy way to recharge H fuel cells.

But as battery electric vehicles are the only game in town, it makes sense to go with those for now. As you say, in a few years something else may replace them. I don't see that as a problem. I haven't saddled my horse up for years.

[biketips666]

Done some arithmetic and some research.
Just had an MOT on Jennifer, our White Yaris Hybrid.
All our cars have had names. Jennifer is a Cornish name meaning "the fair one".

Since the last MOT, we have done 5,359miles.
I keep spread sheets, and this year - Jan/Feb/Mar/Apr/May/Jun/Jul we have spent £32.05 per month.
At say £1.25 per litre makes it £5.60 per gallon?
Means 5,359miles with £32.05 x 12 = £384.60pa divided by £5.60 = 68.7galls
5,359miles divided by 68.7 = 78mpg

Obviously "ish" figures and hopefully I have it correct but at this moment, the petrol tank is nigh-on empty.
78mpg sounds too high. More like 60mpg I would think.

Someone else can tell me the "saving" on an EV considering our mileage and that we pay 19.24p per unit for our lecky.
How many units of lecky would it cost us to run an EV for 5,359miles considering the HILLS?

At £1.25 per gallon, 60mpg, and 4p per mile charging cost for an electric your annual saving is £283.13.

Not sure why you say these are "Obviously "ish" figures". If you keep spreadsheets of motoring costs then you can set it up to do all these sums.

But it looks like you're right. An EV would be a waste of money for you now. You may as well wait till there's nowhere to buy petrol, or Jennifer comes to the end of her useful life.

[Mick F]

Ish figures because I would have to go back years to refine the petrol costs.
As I said, the tank is nigh-on empty and I didn't look at all the figures for 2020.

Just Googled.
EV does 3miles per unit, meaning that our cost at present of lecky, we would need 6.4p per mile to power it.
Multiply 6.4p by our present mileage of 5,359miles = £343 per year.
We spend (say) £32.05 per month x 12 = £384.60

Means a saving of £40 a year.

Why bother?
Only way to improve the situation, is to have cheap electricity on tap at home.