Corona virus - impact on European tours in next 3 months?

[simonhill]

Even if YOU think the virus isn't a major concern, you could still be affected by:
- cancelled flights
- towns closed to access
- interesting tourist sites (and museums) closed
- caught up in a quarantine zone for a fortnight.

Add those up and you could have a pretty crappy holiday. And no insurance payout.

I totally agree. This thread was raised to talk about the impact on European tours. It is in danger of being hijacked by medical experts (aka quacks) debating the disease. Let's keep it to the effects that this (real or perceived) problem will have on our travel plans.

[Psamathe]

Even if YOU think the virus isn't a major concern, you could still be affected by:
- cancelled flights
- towns closed to access
- interesting tourist sites (and museums) closed
- caught up in a quarantine zone for a fortnight.

Add those up and you could have a pretty crappy holiday. And no insurance payout.

I totally agree. This thread was raised to talk about the impact on European tours. It is in danger of being hijacked by medical experts (aka quacks) debating the disease. Let's keep it to the effects that this (real or perceived) problem will have on our travel plans.

I don't see how anybody here could make useful predictions about any impact on European travel in 3 months - not when the WHO with plenty of people who do nothing other than model disease spread, experts in all sorts of relevant stuff and even they can't predict what will happen next week.

Ignoring the OTT over-reaction that I think has happened on a (very) few occasions, steps taken will always be a balance between the interests of disease prevention and economic business/practicalities. No point it locking everybody in their homes/hotels when there is no food available within 20 miles and those locked-in people are starving.

At the moment (in Europe) it's pretty easy to keep a load of tourists in a hotel or to tell people to "self-isolate" (I was told to self-isolate on Monday - which held for a few hours). But once the disease has spread across e.g. UK & Europe, not a lot of point in such lock-downs as pretty well everybody will already have been well exposed as well as similar situations across Europe. Local can work but once more widespread I suspect official actions will be more along the flu response.

Also, those clinical/disease experts are now thinking it is likely that the disease becomes infectious before the sufferer starts showing any symptoms - which means the disease has often already moved further afield before any lock-down starts.

There are so many currently unknown factors e.g. what is the infection rate, what is the viral load needed for infection, are 99% of those without symptoms just infected and asymptomatic (and self cure in days)?

Ian

[simonhill]

The post is the NEXT 3 months, which starts today.

Also Easter is only 6 weeks away.

I suspect that some airlines are already looking at cancelling and consolidating some services to Italy.

A couple of weeks ago I saw an piece about the Bicester shopping place. It was virtually empty due to lack of Chinese tourists. This was a direct result of the coronavirus. This obviously isn't of much interest to touring cyclists to Europe, but it shows that the effects are already with us. Wedding out how cycle touring will be effected is what I thought this thread was about.

[Psamathe]

....
A couple of weeks ago I saw an piece about the Bicester shopping place. It was virtually empty due to lack of Chinese tourists. This was a direct result of the coronavirus. This obviously isn't of much interest to touring cyclists to Europe, but it shows that the effects are already with us. Wedding out how cycle touring will be effected is what I thought this thread was about.

I'd be uncertain about the lack of Chinese tourists in Bicester being due to Coronavirus - when I was recently in SEA during the spread there were still loads of Chinese tourists everywhere (and still arriving). It didn't impact me but when I considered extending stay in one city I could not because of Chinese tourist arrival (glad I didn't as I actually had plenty of time there and glad not to have had the extra day). In other places you could see the bus loads of Chinese tourists but I tended to be visiting slightly different places. But then I only have a "snapshot" of where I was when I was there and no comparison as to how it was e.g. same time last year.

Last time I went to the Bicester place (over a year ago) it was quiet and no Chinese tourists. I always get naturally suspicious when press leap to conclusions without evidence, a bit like they notice Bicester shopping place is a bit empty and grab at a prominent story to explain the cause (ignoring our miserable winder weather or the time of year (Feb is not the best time of year to visit the UK) other possibilities). How did the reporting press know the lack of Chinese tourists was due to Coronavirus? Did they give any evidence?

Ian

[100%JR]

Do tourists flock from China to a retail outlet in Bicester
I’ve seen the article and there’s no evidence other than hearsay to back it up.
Probably the store owners putting two and two together and getting five.We as a nation are quite good at that....

[mattheus]

Do tourists flock from China to a retail outlet in Bicester

Possibly so. I was in Oxford on a mid-Jan evening, and there were a lot around then, considering the season.

From 2018:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-o ... e-42015714

With so many other sights to see in Britain, the fascination with a man-made, manicured shopping centre on the outskirts of Bicester is somewhat baffling to those closer to home.
But for Chinese visitors to the UK - more than half of whom shop at Bicester Village, according to the outlet - a walk through its Scandi-inspired high streets is an unmissable part of the trip.
Tracey Xiau, a student at Birmingham University, has stopped off on her way to London.
It's her second visit to the site, which has savings on high-end brands such as Burberry, Gucci and Armani.
Through the help of a translator, she explains "it is very famous for Chinese people" - especially with Chinese women who like shopping.
"The discounts are very nice and the product has a good brand, that's why I come here," she adds.
…
"We can buy discounted items... [it is] cheaper than high street stores," say Mo Zhou and Leon Yue, a well-dressed couple from Beijing who have already snapped up a pair of designer sunglasses.
For Yining Lu and Huang Xin, they want to take advantage of being able to claim back the 20% VAT available to non-EU visitors.
"The tax is higher in China so we need to buy it in Bicester," says Ms Lu, who has been planning her trip for two months.
Mr Xin wants to "buy, buy, buy, buy".
Asked whether it was cheaper than in China, she replies: "Yes, of course. I want to get tax free."

[simonhill]

I'm not sure when you were in SEA, but I'm here now and all the reports are of a massive slowdown in tourist activity from the Chinese. Remember that it took a few weeks for travel, etc to be curtailed.

It's hard to see a negative, but there are definite signs even to my untrained eye.

Many hotels and restaurants are empty. I've seen parking lots full of buses standing idle and unmanned. Maybe this is normal, but I suspect that they are usually transporting Chinese tour groups.

There have been many posts about the absence of Chinese tourists on forums such as Lonely Planet. A recent news report on Japanese TV showed s virtual shutdown of the companies dealing with Chinese tour groups in Chiang Mai. Etc, etc.

All Chinese and SEA airlines are cutting schedules. Airlines are laying off staff. This isn't hyperbole, it is happening.

I only gave Bicester as an example of how it was already effecting Europe. I have never been there but I just googled "Bicester village Chinese" and got a list of reports of an 85% drop in numbers of Chinese. Maybe they are all wrong.

This thing started slowly in Asia but has now snowballed into a major problem for countries that depend heavily on tourism. Europe isn't in the same boat re the Chinese, but the effects will be felt by many people in Europe, including cycle tourists. As and how is what we should be focusing on.

[Psamathe]

I'm not sure when you were in SEA, but I'm here now and all the reports are of a massive slowdown in tourist activity from the Chinese. Remember that it took a few weeks for travel, etc to be curtailed.

It's hard to see a negative, but there are definite signs even to my untrained eye.

Many hotels and restaurants are empty. I've seen parking lots full of buses standing idle and unmanned. Maybe this is normal, but I suspect that they are usually transporting Chinese tour groups.

There have been many posts about the absence of Chinese tourists on forums such as Lonely Planet. A recent news report on Japanese TV showed s virtual shutdown of the companies dealing with Chinese tour groups in Chiang Mai. Etc, etc.

All Chinese and SEA airlines are cutting schedules. Airlines are laying off staff. This isn't hyperbole, it is happening.

I only gave Bicester as an example of how it was already effecting Europe. I have never been there but I just googled "Bicester village Chinese" and got a list of reports of an 85% drop in numbers of Chinese. Maybe they are all wrong.

This thing started slowly in Asia but has now snowballed into a major problem for countries that depend heavily on tourism. Europe isn't in the same boat re the Chinese, but the effects will be felt by many people in Europe, including cycle tourists. As and how is what we should be focusing on.

For some unknown reason the region seems to be suffering a downturn in tourism generally. Even before the Coronavirus started (in China) I'd expected things to be busy because of "high season" and was shocked by how empty of tourists it seemed and started asking people running restaurants/hostels and they were rather depressed and estimated things were at least 40% down on previous years and had no idea why - and that was across Cambodia, Thailand (Bangkok and north and northeast) and Myanmar (Vietnam seemed a bit busier but harder to say as Saigon is a bit frantic with locals anyway and then I went more off the tourist-trail). In some places I had tuk-tuk drivers offering me rates 30% below the "local rate" before any negotiating (and I'd never try and negotiate below the local rate), saying how they'd had no work for several days and really needed anything.

Some tried to come-up with unfounded explanations. In Myanmar discussing what was going on to the Rohingya with one hotel owner he thought that the reports around the world of what was happening were making potential visitors regard Myanmar as unsafe. (When I travel I don't adhere to the "don't discuss politics" and happily discuss what is going on with locals though don't express personal opinions and tread carefully - at least until I've left the country).

Ian

[100%JR]

Do tourists flock from China to a retail outlet in Bicester

Possibly so. I was in Oxford on a mid-Jan evening, and there were a lot around then, considering the season.

From 2018:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-o ... e-42015714

With so many other sights to see in Britain, the fascination with a man-made, manicured shopping centre on the outskirts of Bicester is somewhat baffling to those closer to home.
But for Chinese visitors to the UK - more than half of whom shop at Bicester Village, according to the outlet - a walk through its Scandi-inspired high streets is an unmissable part of the trip.
Tracey Xiau, a student at Birmingham University, has stopped off on her way to London.
It's her second visit to the site, which has savings on high-end brands such as Burberry, Gucci and Armani.
Through the help of a translator, she explains "it is very famous for Chinese people" - especially with Chinese women who like shopping.
"The discounts are very nice and the product has a good brand, that's why I come here," she adds.
…
"We can buy discounted items... [it is] cheaper than high street stores," say Mo Zhou and Leon Yue, a well-dressed couple from Beijing who have already snapped up a pair of designer sunglasses.
For Yining Lu and Huang Xin, they want to take advantage of being able to claim back the 20% VAT available to non-EU visitors.
"The tax is higher in China so we need to buy it in Bicester," says Ms Lu, who has been planning her trip for two months.
Mr Xin wants to "buy, buy, buy, buy".
Asked whether it was cheaper than in China, she replies: "Yes, of course. I want to get tax free."

Very strange.

[LittleGreyCat]

My suspicion is that if there is a major spread in Europe, it will be from two sources.

Firstly, tourists returning to obscure local places after a holiday at a centre of infection. We are seeing that now with people returning from ski holidays in Italy.

Secondly tourists (Chinese or other) visiting major tourist attractions before they are diagnosed. In this case I would expect Amsterdam, Den Haag, Deflt, Edam and all points around to be at risk, especially tourist hotels.

So the self contained cycle tourist camping in the countryside may well be a long way from most sources of infection.
If you are credit card touring (as we are) the risk may be higher.

I assume there will be a point where, if the spread continues to escalate, hotels and tourist attractions will start going into lock down. Such as in Tenerife at the moment.
At some point after that if the spread continues, everyone will realise that self (or compulsory) isolation isn't going to make much difference any more and the virus will just be treated as another form of flu which is unlikely to be fatal but can be very unpleasant.

Which reminds me that it is a long while since I had flu (sometimes defined as someone putting £100 on the floor by your bed and you just not having the energy to reach for it) but it was very unpleasant and required hunkering down for a few days. Not ideal if you are on holiday.

I wonder how, before testing, "normal" flu can be differentiated from Covid-19?

[MarcusT]

It does not take a thousand people to infect you, but only one
I live in Italy and other than washing my hands more often, life goes on like normal. Not saying COVID-19 is not a risk, but as much as other contagious viruses.
Tv is making this much worse than it is.
By June, the virus should be well spread out around the world, no matter where you are.

[pwa]

I am lucky enough to be basically fit and healthy so if I got this virus tomorrow the chances are that it would be a mild illness lasting a few days. That is the full extent of my worries for myself. But my elderly mother has already been unwell this week (now recovering) due to a bug and she is very frail. We should be concerned for the elderly and those with health conditions that make them vulnerable.

But soon this virus will be reaching nations with very poor living conditions and basic health services. We don't yet know how places such as Bangladesh will fare. On the one hand they don't have our health service and mostly good housing, but they have lots of other things they can die from and this is just one more, so will it make a big difference to death rates?

And economically the UK, like other developed economies, has next to no growth at the moment, so recession is almost inevitable as response to this virus suppresses activity. I suppose it will be less of a worry than recession usually is because we will know that the cause is a blip that will pass, but we could still have done without it.

And finally, this will affect people's ability to travel to some places. It is starting to do that already. In Europe I imagine we will still be able to cross the Channel by ferry, and we will still be able to cycle around more or less as normal. But we may find towns and cities closed off to visitors. Or we may not.

[matt2matt2002]

Yes, the original post was concerning a European tour.
I have a flight booked to Italy for 28th April.
My only concern is for the flight taking off ( both ways ) or not.
I was also considering a 2 month tour in Tajikistan - but that is on hold now.

Is it fare to divide this conversation in to 2 halves?
The health issue and the political?
Both are connected of course. But getting very sick and an airport being closed are different issues.

[Psamathe]

It does not take a thousand people to infect you, but only one
I live in Italy and other than washing my hands more often, life goes on like normal. Not saying COVID-19 is not a risk, but as much as other contagious viruses.
Tv is making this much worse than it is.
By June, the virus should be well spread out around the world, no matter where you are.

I would agree.

In UK reports of schools closing yet Government says there is no need for them to close but over-caution.

Apparently my parents' local GP practice closed for a couple of days this week because somebody came in with a virus (it was not Coronavirus but they still closed the practice and did a "deep clean").

Loads of qualified people on TV saying how useless those face masks are yet panicky people still wearing them everywhere.

We face risks from all sorts of sources every day and I really question as to whether some are treating this disproportionately (and Government seems to be saying the same). And I agree, massive TV coverage is contributing to over-reaction (and city share indices contributing - but they over-react to anything).

(But I have absolutely no idea if it will be contained for spread further)

Ian

[slowster]

As per the following links to the websites of the Association of British Insurers and the British Insurance Brokers' Association, there currently appears to be no difficulty with getting travel insurance for Europe, i.e. no reports of significant increased prices in response to the Corona virus risk nor reports of any insurers introducing an exclusion for losses caused by Corona virus.

https://www.abi.org.uk/products-and-issues/topics-and-issues/coronavirus-qa/

https://www.biba.org.uk/latest-news/travel-insurance-and-coronavirus/

This would appear quite logical: as it stands the number of travellers likely to be affected by Corona virus in Europe is likely to be a relatively small percentage of those people with travel insurance (and the number of insurance claims correspondingly small), since the current strategy of governments and local authorities of imposing lockdowns etc. is only likely to happen (and be effective) while outbreaks are small and limited in number.

If/when outbreaks involve more people and are more numerous, then it looks likely that those imposed isolation/containment strategies will no longer be viable or effective, and as the virus spreads through the general population the strategies will have to change, presumably to a similar response to that used for a lot of other infections, e.g. the sort of general recommendations to follow when there is a general outbreak of flu, measles, norovirus etc. In that scenario, it's unlikely that the UK government will advise against travel to other European countries given that the risk of contracting Corona virus will probably be little different from in the UK, and hence there would similarly not be large numbers of claims for holiday cancellation as a result of following advice from the FO not to travel.

I suspect therefore that more important than having travel insurance because it will cover against cancelling a holiday on FO advice not to travel to that location, will be having travel insurance because it will/may cover against things like:
- having to cancel your holiday because you (or possibly a member of your family) contract Corona virus and are too ill to travel as a result
- increased costs and disruption while on your holiday as result of Corona virus, e.g. if you contract Corona virus and the symptoms are so severe that you need to stay in hospital and/or have to miss your scheduled flight home, or if the hotel/campsite you had booked is closed not because of a government imposed lockdown but simply because too many staff are off ill with Corona virus.

In other words there could be any number of unforeseen consequences of the Corona virus spread, so you should always have travel insurance (and even then it might be that some of the impacts of Corona virus will be so random/not a direct consequence of the outbreak that they might not always be covered by a travel insurance policy, e.g. if half the restaurants in a resort are closed due to staff illness and the remaining restaurants put their prices up to exploit the shortage of supply/increased demand, the increased cost of eating out would almost certainly not be something that insurance would cover).