The end of unpowered cycling?

[kwackers]

Apparently they are launching in 16 Cities worldwide, tailoring the max speed for the legal situation is each country. The UK will of course be limited to 15mph, but with the whole shebang programmable over the air via a mobile phone app it shouldn't take too long to hack that!

France and Italy have no such legislation in place, so E-bikes that can currently do 50 mph+ have no problems there. I'm sure if electric assist takes off as I predict it will, especially in a commuter scenario then the current ludicrous 15mph limit will be scrapped. On a good day even I can do 15mph uphill, never mind down!

Get thee behind me (quite literally on my 30mph assist) Luddites!!

50mph isn't electric assist - it's a motorbike. The power required to obtain those speeds is huge compared to the puny efforts of your average commuter so assist is nonsense.

It's also absolute nonsense to think the limit will be raised. What will happen is anything faster will be classed as a motorbike and require registration, license and insurance. If you changed that you'd also have to remove a lot of small motorcycles from the same regulations - or have some bizarre concept of licensing class which includes the motor type.

The average speed of a bicycle on the roads isn't much over 10mph. Do you really think Joe Public would stand for unlicensed and uninsured cyclists batting around consistently at 30mph plus? Not only that but we're now in the territory where that minor bump with a pedestrian/vehicle becomes potentially much more serious or even fatal. Then there are the issues of shared paths etc.

In the event of a 'fatal' expect forensics to pull your e-bike apart and come down on you like a ton of bricks if it's found to be 'dialed' up.

With electric assist @ 15mph I don't think anyone really cares what sort of bike it is. But if it turns out the majority are faster then that will create a significant increase in accidents involving them which in turn will result in (not unreasonable) calls for them to be insured.
It's not too far of a stretch to see where that might lead.

However keep up the optimism. I've set a reminder for 2 years time then I can look back at this thread for a good laugh.
(Oh - I saw an e-bike today, first I've seen in months. That makes the uptake near me about 0.01%. To reach your target, growth is going to be phenomenal. )

[RogerThat]

But they're not really mopeds are they? The bikes are all predicated on the 'electric assist' ethos, ie bicycles which require the majority of work (for most of the time) via pedalling. This is a completely different ball game. I've absolutely no doubt that E-bikes will revolutionise modern cycling in exactly the same way the tidal waves of BMX and then Mountain biking hit.

I can only eat that the few friends I have in the trade, all of them without exception are rubbing their hands at the prospect, not too mention tooling up for the revolution! I think the Jivr bike above (which is effectively seeking to sell to national governments rather than on an individual basis) will be a very interesting model to watch. They'll take the 'Boris Bike' market by force of argument (which is currently being rolled out UK wide in most sizable cities), and after that when they get market saturation, I'd expect the general consumer market to fall like dominoes.

[RogerThat]

Apparently they are launching in 16 Cities worldwide, tailoring the max speed for the legal situation is each country. The UK will of course be limited to 15mph, but with the whole shebang programmable over the air via a mobile phone app it shouldn't take too long to hack that!

It's also absolute nonsense to think the limit will be raised. What will happen is anything faster will be classed as a motorbike and require registration, license and insurance. If you changed that you'd also have to remove a lot of small motorcycles from the same regulations - or have some bizarre concept of licensing class which includes the motor type.

The average speed of a bicycle on the roads isn't much over 10mph. Do you really think Joe Public would stand for unlicensed and uninsured cyclists batting around consistently at 30mph plus? Not only that but we're now in the territory where that minor bump with a pedestrian/vehicle becomes potentially much more serious or even fatal. Then there are the issues of shared paths etc.

In the event of a 'fatal' expect forensics to pull your e-bike apart and come down on you like a ton of bricks if it's found to be 'dialed' up.)

JIVR expect to ship 100,000+ units by year end. All sold via the internet, on a simultaneous release in Europe, China and America. You're forgetting the indomitable power of Brussels. If the Europeans get behind E-bikes then it's Brussels, not the UK government who[list=][/list] will dictate the laws (or more likely a relaxing in them) to popularise it.

You use the word 'nonsense' a lot, but have so far completely failed to reference any external data or even online references to support your clearly biased (as I am!) rhetoric. Which is fair enough, but you're standing in a tide of sand trying to deny the wall of water coming towards you!

For governments (local and international), health care providers, green energy groups, ecology pressure groups and your average overweight Briton the sheer allure and benefits if E-bikes will be impossible to resist. An interesting place to watch will be China and the far east. In China e-bike sales have just passed 200 million units, that's a very, very significant number. As a centre for global manufacture of E-bikes, cost, which has been a huge barrier to entry before will plummet. My lbs is expecting a fully functional and reliable e-bike under £400 by Christmas. Once you educate a clearly sedentary and ignorant population, and eliminate slow charging and huge batteries, and perhaps introduce a few dedicated bicycle commuter routes into every UK city, the take up will be rapid.

http://qz.com/137518/consumers-the-worl ... hate-them/

[RogerThat]

Apparently they are launching in 16 Cities worldwide, tailoring the max speed for the legal situation is each country. The UK will of course be limited to 15mph, but with the whole shebang programmable over the air via a mobile phone app it shouldn't take too long to hack that!


However keep up the optimism. I've set a reminder for 2 years time then I can look back at this thread for a good laugh.
(Oh - I saw an e-bike today, first I've seen in months. That makes the uptake near me about 0.01%. To reach your target, growth is going to be phenomenal. )

I saw my first road bike with disc braking about 4 years ago. At the time I thought, what a ridiculous over engineered and useless development in cycling. I feel a bit foolish thinking that now: every other road bike we saw on Sunday on our local cycle route, disc brakes.

Evolution comes in tidal waves, not drips!

[beardy]

I wouldnt doubt that these electric bikes could make great in roads into the existing small motorbike market in countries like China, Indonesia and Thailand where such vehicles are already popular in the petrol form.

However I think that mopeds are rarer than pedal cycles in the UK and around here for sure.

Small (around 125cc) motorcycles are also quite rare and most people move to something bigger when their licence allows.

[RogerThat]

E-bikes, they're boring, huh? !!

Apparently not so:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=5_h-WxZgMfM

Here's one we made earlier (25mph) for 100 euros

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=lziPHrg5Rpw

[kwackers]

You use the word 'nonsense' a lot, but have so far completely failed to reference any external data or even online references to support your clearly biased (as I am!) rhetoric. Which is fair enough, but you're standing in a tide of sand trying to deny the wall of water coming towards you!

I'm not denying anything. I think e-bikes are great, I've said I'd buy one when I can no longer ride a regular bike. I just find some of your arguments to be nonsensical and based almost entirely on an enthusiastic interpretation of a small amount of data.

For governments (local and international), health care providers, green energy groups, ecology pressure groups and your average overweight Briton the sheer allure and benefits if E-bikes will be impossible to resist.

That statement is completely at odds with your comments upstream where you're enthusing about 'fast' e-bikes. 15mph assisted bikes are definitely an improvement, 30, 40 or 50mph bikes aren't, as I said they're just motorbikes and the 'assist' is in name only in the same way the pedals on a moped were never rotated in anger.
Plus you were talking about 'hacking' the bikes to remove limits - something which again makes the idea of assist laughable.

Why not admit it, they're just motorcycles in disguise? Pretty much everything you've posted points to that fact.
Despite what you think, Brussels won't make EU wide policy changes regarding licensing nor if it turns out the majority of e-bikes are indeed 30mph motorcycles are they likely to interfere when the government decides to either clamp down on them or insist on insurance.

An interesting place to watch will be China and the far east. In China e-bike sales have just passed 200 million units, that's a very, very significant number.

China is interesting not least because car sales are really taking off and bicycle use is falling through the floor. People aspire and e-bikes aren't an aspiration.
Incidentally you fail to mention that that's total sales, including replacements etc. In 2013 sales were actually 37 million (according to those with vested interest) which represents a 5.4% increase year on year. Impressive no doubt, but even with exponential rate rises we're a lot longer than 2 years away from the explosion you mention.

Incidentally I had my first disk brake on a bicycle around 10 years ago. Know how many bikes with discs I have now? None.
I'd have one, I quite like them but I wouldn't touch an hydraulic system again (it's the only time I've had a braking system fail catastrophically when used in anger). I think I'd go for a cable based system where you can easily check the state of the mechanics.

[RogerThat]

Enthusiastic interpretation of data = marketing!

[MarkF]

These machines are competing with the moped market rather than the cycle market. For some unknown reason people just dont go for these types of machine.

I don't think they are, mopeds are expensive and you need tax and insurance and enter the complicated world of licenses and law. Importantly, they are far more dangerous (IMO) than an E-Bike, I've 35 years of motorcycling under my belt but would be scared at the thought of using a restricted moped.

[landsurfer]

I cycle.
They cycle.
Cycling happens.
My body as a power source.
Their body and a battery.
A battery and their body.
No laws
No restrictions.
No guidance.
Who cares!
What does it matter!
I cycle.
They cycle.
Cycling happens.
The wind blows for all of us.
We are outside.
In the world.
We see things.
Enjoy the experience of the world.
On two wheels all works.

[beardy]

These machines are competing with the moped market rather than the cycle market. For some unknown reason people just dont go for these types of machine.

I don't think they are, mopeds are expensive and you need tax and insurance and enter the complicated world of licenses and law. Importantly, they are far more dangerous (IMO) than an E-Bike, I've 35 years of motorcycling under my belt but would be scared at the thought of using a restricted moped.

I was referring to the machines which Roger That was talking about, which would also be expensive and have the same legal obligations as mopeds.

[Chris the Sheep]

What a refreshing change this thread is - as an ebike / pedelec rider I'm used to cycling forums being full of hate for them, or posts supporting the bikes 'for the disabled' or whatever.

I'm 50 and in good health, and I've been cycling to work (20 miles return) for nearly five years now - but on windy days (I'm on the coast) I would use my 1000cc motorbike. Since buying a decent pedelec a couple of years ago I hardly use the motorbike, but I still ride my conventional bike at weekends and on days when the weather's favourable - it's not all or nothing.

For me the pedelec has two big advantages - yes, it cancels out headwinds and hills, but it also makes riding in traffic MUCH easier. OK it only cruises at 15mph, but it gets there in an instant and that really does make a difference.

I'm capable of mixing with traffic on an ordinary bike but I don't enjoy it; this takes away some of the stress.

What disappoints me about my pedelec is that as you'd expect it's pretty horrible to ride unpowered, though I frequently ride above the 15mph cut-off, especially with a tailwind (the motor goes into freewheel when it's unpowered, so I always know if it's working). The ideal compromise for me would be a lighter ebike with a smaller battery, but one that's rideable unassisted - but that's not where the market's going, as it chases ever-longer range.

As for fitness; I would place the pedelec as about equivalent to a brisk walk. Good for health but it won't keep the weight off. However, I do find that when I ride my unpowered bike I can manage fine, so the pedelec seems to maintain a base fitness level.

Will unpowered bikes disappear? I doubt it, there's still nothing like the feeling of working muscles and for sport/leisure of course the bicycle will continue.
As for pedelecs driving growth in cycling, there we hit on the same old obstacles:
- At £2000 for a good quality pedelec you're in reliable used car territory - and most people will still want a car as well
- I still have to repair punctures at the side of the road, even with marathon plus.
- I still get wet.
- Drivers still treat me as an inconvenience.
- Road conditions and cycling infrastructure continue to combine to make cycling unattractive for most.

I will one day replace this front hub motored bike with one a bit less obviously 'pedelec' (looking at the Scott E-Sub Speed); then I might be sneered at a bit less often by the same 'proper' cyclists who wish me a cheery good morning when I'm on my drop-bar tourer.

[samsbike]

I finally test rode an electric bike yesterday and it was great. As long as you are pedaling you get this relentless push which means you are propelled forward. This is classic picture postcard of easy cycling.

I think that for stop start commuting it would be great. I can see where I would do one day no assisted cycling and another assisted cycling especially in winter.

Not sure how I will convert my mtb though