HS2 and "Leveling-Up"

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Psamathe
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HS2 and "Leveling-Up"

Post by Psamathe »

An interesting article
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jul/30/hs2-johnson-vanity-cost-taxpayer wrote:Britain’s new high-speed railway will not – repeat: not – get to the north of England. It will go back and forth from London to the Midlands and its chief beneficiaries will be London commuters. All else is political spin.

This became certain last week as the government’s internal major projects authority declared phase two of the HS2 project, to Manchester and Leeds, effectively dead. While the already-started London-to-Birmingham stretch is still marked at “amber/red” for “successful delivery in doubt”, anything north of Crewe has been designated “unachievable”.
...
The only way of conveying the scale of Johnson’s vanity in this vanity project is to convey its opportunity cost, a projected £106bn (and rising) over 20 years. That is the price of hundreds of new NHS hospitals or thousands of new secondary schools. It is seven times the cost of the education Covid recovery project proposed last spring but rejected by Johnson as too costly. It is the same additional annual cost to 2040 as the projected new social care scheme – still considered too expensive. HS2 is in that spending league. These are real choices.

This one train line will consume the equivalent of Britain’s entire projected railway investment budget during its two decades of construction. Even the initial phase to Birmingham, at roughly £70bn, is twice the £40bn cost of the “northern powerhouse” rail system, which every infrastructure pundit agrees should be built first. Yet that system is now in serious danger of being delayed or never completed. HS2 is a glaring “levelling-down” of the north.
...
The project has long been out of control. It is a spending black hole: figures in 2018 showed its latest boss Mark Thurston having to be paid over £660,000 a year, with 15 of his colleagues on over £250,000. A quarter of all HS2 staff, over 300 people, received above £100,000. The Commons public accounts committee declared it to be “badly off course” and lacking even the most “basic financial controls.” This is despite the outlay of £600m annually on consultants, including £35m on the “big four” accountancy firms.
But if plans for it to go north are stopped it will highlight how "levelling-up" is no more than a sound-bite Johnson invented. So I'd expect Johnson and his loyal MPs to keep it going at least until after the next election as to do anything else would open the Conservatives up to the reality of their "levelling-up" being exposed as no more than marketing spin.

Ian
Stevek76
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Re: HS2 and "Leveling-Up"

Post by Stevek76 »

Jenkins does not have a very rational or informed view on this topic so most of what he says needs taken with a fairly liberal mountain of salt. Much of it appears to be the usual made up on the spot rubbish pushed out by the IEA and tufton st associates. Also that the internal projects authority flags up issues and the parliamentary accounts committee sticks the boot on is largely par for the course. Some of that in the case of the latter is just politiking, the rest is a reflection of the UK's dubious record in such matter but much of that also feeds back to politics, it's hard to deliver a multi year project when the goal posts constantly move due to short term political interests, FPTP exacerbates that.

That all said, if it is not built in full it will major blow to rail capacity, cost more in the long run and certainly expose the government's lack of levelling up. Unfortunately there have been signs of the treasury penny pinchers already trying to undermine it for the sake of a few million. Dropping the Euston terminal to 10 platforms earlier in the year just to flog a bit more to development is not a good sign for the eastern leg.

Even if just the eastern leg is not built it will hugely hamper the potential as it will no longer be able to relieve the Midlands and Eastern mainlines. Not to mention the cost of Northern powerhouse rail will shoot up as it will have to build the bits of hs2 it is going to use.
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mjr
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Re: HS2 and "Leveling-Up"

Post by mjr »

Stevek76 wrote: 30 Jul 2021, 12:44pm Also that the internal projects authority flags up issues and the parliamentary accounts committee sticks the boot on is largely par for the course.
Is this internal projects authority the Infrastructure Projects Authority? That would make more sense of Jenkins's article.
That all said, if it is not built in full it will major blow to rail capacity, cost more in the long run and certainly expose the government's lack of levelling up.
I agree but it's already not going to be built in full. The cycleway was dropped despite offering a benefit-cost ratio of £5.50 for every £1 spent. And then there's the removal of platforms from the Euston rebuild and that after years of on/off/on/off talk of a travelator tunnel, there currently isn't even a sheltered walkway between the nearby HS2 and HS1 terminals planned.
Not to mention the cost of Northern powerhouse rail will shoot up as it will have to build the bits of hs2 it is going to use.
Could that be deliberate, to allow that increased cost to be claimed to be part of the "levelling up" spending?
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merseymouth
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Re: HS2 and "Leveling-Up"

Post by merseymouth »

Hi all, If it is true as we suspect, that HS2 will not reach the North West (odds on) why are they working to provide "Platform 0" at Preston & Carlisle for HS2 connectivity? ( Rail magazine, 14 -27 July).
Yet again a waste of both time and money!
But of course the East - West Electrification will suffer yet again! The route between Liverpool to Hull/Newcastle is a vital service, visiting York as it does. So whilst money was found for Crossrail in both North/South and East/West, well over budget and late, but we get the cuts?
If it isn't London Centric it will suffer :twisted: :twisted: :twisted: :twisted: :twisted: . MM
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al_yrpal
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Re: HS2 and "Leveling-Up"

Post by al_yrpal »

merseymouth wrote: 30 Jul 2021, 4:25pm Hi all, If it is true as we suspect, that HS2 will not reach the North West (odds on) why are they working to provide "Platform 0" at Preston & Carlisle for HS2 connectivity? ( Rail magazine, 14 -27 July).
Yet again a waste of both time and money!
But of course the East - West Electrification will suffer yet again! The route between Liverpool to Hull/Newcastle is a vital service, visiting York as it does. So whilst money was found for Crossrail in both North/South and East/West, well over budget and late, but we get the cuts?
If it isn't London Centric it will suffer :twisted: :twisted: :twisted: :twisted: :twisted: . MM
Come come, the bewigged Barristers , High Court Judges and other members of the establishment must have a railway where they can easily get a guaranteed 1st Class seat at Maidenhead and travel uninterrupted to Temple without having that tiresome change at Paddington!

Al :wink:
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Oldjohnw
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Re: HS2 and "Leveling-Up"

Post by Oldjohnw »

Except this is a decision of the politicians, not the legal profession!

But starting projects then changing them despite the earlier promises and aborted costs is not unusual with our friends in government these days.
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merseymouth
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Re: HS2 and "Leveling-Up"

Post by merseymouth »

Hey John, Why not be a little daring and change the record? Don't just play the Tory bashing card, I reckon that every government since Gladstone has kicked the railways, though I'll bet they enjoyed the benefits that the service brought?
Though Huskisson thought they were a "Dead Loss"! :roll: :roll: :roll: TTFN MM
Oldjohnw
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Re: HS2 and "Leveling-Up"

Post by Oldjohnw »

merseymouth wrote: 30 Jul 2021, 5:20pm Hey John, Why not be a little daring and change the record? Don't just play the Tory bashing card, I reckon that every government since Gladstone has kicked the railways, though I'll bet they enjoyed the benefits that the service brought?
Though Huskisson thought they were a "Dead Loss"! :roll: :roll: :roll: TTFN MM
Please remind me who else is responsible for making HS2 decisions? You know, that decision you just complained about.

Let me remind you of what you posted earlier this very day:

Yet again a waste of both time and money!
But of course the East - West Electrification will suffer yet again! The route between Liverpool to Hull/Newcastle is a vital service, visiting York as it does. So whilst money was found for Crossrail in both North/South and East/West, well over budget and late, but we get the cuts?
If it isn't London Centric it will suffer
Now whose decisions were these? You local Liverpool councillor? Mr Macron? The Man in Seat 61?
John
Stevek76
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Re: HS2 and "Leveling-Up"

Post by Stevek76 »

mjr wrote: 30 Jul 2021, 2:04pm Is this internal projects authority the Infrastructure Projects Authority? That would make more sense of Jenkins's article.
Yes, I lazily copied his wording but it is actually that body

That all said, if it is not built in full it will major blow to rail capacity, cost more in the long run and certainly expose the government's lack of levelling up.
I agree but it's already not going to be built in full. The cycleway was dropped despite offering a benefit-cost ratio of £5.50 for every £1 spent. And then there's the removal of platforms from the Euston rebuild and that after years of on/off/on/off talk of a travelator tunnel, there currently isn't even a sheltered walkway between the nearby HS2 and HS1 terminals planned.
I was meaning more the underlying point of the whole thing. Elements like the cycle route never made it past a feasibility study as Cameron/May run dft probably didn't see the value, particularly with the likely further scrapping with Tory councils and MPs along the route it would require.

The marginal loss/gain of the eastern leg of 2b though is huge, not building that undermines the entire thing, might as well just go build some more motorways and expand a few airports instead (which is of course entirely what the tufton st lobby groups want)
Could that be deliberate, to allow that increased cost to be claimed to be part of the "levelling up" spending?
Possibly, it's probably best case scenario that the eastern leg just gets moved wholesale into npr as a bit of levelling up window dressing.
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Carlton green
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Re: HS2 and "Leveling-Up"

Post by Carlton green »

An interesting article in the Guardian, thank you.

As far as I’m concerned HS2 is a White Elephant and an exceedingly expensive one too. To my mind there is no question at all that the money could be better spent on both other Rail projects and more generally on infrastructure. What the purpose of HS2 really is is anyone’s guess and certainly no leg beyond Birmingham should be built: that would compound the existing lunacy and obviously the North and Midlands have more worthy projects for the funds that would be involved.
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al_yrpal
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Re: HS2 and "Leveling-Up"

Post by al_yrpal »

Oldjohnw wrote: 30 Jul 2021, 4:50pm Except this is a decision of the politicians, not the legal profession!

But starting projects then changing them despite the earlier promises and aborted costs is not unusual with our friends in government these days.
You obviously dont know how Britain works. I was alluding to HS2s sister project...Crossrail. its the establishment that makes the decisions here. Except for Brexit that is. :lol:

Al
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Oldjohnw
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Re: HS2 and "Leveling-Up"

Post by Oldjohnw »

al_yrpal wrote: 31 Jul 2021, 6:54am
Oldjohnw wrote: 30 Jul 2021, 4:50pm Except this is a decision of the politicians, not the legal profession!

But starting projects then changing them despite the earlier promises and aborted costs is not unusual with our friends in government these days.
You obviously dont know how Britain works. I was alluding to HS2s sister project...Crossrail. its the establishment that makes the decisions here. Except for Brexit that is. :lol:

Al
Far be it from me to disagree but Crossrail would originally have been set up by Act of Parliament, probably under Labour (I believe there were two attempts to get it going). I was referring in the first place to HS2 and I know little about Crossrail, what it does, what it cost and what it is for. I was not aware that a few lawyers could get together and build a railway to facilitate their journey, first class or otherwise!

HS2, which I was talking of, was a current government decision. MM wanted me to blame someone else but I simply can’t. But I will bow to your understanding of how Britain works.
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merseymouth
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Re: HS2 and "Leveling-Up"

Post by merseymouth »

Hi Oldjohnw, My point is that whatever the topic you automatically go straight to "Bash The Government" mode!
But with regards to many of the costly fiascos it is the "Professional" (?) Civil Servants that cause the mess, so using the blanket hit against the elected sector is very wrong!
The railway industry is constantly beset with admin cock-ups, always very costly, caused by those unelected servants of the British population.
The London bias is a constant source of pain to those of us who prefer to live outside of that toxic bubble. MM
Oldjohnw
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Re: HS2 and "Leveling-Up"

Post by Oldjohnw »

merseymouth wrote: 31 Jul 2021, 10:57am Hi Oldjohnw, My point is that whatever the topic you automatically go straight to "Bash The Government" mode!
But with regards to many of the costly fiascos it is the "Professional" (?) Civil Servants that cause the mess, so using the blanket hit against the elected sector is very wrong!
The railway industry is constantly beset with admin cock-ups, always very costly, caused by those unelected servants of the British population.
The London bias is a constant source of pain to those of us who prefer to live outside of that toxic bubble. MM
I know all about London bias. I live as far north in England as it is possible. Most in Westminster - and Whitehall - think we are in Scotland.

Policy decisions, such as HS2, are made at Cabinet level.
John
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Re: HS2 and "Leveling-Up"

Post by Jdsk »

Oldjohnw wrote: 31 Jul 2021, 11:17amPolicy decisions, such as HS2, are made at Cabinet level.
And Ministers are responsible for them wherever they were made.

Jonathan
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