Covid Booster. Yes/No? *** The Covid Thread ***

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Jdsk
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Re: Covid Booster. Yes/No?

Post by Jdsk »

francovendee wrote: 5 Dec 2021, 6:54pmIs it wrong to suspect that as this covid mutates it will need another top up or a modified vaccine on a more frequent than annual basis?
At the moment the new variant looks as if it won't require a modified vaccine. But if future variants do we have an enormous body of knowledge on the virus and massively improved and unprecedented and diversified technology for vaccine design and production.

I'd bet against the need for higher frequency once we're over this outbreak. The immunology hasn't been surprising and the waning of immunity after vaccination isn't particularly rapid, and wouldn't be such a problem if the prevalence and urgency were lower.

Jonathan

PS: Treatment of infection is also improving, and there's a lot more in the pipeline.
francovendee
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Re: Covid Booster. Yes/No?

Post by francovendee »

I hope your take on it is the correct one.
Certainly much has been learnt since the start of the ourbreak and I've heard the drug companies are already working on new anti covid drugs.
My concern is in spite of mass vaccination we are still seeing quite large numers of infections in people who have had both vaccinations.
This would indicate to me the vaccine's efficasy tails off rather more quickly than we were led to believe. The new variant has caused alarm in the UK and EU, enough to see governments rushing to administer boosters sooner than before.
The new variant is reportedly 2.4 times more contageous than Delta but no reprted deaths from catching it.
The new measures may be to protect the health service from being swamped but capacity in hospitals won't increase over night so this need to have a booster will happen again.

Here anyone over 18 can now have booster jab.

I've had the normal vaccinations for anyone living in the Europe plus hepatitis B.
The only vaccine I've needed more than once was anti tetanus and I think this is an ant bacterial treatment.

What other vaccinations require frequent booster jabs?
Psamathe
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Re: Covid Booster. Yes/No?

Post by Psamathe »

francovendee wrote: 5 Dec 2021, 7:39pm ......
What other vaccinations require frequent booster jabs?
What do you consider frequent?
My rabies was every 3-5 years though the way I get it boosted has extended this to longer (though in theory I should stick to 5 years but paperwork wise I'm using the 10 years).

My Japanese Encephalitis has a validity of 2 years but the 3rd becomes lifelong (I believe, I'll check when I get the injection) so is the last one a booster or the 3rd of a course?

Ian
Jdsk
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Re: Covid Booster. Yes/No?

Post by Jdsk »

francovendee wrote: 5 Dec 2021, 7:39pmWhat other vaccinations require frequent booster jabs?
Regimes and intervals for national programmes:
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... hedule.pdf

... and for travel vaccination (as Ian suggested):
https://travelhealthpro.org.uk/fact-list.php?list=4

Jonathan
Jdsk
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Re: Covid Booster. Yes/No?

Post by Jdsk »

francovendee wrote: 5 Dec 2021, 7:39pmThe only vaccine I've needed more than once was anti tetanus and I think this is an ant bacterial treatment.
Yes, tetanus is bacterial. And vaccination can be post-exposure rather than scheduled.

Jonathan
francovendee
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Re: Covid Booster. Yes/No?

Post by francovendee »

I'll have to wait until I can open the links on my laptop, won't open on the phone.
I'm guessing it's focused on vaccination for travel?
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mjr
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Re: Covid Booster. Yes/No?

Post by mjr »

francovendee wrote: 5 Dec 2021, 7:39pm Certainly much has been learnt since the start of the ourbreak and I've heard the drug companies are already working on new anti covid drugs.
Not just working, but approved. Both Merck and Pfizer have antiviral drugs for it now.
My concern is in spite of mass vaccination we are still seeing quite large numers of infections in people who have had both vaccinations.
This would indicate to me the vaccine's efficasy tails off rather more quickly than we were led to believe.
It doesn't mean that. The current vaccines aren't sterilising vaccines, so you can still get infected but don't get seriously ill. https://www.theatlantic.com/science/arc ... es/620023/
The new variant has caused alarm in the UK and EU, enough to see governments rushing to administer boosters sooner than before.
The new variant is reportedly 2.4 times more contageous than Delta but no reprted deaths from catching it.
It usually takes weeks to die from covid. Maybe longer now with better treatments. The new variant hasn't been about long enough for zero deaths to be reassuring.
MJR, mostly pedalling 3-speed roadsters. KL+West Norfolk BUG incl social easy rides http://www.klwnbug.co.uk
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Jdsk
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Re: Covid Booster. Yes/No?

Post by Jdsk »

francovendee wrote: 5 Dec 2021, 7:39pmMy concern is in spite of mass vaccination we are still seeing quite large numers of infections in people who have had both vaccinations.
A high fraction might seem counterintuitive. I suggest having a look at

"Why most people who now die with Covid in England have had a vaccination":
https://www.theguardian.com/theobserver ... vaccinated

which includes the thought experiment that helps a lot of people to understand why this might not be bad news.

Jonathan
Psamathe
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Re: Covid Booster. Yes/No?

Post by Psamathe »

Jdsk wrote: 5 Dec 2021, 9:25pm
francovendee wrote: 5 Dec 2021, 7:39pmMy concern is in spite of mass vaccination we are still seeing quite large numers of infections in people who have had both vaccinations.
A high fraction might seem counterintuitive. I suggest having a look at

"Why most people who now die with Covid in England have had a vaccination":
https://www.theguardian.com/theobserver ... vaccinated

which includes the thought experiment that helps a lot of people to understand why this might not be bad news.

Jonathan
Or listen to More or Less (BBC audio) about "Base Rate Fallacy" https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p09rkn2z (it's only 9 mins).

Ian
pwa
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Re: Covid Booster. Yes/No?

Post by pwa »

[XAP]Bob wrote: 5 Dec 2021, 12:51pm
pwa wrote: 4 Dec 2021, 7:06am
[XAP]Bob wrote: 3 Dec 2021, 10:05am

The problem is that a more transmissible variant will kill more people than a more deadly one.
Not necessarily. If you think about it, having our vaccine jabs has made Delta a less serious infection for most people. And because it makes most of us less ill than it would have before the vaccines, we still have fewer hospital admissions and deaths now than during the first wave, when there was less Covid about, but catching it was a bigger deal. It all depends on whether Omicron is milder, and by how much. Fingers crossed.
Vaccines or not - if you have two variants, one of which is more transmissible, the other more lethal...
More people will die from the more transmissible one (for most reasonable variance in the two factors), simply because you get many more infections with a more transmissible variant (infections growth is approximately exponential), and a smaller percentage of a much larger population is a larger absolute number.
I didn't make myself clear. What I am trying to say is that by having effective vaccines that make Delta less lethal to the vaccinated individual who gets it, we have simulated Delta being milder than the Covid involved in the First Wave. And by not having a lockdown we are simulating Delta being much more infectious. We have more Covid out there on the streets than in the First Wave but it is killing fewer people because most of us can handle it. If Omicron were a lot milder than Delta we could see a drop in mortality. But that is a big "if" and only time will tell if that is the case.
Jdsk
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Re: Covid Booster. Yes/No?

Post by Jdsk »

Jdsk wrote: 1 Dec 2021, 1:17pm
Jdsk wrote: 26 Nov 2021, 3:18pm
Jdsk wrote: 26 Nov 2021, 10:18am And there's a new report from Macmillan on the effects on breast cancer, but I haven't yet found it or read it.
Guardian coverage:
https://www.theguardian.com/society/202 ... id-crisis/
I've found their press release:
https://medium.com/macmillan-press-rele ... cef3#_edn1
And today's NAO report: "NHS backlogs and waiting times in England":
https://www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/uploa ... ngland.pdf

"This report looks in detail at backlogs and waiting times for elective and cancer care in the NHS in England. It explains how the current increased backlogs and waiting times have arisen, including the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic."
And from the Royal College of Emergency Medicine:

"RCEM Winter Flow Project Analysis of the data so far: 26 November 2021":
https://rcem.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2 ... 021221.pdf

includes:

Image

Jonathan
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mjr
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Re: Covid Booster. Yes/No?

Post by mjr »

I wonder if this link will be seen again with the booster jabs:
University of Glasgow - Schools - Adam Smith Business School - News - New research highlights a link between Brexit voting and COVID-19 death rates – https://www.gla.ac.uk/schools/business/ ... 84_en.html
MJR, mostly pedalling 3-speed roadsters. KL+West Norfolk BUG incl social easy rides http://www.klwnbug.co.uk
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francovendee
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Re: Covid Booster. Yes/No?

Post by francovendee »

I heard this from Professor Neil Professor today.
He expects the new variant to be the dominant strain by Christmas. He believes it's more likely to bypass the vaccines and more will have a mild illness but at present it seems the vaccine continues to offer protection from becoming seriously ill.
There may be more people who are asymptomatic.
Jdsk
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Re: Covid Booster. Yes/No?

Post by Jdsk »

francovendee wrote: 8 Dec 2021, 9:12am I heard this from Professor Neil Professor today.
He expects the new variant to be the dominant strain by Christmas. He believes it's more likely to bypass the vaccines and more will have a mild illness but at present it seems the vaccine continues to offer protection from becoming seriously ill.
There may be more people who are asymptomatic.
Neil Ferguson? Where has he said that the new variant will "bypass" the vaccine, please?

Thanks

Jonathan
francovendee
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Re: Covid Booster. Yes/No?

Post by francovendee »

Jdsk wrote: 8 Dec 2021, 9:14am
francovendee wrote: 8 Dec 2021, 9:12am I heard this from Professor Neil Professor today.
He expects the new variant to be the dominant strain by Christmas. He believes it's more likely to bypass the vaccines and more will have a mild illness but at present it seems the vaccine continues to offer protection from becoming seriously ill.
There may be more people who are asymptomatic.
Neil Ferguson? Where has he said that the new variant will "bypass" the vaccine, please?

Thanks

Jonathan
Broadcast on the Today programme on Radio 4. Not sure if it was recorded or live.
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