Covid Booster. Yes/No? *** The Covid Thread ***

[Jdsk]

If it behaves like a typical virus, it should evolve to be more easily spread, but less dangerous to the host. That’s the way viruses typically adapt to survive.

I don't think that there is a typical or expected pattern of evolution for pathogenic viruses.

Jonathan

[Jdsk]

There is a lot of concern about the new variant and how it might affect things, but one more optimistic possibility has hardly been mentioned by the media. It could turn out to be more easily transmitted, but also milder in its effects. If so, it could displace the Delta variant and reduce hospital admissions and deaths. But it will be weeks and possibly months before we know whether it will turn out this way, or whether it will be more of a threat.

That timescale sounds right to me. And there'll be several different lines of evidence: spread in the population, laboratory studies of immunity using specimens from the population, in vivo models of infection, structure-function models... each with their own timescales.

But our knowledge of immunology has performed extremely well.

And the ability to produce multiple vaccines that were both effective and safe was staggering, and it was done very quickly. If new vaccines are needed then I expect that to be the same again. There will need to be some big decisions about how rapidly to authorise and use them if they are very similar to what's already out there.

Jonathan

[Pendodave]

I wonder how Norfolk is going to cope with the massive likely increase in number of boosters (i.e. lowering age and reduced internal)? When I last checked only 2 places offered, nearest 25 miles away. CCG said it was because it now included down to 40 year olds and thus system was fully booked. Given they've not increased capacity to cope with 40+ and 6 month interval, what now?

All very well Gov. making these changes but capacity can't properly handle the current levels.

Ian

Here in East Herts it seems that boosters require significant travelling. The site where the first 2 jabs were administered has shut down. If you can get an appointment at all, it is in a town at least 10 miles away with significant walking and public transport jiggery pokery to get to.
Is the current vax program being run by a different bunch? It certainly seems that way from here.

[Jdsk]

Is the current vax program being run by a different bunch? It certainly seems that way from here.

There's very little available on how the decisions are being made, but not really.

But as several posters have noted the location may have changed from that for the first doses. It's widely assumed that this is to unload general practices so that they can get on with other aspects of care and other immunisation programmes, including 'flu.

Jonathan

[reohn2]

I've always felt most people will end up having it inspite of all precautions.

It depends what you mean by "it". I don't expect that most of us will catch it in the wild and and have symptomatic infection.

Jonathan

AFAICS what really matters is if people do get it they recover quickly,fully and with no severe symptoms,hopefully vaccination goes a long way toward that.
The alternative is the NHS swamped with sufferers bed blocking hospitals along with long Covid after infection as a result sucking in resources that could be used to treat other illnesses,which is what has happened already.
That's why precautions such as mask wearing,cleanliness and avoiding crowded indoor places need to be taken seriously especially when a new variant is discovered,presently IME that's become quite lax in most people who AFAICT have become "Covid19 nonchalant" recently,something I find concerning.

[thirdcrank]

It's odd that the original vaccination arrangements - introduced quickly and rapidly built-up from almost nothing - seemed a lot better organised than the current boosters. As I've already posted, we had our boosters in our local health centre - a five minute walk - but this seems to vary by area. Perhaps difficulties get more publicity than straightforward experiences.

Re unloading general practices, first time round I initially booked to go to York (Park-and-ride car park) a thirty mile drive each way which would have been a chance to get out in lockdown and to cock-a-snook at York police who were issuing fixed penalties like confetti. That was superseded by invitations to a local centre in a large GP practice. We went together and it was very well-attended and organised with military precision (without armed forces.) Morley Lions marshalled the parking and a lot of healthcare professionals organised everything - socially-distanced queuing; verification of ID etc; the actual jab; a timed and supervised recovery period. All when further mass vaccination centres were opening: in our area at Elland Road stadium.

[PDQ Mobile]

If it behaves like a typical virus, it should evolve to be more easily spread, but less dangerous to the host. That’s the way viruses typically adapt to survive.

I don't think that there is a typical or expected pattern of evolution for pathogenic viruses.

Jonathan

I have wondered about virus evolution/ mutation.

Does a new variant always come from a single source/ individual?

Or is a sort of parallel evolution possible?

So that a new variant could arise in entirely different places at more or less the same time.

I say this given the untold numbers of virus particles in present circulation and mutations are presumably being "tried out" all the time .

[Jdsk]

I have wondered about virus evolution/ mutation.

Does a new variant always come from a single source/ individual?

Or is a sort of parallel evolution possible?

So that a new variant could arise in entirely different places at more or less the same time.

I say this given the untold numbers of virus particles in present circulation and mutations are presumably being "tried out" all the time .

I find this a very difficult subject, and can't hold a consistent model in my mind, and have to keep checking.

This article seems helpful. It's from March 2021 so doesn't discuss the latest variants:
https://royalsociety.org/blog/2021/03/h ... -evolving/

And a few thoughts about how to think about this:

A variant isn't a single consistent RNA sequence. It's a crude term for a very large collection of different sequences that have enough in common to make it worth lumping them together. So any variant involves lots of different mutations. They might have occurred at different times and in different places.

Mutations are random in one sense, but some regions of the sequence may be more likely to mutate than others.

As vertebrates we tend to think of mutation and inheritance as rather slow and vertical between distinct generations. But for this virus and disease they're rapid and can be horizontal (= lateral). (The typical mechanism for lateral transfer in viruses is natural recombination.) The evolutionary pattern isn't a well-organised tree but more of a tangled hedge.

So the evolution isn't really parallel in the sense of the same complete sequence occurring independently. But it might well look more like that than we expect.

Jonathan

[PDQ Mobile]

^^
Thanks.
So new (but the same/very similar) variants could conceivably arise "simultaneously" in different places?

If so it leads to questions about the effectiveness of travel restrictions surely?

[Marcus Aurelius]

^^
Thanks.
So new (but the same/very similar) variants could conceivably arise "simultaneously" in different places?

If so it leads to questions about the effectiveness of travel restrictions surely?

Yes, and no. The key thing about this particular virus, is that is isn’t behaving as an RNA virus normally does, where mutations happen willy nilly, and several could appear in parallel, in different locations. Unusually ( almost uniquely for this type of virus ) it actually controls itself, so that it ( tries to ) maintain it’s proven successful form, that’s far more typical of a DNA virus. The only reason that the mutations we’ve seen have appeared and established themselves, is because there was so much of it about.

[Jdsk]

Unusually ( almost uniquely for this type of virus ) it actually controls itself, so that it ( tries to ) maintain it’s proven successful form, that’s far more typical of a DNA virus.

Is this a reference to coronavirus proofreading exoribonuclease, please?

Thanks

Jonathan

[Jdsk]

So new (but the same/very similar) variants could conceivably arise "simultaneously" in different places?

The nomenclature is difficult (and not standardised). A variant in this sense is a complex and changing cluster of many different sequences. It isn't the result of a single mutation, and it shouldn't be expected to arise in one place at one time.

Jonathan

[Psamathe]

Common sense to be compulsory again from today
The UK government has announced that common sense will once again become compulsory this week.

“Once again, the general public will be legally required to use common sense and common decency,” a spokesperson for the prime minister said. “We are putting these measures in place now, so that at Christmas people can act as though their actions have no consequences or impact on others again.”

The steps come into effect troday, having allowed people time to make a carefree visit to Peppa Pig World beforehand, they added.

Exemptions will apply for those that have never been able to show any sign of common sense or common decency – such as government ministers.

(Note for some forum members - it's a spoof site, a joke, for amusement not something "to be believed").

Ian

[slowster]

So new (but the same/very similar) variants could conceivably arise "simultaneously" in different places?

The nomenclature is difficult (and not standardised). A variant in this sense is a complex and changing cluster of many different sequences. It isn't the result of a single mutation, and it shouldn't be expected to arise in one place at one time.

Much of the content of the link below is well beyond my ability to grasp it, but, as I understand it, it indicates that the virus is likely to develop the same or similar mutations in different hosts. The immuno-suppressed patient in the study was persistantly infected with the virus, and the mutations found in the patient are similar to/the same as those being seen latterly/now.

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33831372/

Also as I understand, mutations are vastly more likely to arise 'in the wild' in such people who have poor immune response. Infecting thousands with a normal immune response is less likely to result in a mutation occurring and successfully spreading, than in a very small number (one?) with poor immune response.

That in turn, I suspect, also illustrates the importance of the concept of herd immunity and minimising transmission by vaccination, masks, social distancing etc., i.e. it's not necessarily possible or easy to identify and protect all those with poor immune response *directly*. It is best done indirectly by minimising spread among everyone.

[PDQ Mobile]

The Omicron variant was detected in the Netherlands before two flights arrived from South Africa carrying the virus, Dutch health officials said. “We have found the Omicron coronavirus variant in two test samples that were taken on 19 November and 23 November,” the National Institute for Public Health (RIVM) said. “It is not clear yet whether these people have visited Southern Africa.”

From today's live briefing.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/ ... 6028247e84