Predict the Election Results

[reohn2]

Perhaps, maybe that's the mistake the Lib Dems made? Going into a proper coalition instead of case by case support. Being inside the government means you have to take the blame as well as the credit.

You mean getting into bed naked with the devil,in a shop window for all the world to see.
In the belief they could moderate evil by befriending and giving themselves to evil.

[Psamathe]

I stand ready to be proven very wrong in 2020, but I wonder if the SNP surge is just that, a surge after the near euphoria of the referendum. They've got 5 long years to cool down and probably deal with the chilling effects of being in government, and probably an unstable government at that. We may see a very different situation come the next election and they may well, if they are not careful, end up the way of the Liberal Democrats.

And no; I can't see another IndyRef in the next parliament either, as the result would no doubt be the same.

If they hold sway in the commons,I can only see them becoming stronger.

Perhaps, maybe that's the mistake the Lib Dems made? Going into a proper coalition instead of case by case support. Being inside the government means you have to take the blame as well as the credit.

I think the biggest mistake the Lib Dems made (other than the obvious lies about tuition fees, etc.) was, once they decided the Conservatives were "their type of people", to make their ministerial presence all over government. All they got was mainly junior ministers who basically had to do what their Conservative masters told them to do. Thus they can take no real credit for anything because, even if it was their idea, the actually legislation/changes came through their conservative masters. They would have been far better to completely take over a few departments (i.e. no Conservative junior ministers there). That way they would have been able to clearly demonstrate the difference they had made. They'd still have been in Cabinet, still able to block and/or steer the Conservatives (at least to the same extent which mainly seems to have been "yes sir").

Ian

[al_yrpal]

Perhaps its the sort of friends I have but all the people I know in Scotland are totally against the SNP. They think that they are so anti enterprise and too pro the old style trade union beer and sandwiches where we all in ruled by Union barons and dinasoars. Several of them were ready to leave if Scotland became independent. Perhaps the new SNP MPs wont be from the same mould?

Labours policies seem to be based on the politics of envy to me whilst the Tories clearly haven't tackled the excesses of naked capitalism as vigorously as they have tackled the many scroungers that have got away with living off the rest of us for years. But then again the past Labour governments never tackled these things anyway.

Interesting times...

Al

[reohn2]

Al
You are David Cameron aren't you,c'mon own up

[horizon]

Nate Silver nailed it.
Al

http://politicalscrapbook.net/2012/11/n ... ion-wrong/

[al_yrpal]

Al
You are David Cameron aren't you,c'mon own up

HaHa, very funny. I am a working class 'lad' my old Dad a cockney engine driver was there at the formation of the labour party. My whole family including my spouse have working class roots. I live in the promised land but I lived in S Wales for 6 years and as Chief Engineer of a company making mining equipment I have been down dozens of pits and spent a lot of time with miners. I went to a Grammar School which gave me opportunity. I worked as a wage slave for 30 years and then rowed my own boat with my own business for 15. So My opinions have been formed by this wide spectrum of experiences. I am aware that there are many here who support a socialist agenda but I have experienced a wide spectrum of opinions and circumstances too. I am not DC (sounds too much like an Estate Agent) but I dont want to return to Islington Socialism policies which left millions dead, my pension reduced by 25% and made scrounging a national pastime. What worries me is that whoever is running the country is in thrall to idiot fringe parties who in some cases want to destroy the country. For me the Tories are the least worse option. And.. Boris was my MP, he was excellent. Despite his voice, background and dishevelled appearance he is a canny person and IMO would make an inspiring leader who would lead a drive to revive the fortunes of the whole country to emulate the economic success currently enjoyed by London and the South East.

Al

[Tangled Metal]

That is the real issue, the main two parties will be held to ransom by the minor parties in any coalition discussions. A taste of that happened last time but the mood was less for another spell under Brown so I guess LD had no choice really but going with the Tories (the biggest party in Westminster in 2010). This time the two main parties are so close, the Tories have not endeared themselves to people because they have made the hard decisions but the rich seem to get away with a lot (most of it was the after affects of week regulation that have come out since).

Add to that the feeling it is time to turn left in the UK political scene. We are more likely to see a left of centre or just plain left government this time around as a direct counter to austerity. This however relies on SNP, Greens, LD (who are itching to turn left I think). Heck! You even have Tories in N Ireland (DUP) even offering mood music to labour when they say they are open to working with any party.

All this is adding up to Labour and a bunch of leftist loonies in minority parties who are going to call the shots at first. As opposed to the Tories with a bunch of rightist loonies in their own party trying hard to undermine their leadership in favour of some future rightwing bright young thing to get their juices flowing. Whichever way you look at it we have a load of rubbish running the country. People who are not worth the air they breath. Sorry if that is harsh but I with there was a NOTA or RON option here.

[Mick F]

Don't vote for them, it only encourages them.

None of the Above would get my vote, and I'm sure the majority of voters would do the same. If that happened, the non-voted-for candidates would lose their deposits and not be allowed to stand for a re-run election.

[Psamathe]

That is the real issue, the main two parties will be held to ransom by the minor parties in any coalition discussions. A taste of that happened last time but the mood was less for another spell under Brown so I guess LD had no choice really but going with the Tories (the biggest party in Westminster in 2010)....

Last election, Gordon Brown was always going to step down whatever happened. He had failed to win, LD's explicitly stated they would not work with Gordon Brown and he had been told that - hence he (and everybody else) knew he was out. Given that the LDs had a choice. Personally I think Labour's general stance is closer to that of the LDs than the Conservatives were/are. But Clegg is different. Clegg is far more of a Conservative so he was always going to drag the LDs to the Conservatives (other sensor LDs would go along with anything once they realised they might get a ministerial position).

I have a suspicion that Clegg is starting to appreciate the damage he has done to the LDs and is changing his stance on coalition. A week or so ago there were "no red lines" and now he is starting to bring in constraints and red lines. I think he has realised he will have too small a presence to be a "king maker" as it looks like the SNP will be the deciding factor (i.e. only they can add enough numbers to give anybody a majority). So Clegg is starting to contrive conditions so nobody will meet his criteria so he can then say "we were not happy with them so would not form a coalition" when in practice he probably wont have the numbers to make anybody want to bother discussing anything with him.

Ian

[Psamathe]

None of the Above would get my vote, and I'm sure the majority of voters would do the same. If that happened, the non-voted-for candidates would lose their deposits and not be allowed to stand for a re-run election.

I agree. "None of the above" should appear on the ballot paper and if "None of the above" wins then the election is re-run, all previous candidates (who lost to "None of the above" barred from standing). And it goes on and on until somebody can beat "None of the above".

A serious idea as, although unlikely that "None of the above" would actually ever win, it would give the electorate the option to have their displeasure reflected in the results. And if "None of the above" ever did win it would be a very sad reflection on the candidates standing.

Ian

[fluffybunnyuk]

fundamentally its still a choice between roundheads(liberals), cavaliers(tories), and the peasants(labour). 350 years on nothings changed.
I wonder whos going to be the politician who writes themselves into history (by book, and by seats!) by proposing the Proportional representation bill....

mmm turkeys voting for christmas...

[Mark1978]

One of the most interesting things for me is who will the party leaders be when all this has shaken out?

Conservative - If they aren't in government Cameron is certain to go, perhaps not immediately but by the end of the year. Boris Johnson certain to be his replacement.
Labour - Again if they aren't in government Milliband is toast, the replacement is less obvious, probably not his brother.
Lib Dem - Clegg might be able to stay if the results are better than expected, or they are able to reach a deal with the Tories or Labour. Otherwise he's toast.
UKIP - Farage stays no matter what
SNP - Sturgeon stays no matter what
Plaid - No idea
Greens - Bennet is useless anyway!

[fluffybunnyuk]

UKIP - Farage stays no matter what.

i think farage is standing down when he fails to win.

EDIT : i mean if he fails..... hahahaha

[reohn2]

HaHa, very funny. I am a working class 'lad' my old Dad a cockney engine driver was there at the formation of the labour party. My whole family including my spouse have working class roots. I live in the promised land but I lived in S Wales for 6 years and as Chief Engineer of a company making mining equipment I have been down dozens of pits and spent a lot of time with miners. I went to a Grammar School which gave me opportunity. I worked as a wage slave for 30 years and then rowed my own boat with my own business for 15. So My opinions have been formed by this wide spectrum of experiences. I am aware that there are many here who support a socialist agenda but I have experienced a wide spectrum of opinions and circumstances too. I am not DC (sounds too much like an Estate Agent) but I dont want to return to Islington Socialism policies which left millions dead, my pension reduced by 25% and made scrounging a national pastime. What worries me is that whoever is running the country is in thrall to idiot fringe parties who in some cases want to destroy the country. For me the Tories are the least worse option. And.. Boris was my MP, he was excellent. Despite his voice, background and dishevelled appearance he is a canny person and IMO would make an inspiring leader who would lead a drive to revive the fortunes of the whole country to emulate the economic success currently enjoyed by London and the South East.

Al

Thanks for your CV,we'll give you a call should a position come open
Sixteen years a miner,'rowed my own boat' for 25years,I wouldn't trust any of them as far as I could throw them,but I'm positively against unbridled capitalism,and being ruled by the Eton mess.

What really amazes me is rightwing followers automatically thinking it has to be either rampant capitalism or psuedo communism.
It doesn't,and it'll be the minor parties who'll rein in the extremes of either.
We've just experienced five years bad government,which has seen the rich get richer and the poor get stamped on or treading water to make ends meet,the usual Tory capitalism that sees ordinary working people frightened of loosing what little they have.Whilst the constant Tory mantra of we can't afford the pay more as it'll bankrupt the country,all the time the fat cats get fatter off the backs of the poor.

[Ben@Forest]

One of the most interesting things for me is who will the party leaders be when all this has shaken out?

Labour - Again if they aren't in government Milliband is toast, the replacement is less obvious, probably not his brother.

Certainly not his brother - he's in New York running an international relief charity. I think he had to commit to at least five years (and he didn't start at the charity till 2013)

SNP - Sturgeon stays no matter what

Sturgeon isn't standing for election - she's the First Minister for Scotland. One of the oddities of this campaign is that the leader of the SNP in Westminster - Angus Robertson - has not represented his party at the leader debates.