Predict the Election Results

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RogerThat
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Re: Predict the Election Results

Post by RogerThat »

I think the SNP will play the long game. They're looking ten years down the road to independence. But in the short term I think they'll kick labour, and the Westminster Social Club, black and blue.

Which can only be a good thing for democracy. Ukip are forecast to get <3 seats so they're pretty much a busted flush. I predict no one will scarce be even able to remember what they 'stood' for or the name Farage in 5 years time.

A good politician always plays the long game well.
reohn2
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Re: Predict the Election Results

Post by reohn2 »

Tangled Metal wrote:There is a lot of carp about past activities of Cameron, about how the Tories are all about their Bullingden cronies and the wealthy. Interesting that when you think Blair and Brown made a really big thing on cozying up to big business in their heyday of the New Labour project. So why don't you lefties never mention that? How Miliband and Balls were part of Brown's inner circle in those days. However Miliband has also got in tight with the unions to become leader. Quite the devious one methinks. Let's not even mention that special adviser who had to resign to save Labour's blushes after some story of nasty spin against Cameron.

I only say these things because it is my firm belief that both Labour and conservatives are equally nasty, equally out for themselves and equally working for the benefit of those whose support they have/want/need rather than the benefit of the country or constituency.


As a 'lefty' I wouldn't describe 'New'Labour as left wing.
Nor did I support the previous 'New' Labour government past their first term.
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Bicycler
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Re: Predict the Election Results

Post by Bicycler »

Perhaps Thatcher's legacy. No-one is properly left wing any more because it makes you unelectable. The system promotes opposition so there's an incentive to play up the differences but In the grand scheme of things our big 3 are really fairly similar. It's really only party loyalty and a diet of party rhetoric that can have people content with one and disgusted with another. A preference for one over the other makes sense but hating the red or blue in the opposite corner is just silly
Last edited by Bicycler on 29 Apr 2015, 12:54pm, edited 1 time in total.
Mark1978
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Re: Predict the Election Results

Post by Mark1978 »

RogerThat wrote:I think the SNP will play the long game. They're looking ten years down the road to independence. But in the short term I think they'll kick labour, and the Westminster Social Club, black and blue.

Which can only be a good thing for democracy. Ukip are forecast to get <3 seats so they're pretty much a busted flush. I predict no one will scarce be even able to remember what they 'stood' for or the name Farage in 5 years time.

A good politician always plays the long game well.


The established parties have been getting a kicking and I think you're right that they're going to get nothing but kickings over the next five years.

If the LibDems have done anything for us they've shown that a vote for a party other than the main two isn't necessarily wasted, that a small party can have a say in government.

Personally I wish there would be a change in the voting system to a more proportional system, then multi-party politics would be a permanent feature, which I think would be a healthy thing both for the country and for political engagement overall.
reohn2
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Re: Predict the Election Results

Post by reohn2 »

Bicycler wrote:Perhaps Thatcher's legacy. No-one is properly left wing any more because it makes you unelectable. The system promotes opposition so there's an incentive to play up the differences but In the grand scheme of things our big 3 are really fairly similar. It's really only party loyalty and a diet of party rhetoric that can have people content with one and disgusted with another. A preference for one over the other makes sense but the red or blue in the opposite corner is just silly


I agree,and the yellow/orange in the middle refereeing the 'fight' is even sillier as we've witnessed these last five years :?
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Tangled Metal
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Re: Predict the Election Results

Post by Tangled Metal »

reohn2 wrote:As a 'lefty' I wouldn't describe 'New'Labour as left wing.
Nor did I support the previous 'New' Labour government past their first term.


I would agree with your first comment which was why I felt the first term of Blair was a welcome event (not saying I voted for them or not). I guess that is why they were electable and did so well in '97. They took the centre ground, albeit from the left side. I think part of the issue with Tories is they keep leaving the centre ground (from the right side) leaving Labour to claim it and get elected.

As I said above the first term of Blair was welcome but I did not believe in the New Labour after that term and wanted them out. Blair was a great PR man IMHO and would have made a killing in the old wild west as a snake oil salesman. I would say that had I voted for him in '97 I would have felt let down at the next GE and looked elsewhere too.
Mark1978
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Re: Predict the Election Results

Post by Mark1978 »

Tangled Metal wrote:I would agree with your first comment which was why I felt the first term of Blair was a welcome event (not saying I voted for them or not). I guess that is why they were electable and did so well in '97. They took the centre ground, albeit from the left side. I think part of the issue with Tories is they keep leaving the centre ground (from the right side) leaving Labour to claim it and get elected.


The Tories always do that, it's something they can be completely relied upon. Someone (like Cameron) drags them to the centre, gets them (almost) electable. Then as soon as they hit a bit of trouble they get dragged off to the right again, and this becomes a vicious circle as it then puts them into more trouble so they go even further right.

As I said above the first term of Blair was welcome but I did not believe in the New Labour after that term and wanted them out. Blair was a great PR man IMHO and would have made a killing in the old wild west as a snake oil salesman. I would say that had I voted for him in '97 I would have felt let down at the next GE and looked elsewhere too.


Pretty much agreed. I think everyone will say it's the war in Iraq where the wheels came off. Blair didn't care after that. At the time Brown was hailed as one of the best chancellors we've ever had, history shows him to be one of the worst.
The Mechanic
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Re: Predict the Election Results

Post by The Mechanic »

Reading these posts I have a dilema. Either, some of the people on here are so far left as to think Joseph Stalin was right wing. Or, as I suspect, I am living in a completely different country from most of the posters. Whatever you think about the Tories, you have to admit that the economy is now in a much better state than it was when the Tories inherited it from the last Labour government. OK, you may not be entirely in agreement with the methodology but the result is positive by any standards. If you don't think a country need a strong economy, just look at Greece.

Furthermore, having lived through the referendum debacle last year, I am not sure how a political party that tried its best to break up the United Kingdom can now state that it will be good for the UK to have an increased presence at Westminster and still keep a straight face. But them (almost but never quite made it)King Alex never did have a straight face.
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Psamathe
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Re: Predict the Election Results

Post by Psamathe »

The Mechanic wrote:... Whatever you think about the Tories, you have to admit that the economy is now in a much better state than it was when the Tories inherited it from the last Labour government. OK, you may not be entirely in agreement with the methodology but the result is positive by any standards. ...

But is this "because of the Conservatives" or "despite the Conservatives". Many think that our recovery has been hindered by conservative economic policy and that with better policies we could be a lot further ahead in the recovery.

And you have to remember, when the Conservatives talk about "stick with their plan" they don't mention which of their plans we are to stick with. Despite their refusal to have a Plan B, we have actually been though several different Conservative economic plans over the last 5 years. They've kept the change of plan as quiet as possible (bad PR), but remember the original plan - to clear the deficit by the end of their 5 year term. No big announcements when we switched to Plan B - to not clear the deficit by the end of their 5 year term., etc.

Ian
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Re: Predict the Election Results

Post by Vorpal »

Psamathe wrote:And you have to remember, when the Conservatives talk about "stick with their plan" they don't mention which of their plans we are to stick with. Despite their refusal to have a Plan B, we have actually been though several different Conservative economic plans over the last 5 years. They've kept the change of plan as quiet as possible (bad PR), but remember the original plan - to clear the deficit by the end of their 5 year term. No big announcements when we switched to Plan B - to not clear the deficit by the end of their 5 year term., etc.

Ian

Not only have they not cleared the deficit, but the debt / GDP ration has increased just as much in the recovery under the conservatives as it did during the crisis under Labour. Unemployment may have improved, but real wages have not. And despite little change in the UK economic competitiveness index, it is criticised for a weak macroeconomic environment, which is impacted by government debt.

http://www.weforum.org/reports/global-c ... -2014-2015

Economic recoveries that occur in an environment of austerity are unbalanced, and I think that the recovery in the UK exhibits this, at least in part.

http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/13056 ... more-13056

I don't think, though, that our current measures of economic health are sustainable. They depend on production, consumer spending, and use of natural resources. These are things that we need to reduce and regulate, if we want to be able to leave anything for future generations.

I can't see either Labour or the Tories addressing this problem. This kind of summarises what I'm talking about.... http://www.theguardian.com/sustainable- ... nic-system

p.s. this is a cycling forum; one can hardly expect a hotbed of conservative extremism ;)
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al_yrpal
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Re: Predict the Election Results

Post by al_yrpal »

The Mechanic wrote:Reading these posts I have a dilema. Either, some of the people on here are so far left as to think Joseph Stalin was right wing. Or, as I suspect, I am living in a completely different country from most of the posters. Whatever you think about the Tories, you have to admit that the economy is now in a much better state than it was when the Tories inherited it from the last Labour government. OK, you may not be entirely in agreement with the methodology but the result is positive by any standards. If you don't think a country need a strong economy, just look at Greece.

Furthermore, having lived through the referendum debacle last year, I am not sure how a political party that tried its best to break up the United Kingdom can now state that it will be good for the UK to have an increased presence at Westminster and still keep a straight face. But them (almost but never quite made it)King Alex never did have a straight face.


Salmond is going to love disrupting parliament probably in the hope that he can get another referendum to get him and Scottish MPs out of Englands hair. I expect there will then be a stampede south to escape the resulting socialist state, at least thats what all my pals up there are saying.

Al
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Paulatic
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Re: Predict the Election Results

Post by Paulatic »

The Mechanic wrote: .

Furthermore, having lived through the referendum debacle last year, I am not sure how a political party that tried its best to break up the United Kingdom can now state that it will be good for the UK to have an increased presence at Westminster and still keep a straight face. But them (almost but never quite made it)King Alex never did have a straight face.


Or maybe you could say,
"Furthermore, having lived through the referendum debacle last year, I am not sure how a political party which joined with the other main parties in campaign fear can now look Scotland in the eye and say we will look after your interests. Especially as all seem to display signs of welching on any desperate last minute offerings they came out with last year.

This election is about voting for someone to look after your interests. It's not about voting for independence again as once more campaign fear wish you to believe. For this coming election I trust no one other than the SNP to do that for me. As we are still in the UK I can't see how that cannot be good for the UK.
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Psamathe
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Re: Predict the Election Results

Post by Psamathe »

Vorpal wrote:
Psamathe wrote:And you have to remember, when the Conservatives talk about "stick with their plan" they don't mention which of their plans we are to stick with. Despite their refusal to have a Plan B, we have actually been though several different Conservative economic plans over the last 5 years. They've kept the change of plan as quiet as possible (bad PR), but remember the original plan - to clear the deficit by the end of their 5 year term. No big announcements when we switched to Plan B - to not clear the deficit by the end of their 5 year term., etc.

Ian

Not only have they not cleared the deficit, but the debt / GDP ration has increased just as much in the recovery under the conservatives as it did during the crisis under Labour. Unemployment may have improved, but real wages have not. And despite little change in the UK economic competitiveness index, it is criticised for a weak macroeconomic environment, which is impacted by government debt.

http://www.weforum.org/reports/global-c ... -2014-2015

Economic recoveries that occur in an environment of austerity are unbalanced, and I think that the recovery in the UK exhibits this, at least in part.

http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/13056 ... more-13056

...

(My bold and italics)
Part of the Conservative plan was to rebalance the economy (move to higher manufacturing and lower dependence of the service sector). If you look at the latest growth figures both construction and manufacturing are in decline (construction is technically now in recession!). And I get confused when Cameron et al talk about their plan working when significant parts of it are actually getting worse !! So their claims about their plan working seem to refer to some un-identified plan and only to those parts of that plan that are working - which seems somewhat selective to me.

Ian
blackbike
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Re: Predict the Election Results

Post by blackbike »

Psamathe wrote:
Part of the Conservative plan was to rebalance the economy (move to higher manufacturing and lower dependence of the service sector). If you look at the latest growth figures both construction and manufacturing are in decline (construction is technically now in recession!). And I get confused when Cameron et al talk about their plan working when significant parts of it are actually getting worse !! So their claims about their plan working seem to refer to some un-identified plan and only to those parts of that plan that are working - which seems somewhat selective to me.

Ian


I agree.

The Tories haven't a clue how to manage or rebalance the economy. Their so-called recovery is based on the creation of lots of insecure poverty wage jobs, ruthless and cruel benefit cuts and desperate price cuts by companies. People know a real recovery when they see it, and this isn't a real recovery.

Meanwhile they stick doggedly to the old-fashioned message that if you work hard at school and have a good work ethic you'll get on in life in a decent, secure job. Many fewer people believe this to be nearly as true as it once was in this modern, globalised world.

In today's insecure economy many people know they are just a job loss or other unfortunate event away from being treated as a worthless parasite by a Tory government.

That's why the Tories are struggling to attract votes.
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al_yrpal
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Re: Predict the Election Results

Post by al_yrpal »

I would be very interested to learn how Labour are going to produce all these well paid worthwhile jobs rather than the Tory burger flipping ones? They dont seem to have any different policies to the Tories? Can someone please enlighten me?

Al
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