Jdsk wrote: ↑30 Nov 2021, 11:29am
PDQ Mobile wrote: ↑30 Nov 2021, 10:54am
So new (but the same/very similar) variants could conceivably arise "simultaneously" in different places?
The nomenclature is difficult (and not standardised). A variant in this sense is a complex and changing cluster of many different sequences. It isn't the result of a single mutation, and it shouldn't be expected to arise in one place at one time.
Much of the content of the link below is well beyond my ability to grasp it, but, as I understand it, it indicates that the virus is likely to develop the same or similar mutations in different hosts. The immuno-suppressed patient in the study was persistantly infected with the virus, and the mutations found in the patient are similar to/the same as those being seen latterly/now.
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33831372/
Also as I understand, mutations are vastly more likely to arise 'in the wild' in such people who have poor immune response. Infecting thousands with a normal immune response is less likely to result in a mutation occurring and successfully spreading, than in a very small number (one?) with poor immune response.
That in turn, I suspect, also illustrates the importance of the concept of herd immunity and minimising transmission by vaccination, masks, social distancing etc., i.e. it's not necessarily possible or easy to identify and protect all those with poor immune response
*directly*. It is best done indirectly by minimising spread among everyone.