Covid Booster. Yes/No? *** The Covid Thread ***

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Re: Covid Booster. Yes/No?

Post by Vorpal »

Psamathe wrote: 25 Nov 2021, 6:11pm
Vorpal wrote: 25 Nov 2021, 5:14pm
PDQ Mobile wrote: 25 Nov 2021, 5:02pm

Gwynedd has the second highest rate in the UK
Over 1000 cases per 100,000.

https://www.itv.com/news/wales/2021-11- ... -in-the-uk
I can easily accept that I did not have the latest information, or that there are towns in Wales with higher rates than in England, but none of those are anywhere near 7%
I have no idea what current figures are but worst I remember hearing maybe a few months ago was 1 in 50 or 1 in 55 thought to have Covid. Quick Google gives:
[url]https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/15/covid-infection-rate-rises-again-to-one-in-60-people-in-england[/url] 21 Oct 2021 wrote:Covid infection rate in England rises again to one in 60 people
...
At the peak of the second wave in early January, about one in 50 people were estimated to have coronavirus.
...
for Wales
[url]https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-rates-cases-deaths-wales-22272818[/url] 25 Nov 2021 wrote:...
The local authority with the highest infection rate in Wales remains Gwynedd with 854.2 cases per 100,000 population over seven days followed by Vale of Glamorgan with 661 and Monmouthshire with 574.1.
...
Ian
Thanks for that. I wasn't aware it was so high, nor that there was so big a discrepancy between estimated & reported cases.

I guess it shouldn't surprise me. I've seen quite a few posts on social media of people in the UK saying they are going to work, despite having a cold, the lurgy, etc. I posted replies to a couple of friends, and was told by one that they are out of sick leave, and the other that they'd lose their job if they didn't turn up, so employers aren't helping the situation, and statutory sick pay doesn't pay the bills.
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Jdsk
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Re: Covid Booster. Yes/No?

Post by Jdsk »

sjs wrote: 26 Nov 2021, 9:33am
gbnz wrote: 25 Nov 2021, 8:16pm
Vorpal wrote: 25 Nov 2021, 12:05pm That must be the test positivity rate?
I presume so. It's up to 7.8% now, public health figures showing a case rate of 787.2 No per 100000
Factor of 10 error in someone's interpretation of the data?
I think that the most likely cause is confusing the fraction of tests that were done that were positive with the fraction of the population of that town that had a positive test. As suggested by Vorpal (in that quote) and me.

If we knew the source of the numbers or which town it was it would probably be cleared up in a few tens (!) of minutes.

Jonathan
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Re: Covid Booster. Yes/No?

Post by Jdsk »

Vorpal wrote: 26 Nov 2021, 9:36amI guess it shouldn't surprise me. I've seen quite a few posts on social media of people in the UK saying they are going to work, despite having a cold, the lurgy, etc. I posted replies to a couple of friends, and was told by one that they are out of sick leave, and the other that they'd lose their job if they didn't turn up, so employers aren't helping the situation, and statutory sick pay doesn't pay the bills.
Yes. The perverse incentives should have been handled much better in the national policies. And the effect of that failure varies enormously with type of job and the usual demographic factors.

Jonathan
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Re: Covid Booster. Yes/No?

Post by [XAP]Bob »

Vorpal wrote: 26 Nov 2021, 9:36am I posted replies to a couple of friends, and was told by one that they are out of sick leave, and the other that they'd lose their job if they didn't turn up, so employers aren't helping the situation, and statutory sick pay doesn't pay the bills.
I am fortunate that I have never worked for an employer who counted how many sick days I had.
That's not to say it was unlimited, but the time I was off for nearly six months they paid full salary for the first three or four of those, and actively supported my phased return (paying more than pro rata hours).

However there is a difference between long term sick and something like the flu, where it's a defined short period, and you not being in the office is likely to reduce the spread of the illness, and therefore save more time for the company than you just staying at home.
A shortcut has to be a challenge, otherwise it would just be the way. No situation is so dire that panic cannot make it worse.
There are two kinds of people in this world: those can extrapolate from incomplete data.
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Re: Covid Booster. Yes/No?

Post by Jdsk »

Jdsk wrote: 24 Nov 2021, 12:31pm
slowster wrote: 24 Nov 2021, 11:49am It has been well publicised that the NHS is under great strain and many workers are burnt out or close to it, with increasing shortages of staff in some sectors, and that there is a huge backlog of treatments. What I have not seen is any attempt to quantify the impact of the diversion of NHS resources to Covid away from other treatments, especially those which require an ICU bed, on the mortality of those with other conditions, e.g. cancer. There was the odd human interest article in the media over the past two years in which some cancer patients described how treatment was stopped/delayed, which suggested to me that the reduction in levels of care would result in a significant number of deaths, i.e. statistically measurable.
"Evidence of the impact of COVID-19 across the cancer pathway: Key Stats":
https://www.cancerresearchuk.org/sites/ ... r_2021.pdf
And there's a new report from Macmillan on the effects on breast cancer, but I haven't yet found it or read it.
Guardian coverage:
https://www.theguardian.com/society/202 ... id-crisis/

Jonathan

Screenshot 2021-11-26 at 10.20.11.png
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Re: Covid Booster. Yes/No?

Post by slowster »

Jdsk wrote: 26 Nov 2021, 10:18am And there's a new report from Macmillan on the effects on breast cancer, but I haven't yet found it or read it.
Guardian coverage:
https://www.theguardian.com/society/202 ... id-crisis/
Thank you for posting that. I had been somewhat reassured by the previous link you posted from Cancer Research UK, but the MacMillan Cancer Support statement seems to suggest a significantly worse picture, with a large backlog that is not being properly addressed. Presumably with such large numbers of patients affected, a significant increase in (what would otherwise be/have been preventable) deaths in the next year or two and after, is now inevitable. The key question now is what action - if any - is taken, and how soon, to turn things around and get that backlog down quickly.

I am not optimistic, not least because a government that is blasé about a couple of extra tens of thousands of Covid deaths over a matter of weeks due to delaying lockdown and other non-pharmaceutical measures against the expert advice, is likely to be even more relaxed about similar numbers of additional people dying of cancer over a period of a few years.
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Re: Covid Booster. Yes/No?

Post by mjr »

Vorpal wrote: 26 Nov 2021, 9:36amI guess it shouldn't surprise me. I've seen quite a few posts on social media of people in the UK saying they are going to work, despite having a cold, the lurgy, etc. I posted replies to a couple of friends, and was told by one that they are out of sick leave, and the other that they'd lose their job if they didn't turn up, so employers aren't helping the situation, and statutory sick pay doesn't pay the bills.
Yes, I've heard of a business where the "covid response coordinator" is telling workers sent to testing by human-powered track-and-trace (the few of them!) to continue going into work until they get their test result, and saying that it's OK and they themselves did the same. I don't see how we're going to stop such unnecessary superspreading risks unless employers are again legally required to allow home-working (if possible) or full sick pay (if not) while isolating awaiting test results, or at least re-introduce covid control measures in workplaces when a worker is "pinged".
Jdsk wrote: 26 Nov 2021, 9:45amYes. The perverse incentives should have been handled much better in the national policies. And the effect of that failure varies enormously with type of job and the usual demographic factors.
How so? It seems to me more like it varies more with how caring (or not) the employer is for their workers, rather than the job type or demographics.
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Re: Covid Booster. Yes/No?

Post by mjr »

pwa wrote: 26 Nov 2021, 8:07am I live in the Vale of Glamorgan, though not in the more populous bit, and the perception here is that the high figures are driven by Covid running rampant in the schools. So the bulk of infections are in kids and their families. Obviously the virus does escape from there to other more vulnerable groups but at a lower rate. So while very busy, hospitals are not generally as over-run as you might imagine.
That's the perception but is it the reality? It seems easy to blame kids but I'm not familiar enough to find things on statswales easily. Do you get detailed local-area statistics for Wales like we do for England?

I did find that Wales normally has 157 invasive ventilator beds and currently 181 are occupied out of 214 available, with 54 being covid cases, so I think NHS Wales has done well to add about a third to ventilator bed capacity and pretty much cover the current extra covid demand.
My third jab is a week today.
I'm glad for you but I've more than a month to go, probably at my lowest ebb of immunity since vaccination, where I need to avoid triple-jabbed idiots letting down their guard as well as the not-bothering ones, who will probably be going to festive superspreading events aka workmates indoor pre-Christmas drinks.

And that's without that latest variant B.1.1.529 taking hold here.
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Re: Covid Booster. Yes/No?

Post by Jdsk »

mjr wrote: 26 Nov 2021, 11:37am
Jdsk wrote: 26 Nov 2021, 9:45amYes. The perverse incentives should have been handled much better in the national policies. And the effect of that failure varies enormously with type of job and the usual demographic factors.
How so? It seems to me more like it varies more with how caring (or not) the employer is for their workers, rather than the job type or demographics.
Some jobs are easier to do from home than others. The ones that aren't tend to be lower paid: moving and manipulating raw materials, retail, hospitality etc.

And it's easier to treat workers badly if their jobs are insecure, eg:
"One in 10 of those doing insecure work, such as zero-hours contracts and agency or gig economy jobs, said they had been to work within 10 days of a positive Covid test, according to research seen by the Observer. For workers overall the proportion is around one in 25."
"There is also evidence that families on low incomes are avoiding the Covid-19 testing system because they cannot afford to isolate if they test positive."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... ovid-rules

Jonathan
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Re: Covid Booster. Yes/No?

Post by Jdsk »

slowster wrote: 26 Nov 2021, 11:26am
Jdsk wrote: 26 Nov 2021, 10:18am And there's a new report from Macmillan on the effects on breast cancer, but I haven't yet found it or read it.
Guardian coverage:
https://www.theguardian.com/society/202 ... id-crisis/
Thank you for posting that. I had been somewhat reassured by the previous link you posted from Cancer Research UK, but the MacMillan Cancer Support statement seems to suggest a significantly worse picture, with a large backlog that is not being properly addressed. Presumably with such large numbers of patients affected, a significant increase in (what would otherwise be/have been preventable) deaths in the next year or two and after, is now inevitable. The key question now is what action - if any - is taken, and how soon, to turn things around and get that backlog down quickly.
Yes, what matters now is what we do now.

It's really hard to model effects on outcomes from this sort of delay. A couple of examples. Most population screening programmes pick up a lot of false-positives in their first stage because it can't currently be avoided. Lots of resources are expended in the last few months of life.

As a very crude generalisation the people who have to treat the patients would like:
• A reduction in the burden of COVID asap. And we know how to do that.
• More resources to treat everyone else, and very high predictability in what those resources will be whatever the amount.
• No more reorganisations for the time being.
• As little other political interference as possible. For example Ministers shutting up about remote consultations and not picking fights with GPs.

I don't think it's a great secret that the the plan for elective care in England will be available soon.

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Re: Covid Booster. Yes/No?

Post by mjr »

Jdsk wrote: 26 Nov 2021, 11:59am
mjr wrote: 26 Nov 2021, 11:37am
Jdsk wrote: 26 Nov 2021, 9:45amYes. The perverse incentives should have been handled much better in the national policies. And the effect of that failure varies enormously with type of job and the usual demographic factors.
How so? It seems to me more like it varies more with how caring (or not) the employer is for their workers, rather than the job type or demographics.
Some jobs are easier to do from home than others. The ones that aren't tend to be lower paid: moving and manipulating raw materials, retail, hospitality etc.

And it's easier to treat workers badly if their jobs are insecure, eg:
"One in 10 of those doing insecure work, such as zero-hours contracts and agency or gig economy jobs, said they had been to work within 10 days of a positive Covid test, according to research seen by the Observer. For workers overall the proportion is around one in 25."
"There is also evidence that families on low incomes are avoiding the Covid-19 testing system because they cannot afford to isolate if they test positive."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... ovid-rules
They may be correlated, but I maintain that "insecure work" and "forcing covid-positive workers to work" are both caused by "less caring employer", rather than your suggested direct link between them.

It seems that "research seen by the Observer" is https://www.thersa.org/press/releases/2 ... d-symptoms and nothing there seems to suggest that job type (primary/secondary/services, or retail/wholesale, however you want to split them) or demographics are related. The only job type split suggested is key/non-key, with key workers finding it more difficult to take sick leave.

Also, I note that January 2021 report predates the July surrender and I don't expect things to have improved with weaker regulations for employers.
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Re: Covid Booster. Yes/No?

Post by gbnz »

sjs wrote: 26 Nov 2021, 9:33am
I presume so. It's up to 7.8% now, public health figures showing a case rate of 787.2 No per 100000
Factor of 10 error in someone's interpretation of the data?
[/quote]

Yes, I noted on posting that the official figures were out by a Factor of 10. Must be due to some bizarre official manner of calculating a percentage?

Though the actual figure should now read 6.825%. Population size 8000, weekly case no. 546 No. positive cases (Nb. A reduction in case no.'s in past 24 Hr's, thus reducing my calculation from 7.8 to 6.825)
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Re: Covid Booster. Yes/No?

Post by Jdsk »

gbnz wrote: 26 Nov 2021, 12:59pmThough the actual figure should now read 6.825%. Population size 8000, weekly case no. 546 No. positive cases (Nb. A reduction in case no.'s in past 24 Hr's, thus reducing my calculation from 7.8 to 6.825)
The actual figure for what, please? Because it sounds like the fraction of test results that are positive.

What's the source of these figures, please?

Thanks

Jonathan
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Re: Covid Booster. Yes/No?

Post by Jdsk »

gbnz wrote: 26 Nov 2021, 12:59pm
sjs wrote: 26 Nov 2021, 9:33am I presume so. It's up to 7.8% now, public health figures showing a case rate of 787.2 No per 100000
Factor of 10 error in someone's interpretation of the data?
Yes, I noted on posting that the official figures were out by a Factor of 10. Must be due to some bizarre official manner of calculating a percentage?
I suspect that there isn't an error in the official figures and that this is comparing two different measures. As discussed above.

Jonathan
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Re: Covid Booster. Yes/No?

Post by Jdsk »

Jdsk wrote: 26 Nov 2021, 10:18am
Jdsk wrote: 24 Nov 2021, 12:31pm
slowster wrote: 24 Nov 2021, 11:49am It has been well publicised that the NHS is under great strain and many workers are burnt out or close to it, with increasing shortages of staff in some sectors, and that there is a huge backlog of treatments. What I have not seen is any attempt to quantify the impact of the diversion of NHS resources to Covid away from other treatments, especially those which require an ICU bed, on the mortality of those with other conditions, e.g. cancer. There was the odd human interest article in the media over the past two years in which some cancer patients described how treatment was stopped/delayed, which suggested to me that the reduction in levels of care would result in a significant number of deaths, i.e. statistically measurable.
"Evidence of the impact of COVID-19 across the cancer pathway: Key Stats":
https://www.cancerresearchuk.org/sites/ ... r_2021.pdf
And there's a new report from Macmillan on the effects on breast cancer, but I haven't yet found it or read it.
Guardian coverage:
https://www.theguardian.com/society/202 ... id-crisis/
I've found their press release:
https://medium.com/macmillan-press-rele ... cef3#_edn1

Jonathan
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