Marcus Aurelius wrote:Perspective has been well and truly shot out of the window... seasonal influenza kills about 10000 people at this time of year, and that is a well known enemy, with a ( constantly modified ) vaccine available.
Rather more than that.
https://fullfact.org/health/coronavirus ... influenza/ states:
"Public Health England estimates that on average 17,000 people have died from the flu in England annually between 2014/15 and 2018/19. However, the yearly deaths vary widely from a high of 28,330 in 2014/15 to a low of 1,692 in 2018/19. Public Health England does not publish a mortality rate for the flu."
What is interesting is that the average incubation period is seven days, and the average period from first symptoms to death is fourteen. That makes a total of twenty-one. And the death rate started to drop off on Saturday, which is *less* than three weeks since lockdown.
The thing that irritates me most is the risible idea that testing and tracing contacts would have any effect on a disease where incubation is up to fourteen days. I've had it, and could have picked it up on any of several dozen tube journeys (or in Madrid), and could have passed it on to hundreds if not thousands in a dozen or more tube journeys. The people who did not catch it from me were my colleagues and my friends whom I saw - or if they did catch it from me, they had a nice low-viral-load dose that gave them immunity without symptoms - which is a way the population normally develops immunity to seasonal 'flu without actually 'catching' it.
I do not believe this is apocalyptic. I think the jury is going to be out for a long time as to whether the economic consequences - with their knock-on consequences to public health (poverty, delay in appointments, lack of treatment for other diseases, unemployment and mental health consequences including suicide) - will have been worth it (and I suspect it will conclude it was not worth it). This is not to dispute the tragedy of each and every death, but 'flu kills people unexpectedly every winter - this is why the NHS struggles every winter. I'm in my forties and fit with no underlying health issues, yet five years ago had 'flu and ended up in hospital with pneumonia. We're not invincible.
To un-drift there is nothing in the Regulations that prevents touring currently. It is exercise. Exercise is permitted. Staying in hotels is not, so you would have to wild camp. I am seriously contemplating my first ever tour shortly if the weather stays nice and I get the kit together and I can be bothered.
