Covid Booster. Yes/No? *** The Covid Thread ***

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PDQ Mobile
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Re: Covid Booster. Yes/No?

Post by PDQ Mobile »

Slowster^^
I understand that to some extent high infection levels are caused by the younger and less vaccinated age groups.
But the figures are very high.
And the age grouping chart does state it is "estimated"??
And the small print says "based on a small sample".

The chart looks rather strange to be honest, with those younger age groups separated by 1 year and the older groups by 10 years omitting vast numbers of the over 16s.
It would appear from that as simply a total devastating epidemic almost exclusively among the young?

I am aware that the virus is more prevalent amongst the young, many of whom have not been seriously ill, but it is in the wider community too.

In Europe in many places that have had a far lower vaccine take up infection levels are far far lower.
So I remain curious about Wales's very high rates, and the reasons for it, given the factors already mentioned.
slowster
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Re: Covid Booster. Yes/No?

Post by slowster »

PDQ Mobile wrote: 27 Oct 2021, 8:24am And the age grouping chart does state it is "estimated"??
And the small print says "based on a small sample".

The chart looks rather strange to be honest, with those younger age groups separated by 1 year and the older groups by 10 years omitting vast numbers of the over 16s.
It would appear from that as simply a total devastating epidemic almost exclusively among the young?
From what I have read, the ONS statistics are considered to be the best by experts (such as the member of the SAGE modelling group I have mentioned previously). I would have high confidence in their methodology and sampling size: they are the experts in that field. The reason for the omission of many older ages is, I think, self-apparent: the results for the missing ages will all be very similar and can be interpolated from the chart. The variation between young children of even just a year's difference in age is sufficiently significant to show the greater granularity and how infection rises from 5 years, peaks at 12, and drops thereafter. The chart helps to distinguish the key information in the data.

There has been, and continues to be, lots of 'noise' in coronavirus reporting and commentary. I think most of it is not worth paying attention to and best ignored. I came to the conclusion long ago that current infection rate data is not something that was worth me trying to make sense of (but it will doubtless be hugely valuable data when collated for the whole duration of the pandemic and studied retrospectively by epidemiologists in future years). The metric I am mainly interested in is hospitalisations, because I think that is the most informative number.
PDQ Mobile wrote: 27 Oct 2021, 8:24am In Europe in many places that have had a far lower vaccine take up infection levels are far far lower.
So I remain curious about Wales's very high rates, and the reasons for it, given the factors already mentioned.
I sympathise with your curiosity. I think possibly the best answer I am able to give with my own very limited understanding of the science, is that your approach in trying to understand what is happening right now, in the middle of the storm as it were, is akin to saying "That's very interesting Mr Schrödinger, but is the cat alive? All I want is a simple Yes or No."
Last edited by slowster on 27 Oct 2021, 1:30pm, edited 1 time in total.
Psamathe
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Re: Covid Booster. Yes/No?

Post by Psamathe »

So word from our legislature is that the SARS-CoV-2 is so clever it knows not to infect friends of somebody suffering. Wow.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tory-mps-masks-covid-parliament-b1946153.html wrote:Tories won’t wear masks in Commons because they ‘know each other’, Rees-Mogg says
And another demonstration of arogance (or maybe just hypocracy) from Westminster (it demonstrates to me the issues behind reports about how much worse the UK is still doing compared to other European countries - R4 this morning)
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tory-mps-masks-covid-parliament-b1946153.html wrote:Masks made mandatory again in parliament for staff – but not for ‘above the rules’ MPs
...
Masks have been made mandatory again for staff in parliament except MPs – sparking accusations that politicians are behaving as if they are “above the rules”.

The Commons authorities have updated Covid guidance to say all staff, visitors and media must cover their faces to combat the upsurge in cases.

But it remains up to each MP whether they choose to wear a mask or not. Conservative MPs have come in for heaviest criticism, having largely ditched face coverings in recent months....
Ian
Psamathe
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Re: Covid Booster. Yes/No?

Post by Psamathe »

Interesting episode of BBC Inside Science "The Possible Impact of false-negative PCR tests" https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m0010q9x (21/Oct/2021). Just the 1st 15 mins.

The discussion is far broader than the title as it also asks why the UK is currently doing so dramatically worse than other countries e.g. our EU neighbours and what the underlying causes are. It also covers some estimates of the impacts of the false-negative PCR scandal in terms of spread and deaths caused.

Ian
PDQ Mobile
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Re: Covid Booster. Yes/No?

Post by PDQ Mobile »

Jdsk wrote: 27 Oct 2021, 8:16am
slowster wrote: 26 Oct 2021, 10:08pm
PDQ Mobile wrote: 26 Oct 2021, 9:41pm And yet infections are at record high levels.
Image

And with regard to current high infection rates and possible future trends, see https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59039739.
Thanks for those highly relevant data. Current total case numbers are a long way short of telling the whole story.

Jonathan
Well I don't think the chart is particularly informative and is therefore somewhat questionable.
Rather than your "highly relavant".

As a source of statistics it is massively lacking in a decent overview with vast numbers of people and age groups omitted.

You were very quick (extraordinarily so IMV) to query my earlier Welsh data, yet that proved quite correct, yet you accept an incomplete data set as "highly relavant".

Tell us then, what is the "whole story" if we are "short" of being told by somebody?


Wales's first minister is now saying more and stricter measures may have to be introduced.
While it is clear that a good deal of transmission is within the younger age groups, the first Minister also says transmission is "amongst family members and close contacts at home".
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-politics-59077857


Today's levels in Wales are the worst since the beginning of the outbreak.
They threaten the introduction of stricter measures in a country where vaccine uptake is very high (80%) and a great many people have aquired resistance through infection.
It is also a country where the mandatory wearing of masks in public places was never lifted.

So while answers about the life and death of Schrödinger's cat may be never known, some do not fear to look right into the depths of Pandora's Box.
How about the virus origins, as a starter?
thirdcrank
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Re: Covid Booster. Yes/No?

Post by thirdcrank »

There's apparently been frustration from people hoping for a booster who have been told they must wait for six months. I understand the frustration but had I assumed that the six months was based on sound medical reasoning. I now see that it's been announced that boosters can be given after five months for "operational reasons" such as getting a batch of nursing home residents jabbed in one go or the IMO no-brainer of giving it in conjunction with a seasonal flu jab.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/1 ... six-month/
pwa
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Re: Covid Booster. Yes/No?

Post by pwa »

The situation in Wales is that the young are the main cause of high rates of infection, largely through mixing in schools, but they pass on infection to older age groups within their families, and it is among those older age groups that the hospital cases and fatalities occur. This is what people are saying here, and it fits with my own knowledge of Covid cases near here. Families who have had Covid brought home from school by the kids. I have no idea why Wales has had higher infection rates than most of England recently. Prior to England removing compulsory mask wearing in shops and on public transport, Wales had lower rates of infection. We have had a more cautious approach to mask wearing but have not seen any benefit from that. But mask wearing in schools in Wales has gone, so perhaps that is part of the explanation.
slowster
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Re: Covid Booster. Yes/No?

Post by slowster »

pwa wrote: 30 Oct 2021, 10:27am I have no idea why Wales has had higher infection rates than most of England recently. Prior to England removing compulsory mask wearing in shops and on public transport, Wales had lower rates of infection. We have had a more cautious approach to mask wearing but have not seen any benefit from that. But mask wearing in schools in Wales has gone, so perhaps that is part of the explanation.
I suspect that those countries which have had lower infection rates for longish periods as a result of high levels of compliance with mask wearing and minimising social contacts compared to their neighbours and other other countries, will inevitably experience a jump in infection rates when the controls are reduced/withdrawn, simply because as a result of that past high compliance there will be a larger percentage of the population that is susceptible to infection. For other countries which have had higher infection rates for the same period, those past infections (in combination with vaccination) will substantially reduce the likelihood of (re-)infection.

I think that points to the difficulty facing many countries which have been more successful in suppressing infection using non-pharmaceutical measures. The vaccines do not provide 100% protection, so even when a very high percentage of a population have been vaccinated, there will still be an uptick in infections once the restrictions are reduced. That is the crux point now for many countries with high levels of vaccination: deciding when to reduce the restrictions and how, with the aim of minimising deaths and hospitalisations during that uptick. Too sharp an uptick might overwhelm health services.

This problem will probably be far worse in Australia and especially New Zealand. Even if they wait until they have 90% or more levels of vaccination before they open up, I expect there will be relatively high numbers of hospitalisations and deaths for some months. The impact on other countries of the more infectious variants, such as the Alpha (Kent) and Delta variants has been spread out over time, i.e. people who had caught the original variant or the Alpha variant were less likely to be infected later by the Delta variant. For Australia and New Zealand the Delta variant will probably quickly become the dominant variant as soon as they open up, and its higher transmissibility will result in a much faster and larger rise in infections, hospitalisations and deaths than would have been the case with the previous variants.
gbnz
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Re: Covid Booster. Yes/No?

Post by gbnz »

slowster wrote: 30 Oct 2021, 11:48am [ That is the crux point now for many countries with high levels of vaccination: deciding when to reduce the restrictions and how, with the aim of minimising deaths and hospitalisations durings.
And the Crux point for individuals. I've never been in a panic about Covid, but have taken precautions. And? Notice the local supermarkets have removed their local measures such as plastic screens, as of this week. No one is wearing masks, forget social distancing, except in the higher tier supermarkets and parts of town.
Jdsk
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Re: Covid Booster. Yes/No?

Post by Jdsk »

Thanks.

It's important to distinguish between third doses in people who are immunocomprised and third doses in others. If you'd like I'll point to some sources for the former, which might be relevant in the light of your diagnosis.

On the latter, that's for most of us, there's a vast amount out there:

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/jcvi ... accination
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/mhra ... r-vaccines

And comments by other experts at the Science Media Centre:
https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expe ... om-israel/
https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expe ... ster-dose/

And another convenient summary from the USA:
https://www.cas.org/resources/blog/covi ... ne-booster

Jonathan
pwa
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Re: Covid Booster. Yes/No?

Post by pwa »

slowster wrote: 30 Oct 2021, 11:48am
pwa wrote: 30 Oct 2021, 10:27am I have no idea why Wales has had higher infection rates than most of England recently. Prior to England removing compulsory mask wearing in shops and on public transport, Wales had lower rates of infection. We have had a more cautious approach to mask wearing but have not seen any benefit from that. But mask wearing in schools in Wales has gone, so perhaps that is part of the explanation.
I suspect that those countries which have had lower infection rates for longish periods as a result of high levels of compliance with mask wearing and minimising social contacts compared to their neighbours and other other countries, will inevitably experience a jump in infection rates when the controls are reduced/withdrawn, simply because as a result of that past high compliance there will be a larger percentage of the population that is susceptible to infection. For other countries which have had higher infection rates for the same period, those past infections (in combination with vaccination) will substantially reduce the likelihood of (re-)infection.

I think that points to the difficulty facing many countries which have been more successful in suppressing infection using non-pharmaceutical measures. The vaccines do not provide 100% protection, so even when a very high percentage of a population have been vaccinated, there will still be an uptick in infections once the restrictions are reduced. That is the crux point now for many countries with high levels of vaccination: deciding when to reduce the restrictions and how, with the aim of minimising deaths and hospitalisations during that uptick. Too sharp an uptick might overwhelm health services.

This problem will probably be far worse in Australia and especially New Zealand. Even if they wait until they have 90% or more levels of vaccination before they open up, I expect there will be relatively high numbers of hospitalisations and deaths for some months. The impact on other countries of the more infectious variants, such as the Alpha (Kent) and Delta variants has been spread out over time, i.e. people who had caught the original variant or the Alpha variant were less likely to be infected later by the Delta variant. For Australia and New Zealand the Delta variant will probably quickly become the dominant variant as soon as they open up, and its higher transmissibility will result in a much faster and larger rise in infections, hospitalisations and deaths than would have been the case with the previous variants.
That all sounds about right.
Psamathe
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Re: Covid Booster. Yes/No?

Post by Psamathe »

I started the thread some time ago when the Gov. were still considering if/who would get boosters (not with regard to 3rd dose for those with potentially less responsive immune systems). Back then my concern was that worldwide vaccine supply was a limiting factor in suppressing Covid and the emergence of new variants and I questioned as to whether rather than booster vaccine if the UK would be better helping other countries without adequate supply get their vaccination numbers better (i.e. by giving them vaccine doses).

Since then much more data has emerged about the drop in antibody levels 6 months after the initial vaccination. So whilst I feel a bit more comfortable taking a booster dose, I do still question if my slightly reduced immunity deserves topping-up more than somebody who has no immunity getting a dose - not from a "charitable" perspective but rather that anywhere with high levels of virus is likely to cause new outbreaks and to enable the emergence of new variants (some of which will spread back to UK ...). That said, UK's lack of Covid strategy seems to be resulting in the UK being a country with high levels of infection ...

So, I have been questioning the vaccine strategy (what this thread started all about), still do though as things stand I'll be getting my booster when it is due but I will still be uncertain if the UK strategy is selfish western world being short-sighted or not.

Ian
Jdsk
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Re: Covid Booster. Yes/No?

Post by Jdsk »

Psamathe wrote: 30 Oct 2021, 4:41pmSince then much more data has emerged about the drop in antibody levels 6 months after the initial vaccination. So whilst I feel a bit more comfortable taking a booster dose, I do still question if my slightly reduced immunity deserves topping-up more than somebody who has no immunity getting a dose - not from a "charitable" perspective but rather that anywhere with high levels of virus is likely to cause new outbreaks and to enable the emergence of new variants (some of which will spread back to UK ...). That said, UK's lack of Covid strategy seems to be resulting in the UK being a country with high levels of infection ...

So, I have been questioning the vaccine strategy (what this thread started all about), still do though as things stand I'll be getting my booster when it is due but I will still be uncertain if the UK strategy is selfish western world being short-sighted or not.
Pollard's thoughts on what we can do as individuals:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... ooster-jab

Jonathan
Last edited by Jdsk on 30 Oct 2021, 7:58pm, edited 1 time in total.
Vorpal
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Re: Covid Booster. Yes/No?

Post by Vorpal »

Incorrect information & conspiracy theories removed from thread.

Before people add accusations to the thread.... there is nothing wrong with questions. In general, 'questioning' that includes unsubstantiated innuendo against the covid vaccine, conspiracy theories, etc. will be removed.

Thanks for understanding.
“In some ways, it is easier to be a dissident, for then one is without responsibility.”
― Nelson Mandela, Long Walk to Freedom
PDQ Mobile
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Re: Covid Booster. Yes/No?

Post by PDQ Mobile »

Vorpal wrote: 30 Oct 2021, 5:47pm Incorrect information & conspiracy theories removed from thread.

Before people add accusations to the thread.... there is nothing wrong with questions. In general, 'questioning' that includes unsubstantiated innuendo against the covid vaccine, conspiracy theories, etc. will be removed.

Thanks for understanding.
I have seen no one post conspiracy theories.

My question to you is ; do you dispute that China has refused to give WHO and others that crucial early patient data?

And if not why do you think they did it?
.....
And there is nothing conspiratorial about Wales's high case numbers, is there?
It's just something of a mystery.
Whether NZ and Australia follow suit is still an unknown, so we don't know if it's "about right".
It is speculation that you allow to stand over demonstrable facts.
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