Europe 2021

[willem jongman]

I think the BMJ article I linked to earlier probably has the best data, including age standardised ones. The numbers from Eastern Europe in particular are depressing. But the other numbers also diverge remarkably.

[al_yrpal]

Apart from anything else my Bulgarian and Romanian chaity contacts tel me that there is massive jab resistance in these countries . Very difficult for them because it makes it virtually impossible to visit and do their good work.

Al

[ossie]

I think the BMJ article I linked to earlier probably has the best data, including age standardised ones. The numbers from Eastern Europe in particular are depressing. But the other numbers also diverge remarkably.

Regards your link, the header is " Excess deaths associated with covid-19 pandemic in 2020" ....my link is data up until 13th July 2021 unless I'm missing something (I may well be) correct me if I'm wrong (long ride today). As you say Eastern Europe is extremely depressing.

[willem jongman]

@ Al Sadly this is only too true and those two are not the only ones in Eastern Europe. They all received doses from the EU allocation system like the other countries and in more or less the same proportion (that was the rationale of the system) but they are not using all of them, and particularly not the AZ ones, but also the Biontech/Pfizer ones. Depressing data on the ECDC website. Romania even sold many to Denmark because otherwise they would have been wasted. I bet many local experts must have had tears in their eyes.

[willem jongman]

@Ossie I agree that that article only covers 2020 but the data are better curated and made comparable. It is just a professional preference on my part to have cleaner data, but it is unlikely to make that much difference.

[ossie]

@Ossie I agree that that article only covers 2020 but the data are better curated and made comparable. It is just a professional preference on my part to have cleaner data, but it is unlikely to make that much difference.

No worries. Its a shame they don't do a rolling update and it was a pain to copy and paste the way I did, as you say the BMJ charts are probably more dynamic in that regard.

This is all a learning experience for me. I spend most of my time on the touring forum (usually discussing or planning touring) so its painting a picture of Europe for when we can eventually get on the road again ( even though its kind of straying off topic on occasion ).

[willem jongman]

I remain optimistic, but not all experts agree. I think vaccines have already been and even more will be the game changer if we have the courage to give freedom to those who are vaccinated and restrict those who refuse vaccination. The free riders should experience that there will be no free ride. But we can only do that when everyone has had a chance. So in that respect I think Draghi's decison to mandate the EU covid app for Italy but only demand one dose is absolutely brilliant as it provides the perfect carrot: it only takes two weeks and you will be allowed all that you want. Once everybody has taken up the offer he will I am sure announce by mid or late August that soon two doses will required.
In the meantime I think we have to remain cautious and a total lifting of restrictions as we did a few weeks ago in the Netherlands and as is now being done in the UK is reckless and unnecessary. I notice that in my admittedly well educated and well heeled part of town more and more people are voluntarily wearing facemasks again in the supermarket. It does not take Draconian measures to keep infections low once almost everyone has been vaccinated.
As for cycle tours I am still pinning my hopes on a tour in Germany but everything is fluid - isn't that one of the attractions of cycle touring?

[scragend]

I've been watching this thread with interest (and occasionally even sticking my head above the parapet on it) for months now. I had a tour planned from Hoek van Holland up to Leeuwarden and back in the middle of August which I was really hoping to be able to take. Looking unlikely now.

As a contingency, when France opened up to British travellers, I planned a different tour in Brittany & Normandy. Then the amber plus thing happened...

Ironically France will let me go there but the UK won't let me return (without quarantine), while for the Netherlands it's the other way round.

I'm now up to what I think is Plan E, and it involves staying in England. I already had my trains booked to London and back, so I'm sticking with those and doing a smaller tour in the south of England in between. I was looking forward to my first overseas tour but with three weeks to go it does seem now like it's not to be.

I still have the bookings for the Dutch trip though - will leave it till the last possible moment to cancel

[willem jongman]

I don't know but are we not letting the fully vaccinated into the Netherlands? Is the UK still on tbe list of so badly infected countries that even the vaccinated are not allowed in? Or is the proof of that vaccination the problem? This of course assumes that you are or will be fully vaccinated. I must admit I do not remember seeing a single UK tourist this year.

[ossie]

As for cycle tours I am still pinning my hopes on a tour in Germany but everything is fluid - isn't that one of the attractions of cycle touring?

Indeed. My last tour was part of the Lippe River ( Römerroute and the Teutoburg Forest) in an effort to think I'd somehow cycled through the area of that epic battle, only to learn they've located something north of Osnabruck? I'm guessing you might have a passing Interest in the subject

[willem jongman]

Kalkriese it is for the real thing. I never visited but in tbe summer of 2019 I did visit another site of an epic Roman defeat, at Lake Trasumeno. Again a major defeat by the arrogance and stupidity of an amateur Roman general.

[scragend]

I don't know but are we not letting the fully vaccinated into the Netherlands? Is the UK still on tbe list of so badly infected countries that even the vaccinated are not allowed in? Or is the proof of that vaccination the problem? This of course assumes that you are or will be fully vaccinated. I must admit I do not remember seeing a single UK tourist this year.

As I understand it, the UK is on the list of "very high risk countries with a variant of concern". We can come in, but still need to quarantine even though we have been fully vaccinated (I have been) and have had a negative test before departure.

[willem jongman]

I had a look and it seems you are right: pcr test before departure, quarantine and then another pcr test during quarantine. So effectively a ban.
The reasons are three fold:
1 high infection rate
2 prominence of the delta variant
3 the UK is outside the EU. Within the EU full vaccination would be enough, as it will be for me for travel to e.g. Germany.

[willem jongman]

The Netherlands have now quite rightly been added to the German list of high risk countries. Fully vaccinated people from the Netherlands can still travel to Germany unimpeded (but they have to submit a digital form before travel). Those who are not yet fully vaccinated will have to have a test beforehand, quarantine etc. In effect: they cannot realistically come.
The Dutch government for its part have made outgoing travel to EU countries easier and lifted restrictions. However, all incoming travellers now have to have be fully vaccinated, or have a valid recent test. There will be mobile teams to check this for people travelling by car, and fines for those who try to sneak in without. Even if fully vaccinated people are strongly advised to have a test after their return as well.

Dutch infection numbers continue to come down and are now about a third of what they were not long ago. Predictably hospital admissions are still going up, but not to hard to handle levels.
The explanation would seem to be two fold: first, the ongoing vaccination of the younger age groups, who were not yet vaccinated when this surge began. Second, a few restrictions on extremely dangerous settings such as disco's, indoor pubs, and festivals. None of this is particularly cumbersone, of course, but it is a warning sign that keeping infections relatively low remains a balancing act.
The Dutch vaccination rate is now about 85% first doses for the 18+. The challenge remains to also get the vaccination rate up among the 12-34 year olds from the current level of about 60% first doses for the 18-34 year olds. Most vaccination is now with second doses for the 18+ (currently more than 60% of 18+ have had a second dose), and first doses for the 12-17 olds. For the 12-17 year olds, the interval has been shortened and the first among them will soon begin to get second doses to ensure that all of them can be fully vaccinated by late August, when schools are opening again. Also, with most of the vaccination done, the first large vaccination sites are being closed.
With a growing surplus of doses, more doses will be donated to other countries. At the moment we are talking about 3 million that are currently being donated abroad, but the planning is for 20 million in 2021.

[MrsHJ]

That sounds pretty sensible. Unfortunately we are here (see quote) vis a vis 12-17 year olds. Not sure why there’s a sociologist on what I thought was a medical committee but the COVID cases are now very substantially in the teens and young twenties so difficult to see it coming properly under control without vaccinating 12-17 year olds.

“Prof Robert Dingwall, a sociologist on the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation, has meanwhile said that “it is not immoral to think that [children] may be better protected by natural immunity generated through infection than by asking them to take the possible risk of a vaccine”.