Independence?

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pete75
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Re: Independence?

Post by pete75 »

geocycle wrote:I think we'll all be worse off if the UK collapses, certainly culturally but also probably economically. It's hard to imagine a country half the size of Belgium having much resilience. But, my main concern is the implication for Wales and NI. Wales would probably seek some additional independence but it could get very messy again in NI. I also worry about the sectarian consequences in Glasgow if the Unionists are marginalised.


Scotland is almost three times the size of Belgium.
'Give me my bike, a bit of sunshine - and a stop-off for a lunchtime pint - and I'm a happy man.' - Reg Baker
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Mick F
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Re: Independence?

Post by Mick F »

..... and largely empty.

Belgium 10.8m people
Scotland 5m people
Mick F. Cornwall
snibgo
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Re: Independence?

Post by snibgo »

pete75 wrote:David William Donald Cameron, son of Ian Donald Cameron is more than a tad Scottish.

Ah, yes. Wiki says his father was Scottish (as was mine). He's also a direct descendant of King William IV (which I'm not).
pete75
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Re: Independence?

Post by pete75 »

Mick F wrote:..... and largely empty.

Belgium 10.8m people
Scotland 5m people


Nowt wrong with that. Give me what you call an empty but many of us call an uncrowded country any day.
'Give me my bike, a bit of sunshine - and a stop-off for a lunchtime pint - and I'm a happy man.' - Reg Baker
snibgo
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Re: Independence?

Post by snibgo »

Radio4's Any Questions and Any Answers today was devoted to the topic.

A recent article reminds us of the details that must work to prevent things going pear-shaped.
ambodach
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Re: Independence?

Post by ambodach »

The argument that a couple of prime or any other ministers are nominally Scottish does not really stand up in practice.Sure Bliar was at a minor "public" school in Scotland but that means nothing, generally the education is based on English exams. I know quite a few emigrants who now regard themselves quite rightly as Scots citizens and realise they are better off living here than where they came from in England. Most claim to support the SNP and vote for them at elections. Those with Scottish sounding names in government mostly regard themselves as certainly not Scottish since their career structure is based entirely on Westminster. The real answer to the antipathy towards Scottish independence in government circles is simply self interest and the loss of their cushie numbers and sense of self importance of most Scottish MP's.Getting too near their constituents is not good news. Anyway for the forseeable future we will be totally bored with for and against arguments regarding independence or even what question to ask. I have an interest in politics and used to be an activist but really nowadays it just gets too much. Let's see what question they come up with that covers every eventuality and then no doubt Alex Salmond will be accused of fixing the result when it goes in his favour.Do I sound like a cynic? :?
snibgo
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Re: Independence?

Post by snibgo »

I'd love to think there will be no nationalism, ethnicity-ism or other small-minded racism in the question of independence. But I don't think there's any chance of that.

One of the strengths of the UK (IMO) is the combination of viewpoints from the constituent countries. If we each go our insular ways, we all lose.

ambodach wrote:... and the loss of their cushie numbers ...

In any big reshuffle of power, such as this, we can count on everyone trying to slice the pie in their own favour. And each slice gets further divided into all the new armies of ministers and civil servants, all fighting for their own particular crumbs.
thirdcrank
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Re: Independence?

Post by thirdcrank »

snibgo wrote:I'd love to think there will be no nationalism, ethnicity-ism or other small-minded racism in the question of independence. But I don't think there's any chance of that.....
It seems to me that the thing being lost to view in this fog is the fundamental effect of social class. Many areas of the UK have suffered disproportionately from unemployment caused by economic changes. Obvious examples have been heavy engineering in its various forms, manufacturing, deep sea fishing, agriculture, and coal mining. It's hardly surprising that many people blame politicians for this. (Perhaps part of the problem has been politicians pretending they have the answers.) Since London is the political centre of the UK, it's easy to make the connection: London is in England therefore these problems are the fault of the English. The inconvenient fact that there is no real political disadvantage based on national origins in the UK, is dismissed by implying that by being elected MP, people inevitably become somehow "englishified." A closer examination shows that the "gentry" have almost always managed to achieve disproportionate electoral success, no matter what party they have represented or which part of the UK they come from. If they were not born sucking the fabled silver spoon, they have tried to make sure they soon acquired a full canteen. The "right" education is but one example of this.

Anybody who is bored by this had better dig in for the long haul. I fancy Salmond would be the last to be satisfied by a swift result, even on the most favourable terms. He knows that he has to appear to be controlling the entire proceedings, and for as long as possible.
Malaconotus
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Re: Independence?

Post by Malaconotus »

Scotland has wind, water, and oil. It has a history of producing some of the finest minds and many of the industrial revolution's greatest inventions, and has three of the top 100 universities in the world. It has no population pressures. And it's beautiful. Why would it want, or need, union with England?
The Mechanic
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Re: Independence?

Post by The Mechanic »

ambodach wrote:The argument that a couple of prime or any other ministers are nominally Scottish does not really stand up in practice.Sure Bliar was at a minor "public" school in Scotland but that means nothing, generally the education is based on English exams. I know quite a few emigrants who now regard themselves quite rightly as Scots citizens and realise they are better off living here than where they came from in England. Most claim to support the SNP and vote for them at elections. Those with Scottish sounding names in government mostly regard themselves as certainly not Scottish since their career structure is based entirely on Westminster. The real answer to the antipathy towards Scottish independence in government circles is simply self interest and the loss of their cushie numbers and sense of self importance of most Scottish MP's.Getting too near their constituents is not good news. Anyway for the forseeable future we will be totally bored with for and against arguments regarding independence or even what question to ask. I have an interest in politics and used to be an activist but really nowadays it just gets too much. Let's see what question they come up with that covers every eventuality and then no doubt Alex Salmond will be accused of fixing the result when it goes in his favour.Do I sound like a cynic? :?



Yes
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thirdcrank
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Re: Independence?

Post by thirdcrank »

Malaconotus wrote:Scotland has wind, water, and oil. It has a history of producing some of the finest minds and many of the industrial revolution's greatest inventions, and has three of the top 100 universities in the world. It has no population pressures. And it's beautiful. Why would it want, or need, union with England?


Your second sentence "It has a history ...." just supports what I was saying above (unless you have some dodgy ideas about race.) Rather than being expolited, I'd suggest that Scotland has done pretty well out of the Union with England, largely though being at the heart of the British Empire, rather than being part of the rest. The fact that Great Britain lead the Industrial Revolution also played a part in all our prosperity.

The question you pose sounds fine and dandy, but rather misses the point that the union already exists. The issue then, is one of staying or leaving. In the post-Empire, post-Industrial Britain, things are changing and we are dropping down the international tables. The financial situation of western world is shaky, and seems to be put at further risk because nobody has much idea of the extent of the debts. Things seem to have got much worse recently, because attempts by a number of governments to stimulate their economies with cheap money have sucked in imports from the Far East (something I presume you know all about in the bike trade) and increased reckless risk-taking by the banks (including Scotland's own financial institutions.) For there own separate reasons, some of the smaller countries which seemed to be doing so well when the going was good, such as Ireland and Iceland are now in the mire, and with nobody really to turn to when the going got tough.

It seems obvious to me that disentangling all the complications of such a long period of union would be a difficult endeavour, even without political manoeuvring. I don't pretend to be able to tell the difference between people who are highlighting real potential problems and those who are just muddying the waters in support of their own preferred outcome. When sentiment among international investors (AKA lenders) is so sensitive to the slightest hints of default, both sides in this debate may be overcome by events outside their control, but of their own causing. I fear that the question of who controls the oil revenue may ultimately be quite insignificant.

I think things are much more profound than your analysis. (Which may be why Salmond seems to be keen to avoid a simple IN / OUT? referendum.)
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georgew
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Re: Independence?

Post by georgew »

Why is no-one mentioning the huge benefits to England if Scotland becomes independent? With no Scottish Labour MPs at Westminster this would mean that the Tories would govern in perpetuity. The English could look forward to the wholesale privatisation of the Prison Service, the Education system, and the NHS, in a short time time England would resemble the USA which, as we know, is the envy of the whole world.
More seriously, while the economic gains/losses of independence is important, equally so is the huge divergence of social and cultural values which have been highlighted by recent government policies. Scotland's social and cultural values have traditionally been more egalitarian than those of England. Up here, we look aghast as we watch the privatisation of the NHS and the Education system as well as the measures taken to cut the benefits of the sick, the disabled and the low-paid (mainly women).
We still believe in Scotland, that the mark of a civilised society lies in the way these groups are treated, but we have no voice politically given the imbalance in population and voting numbers.
We can look forward to all sort of skulduggery by the unionists as the campaign progresses similar that of the 1975.

" In 1975, the Government faced a dilemma: how to exploit the potential of its new oil fields without fuelling demands for Scottish independence. So it buried the evidence."
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/th ... 18697.html


Personally, I would rather have Independence even though this would mean being worse off in economic terms.
thirdcrank
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Re: Independence?

Post by thirdcrank »

georgew wrote:Why is no-one mentioning the huge benefits to England if Scotland becomes independent? With no Scottish Labour MPs at Westminster this would mean that the Tories would govern in perpetuity. ....
I've alreaady mentioned the probable electoral advantage to the Tories, several times elsewhere on here, if not on this thread. I suspect it might be relatively short term, in that in the absence of an effective opposition, the Tory party would probably split down pro/ anti EU lines. Of course, in the language of this debate, that's a matter for "us." :mrgreen:

Or rather it will be if...
irc
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Re: Independence?

Post by irc »

thirdcrank wrote:
georgew wrote:Why is no-one mentioning the huge benefits to England if Scotland becomes independent? With no Scottish Labour MPs at Westminster this would mean that the Tories would govern in perpetuity. ....
I've alreaady mentioned the probable electoral advantage to the Tories, several times elsewhere on here, if not on this thread. I suspect it might be relatively short term, in that in the absence of an effective opposition, the Tory party would probably split down pro/ anti EU lines. Of course, in the language of this debate, that's a matter for "us." :mrgreen:


If you look at the majorities of Tony Bliars three victories - 179, 167, and 66 then even if Labour lost the 56 Scottish MPs they had in 1997 they would still have an overall majority.

The suggestion the Scottish independence would mean a permanent Tory govt for the remainder of the UK is a myth. The truth is that by and large the UK gets the govt that England votes for.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Un ... _elections
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Mick F
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Re: Independence?

Post by Mick F »

irc wrote:The truth is that by and large the UK gets the govt that England votes for.
I agree. This is the case for Wales and N Ireland too I suppose.

The latest arguments seem to be about the armed forces and the nuclear deterrent.
Mick F. Cornwall
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