When will you tour again in the uk?

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Oldjohnw
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Re: When will you tour again in the uk?

Postby Oldjohnw » 13 Apr 2020, 5:53pm

al_yrpal wrote:Why does someone parade their noxious personal thoughts on a public forum? Does it come under the banner of trolling for attention? I'm human too, can anyone blame me for relishing the thought of poetic justice striking a certain someone?

Al


Trolling or genuinely held belief, his was the sort of post that would get someone banned from Facebook, which is in itself difficult. It staggers belief.
John

pwa
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Re: When will you tour again in the uk?

Postby pwa » 13 Apr 2020, 5:59pm

Oldjohnw wrote:
al_yrpal wrote:Why does someone parade their noxious personal thoughts on a public forum? Does it come under the banner of trolling for attention? I'm human too, can anyone blame me for relishing the thought of poetic justice striking a certain someone?

Al


Trolling or genuinely held belief, his was the sort of post that would get someone banned from Facebook, which is in itself difficult. It staggers belief.

Just a wind-up, I suspect. Not worth getting upset over.

PH
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Re: When will you tour again in the uk?

Postby PH » 13 Apr 2020, 6:11pm

Marcus Aurelius wrote:We will only be able to judge exactly how relatively bad ( or not ) this thing is / was when it’s deemed to have fizzled out / with hindsight.

I'd agree with the above, though I find it hard to reconcile with the start of the same post, in which you already seem to have come to a judgment
Perspective has been well and truly shot out of the window

I don't know anymore than anyone else following it on the internet and the newsfeeds, I'm going with the idea that on the balance of probability what the majority of experts from around the world are telling us is likely to be right.
The important thing to bear in mind is consequence. If they've got it wrong those consequences are most likely to be economical and it'll take a decade to recover. If we go along with the just like flu theory and that's wrong the consequence is hundreds of thousands of deaths. I don't find it a hard choice.
We seem to have been unprepared for this because previous similar epidemics have hardly touched us, look at the way some of the more experienced Asian countries reacted and how much better they've done because of it. IMO they had an understanding of the possible consequences that we lacked.

Marcus Aurelius
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Re: When will you tour again in the uk?

Postby Marcus Aurelius » 13 Apr 2020, 6:13pm

PH wrote:
Marcus Aurelius wrote:We will only be able to judge exactly how relatively bad ( or not ) this thing is / was when it’s deemed to have fizzled out / with hindsight.

I'd agree with the above, though I find it hard to reconcile with the start of the same post, in which you already seem to have come to a judgment
Perspective has been well and truly shot out of the window

I don't know anymore than anyone else following it on the internet and the newsfeeds, I'm going with the idea that on the balance of probability what the majority of experts from around the world are telling us is likely to be right.
The important thing to bear in mind is consequence. If they've got it wrong those are most likely to be economical and it'll take a decade to recover. If we go along with the just like flu theory and that's wrong the consequence is hundreds of thousands of deaths. I don't find it a hard choice.
We seem to have been unprepared for this because previous similar epidemics have hardly touched us, look at the way some of the more experienced Asian countries reacted and how much better they've done because of it. IMO they had an understanding of the possible consequences that we lacked.

I should have phrased the first bit differently, ‘I believe that’ would have been better.

simonhill
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Re: When will you tour again in the uk?

Postby simonhill » 13 Apr 2020, 6:31pm

When will you tour again in the UK?

How quickly threads drift.

LittleGreyCat
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Re: When will you tour again in the uk?

Postby LittleGreyCat » 13 Apr 2020, 7:38pm

simonhill wrote:When will you tour again in the UK?

How quickly threads drift.


Yes.
One I started previously about touring in the next six months has been locked because of off topic in fighting.
Too may bored and frustrated people locked up at home?

RobinS
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Re: When will you tour again in the uk?

Postby RobinS » 13 Apr 2020, 7:51pm

I know it's not "touring in the UK", But President Macron (of France) has just announced partial lifting of restrictions from 11th May, and tourism restarting from "mid-July" - presumably they are hoping to re-open for their main summer holiday season starting at Bastille Day. One downside is that they are not yet planning on opening border to those outside Europe - whether as non-Schengen, and heading towards non-EU we will be allowed in open to question.
Relating it to the UK - France was ahead of us in both Coronavirus numbers, and when they locked down (1 week earlier), and their lockdown has been much more strict than ours, so if we copied them our opening up of tourism would probably be August.

roberts8
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Re: When will you tour again in the uk?

Postby roberts8 » 13 Apr 2020, 8:24pm

Good to see the post back on track. I assume if the ferries are running it should be OK to get to the French ports and hopefully get in. It is good to think of UK trips as I find it is tempting to overlook want is not far away.

James Up Hill
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Re: When will you tour again in the uk?

Postby James Up Hill » 13 Apr 2020, 8:36pm

Marcus Aurelius wrote:Perspective has been well and truly shot out of the window... seasonal influenza kills about 10000 people at this time of year, and that is a well known enemy, with a ( constantly modified ) vaccine available.


Rather more than that. https://fullfact.org/health/coronavirus ... influenza/ states:

"Public Health England estimates that on average 17,000 people have died from the flu in England annually between 2014/15 and 2018/19. However, the yearly deaths vary widely from a high of 28,330 in 2014/15 to a low of 1,692 in 2018/19. Public Health England does not publish a mortality rate for the flu."

What is interesting is that the average incubation period is seven days, and the average period from first symptoms to death is fourteen. That makes a total of twenty-one. And the death rate started to drop off on Saturday, which is *less* than three weeks since lockdown.

The thing that irritates me most is the risible idea that testing and tracing contacts would have any effect on a disease where incubation is up to fourteen days. I've had it, and could have picked it up on any of several dozen tube journeys (or in Madrid), and could have passed it on to hundreds if not thousands in a dozen or more tube journeys. The people who did not catch it from me were my colleagues and my friends whom I saw - or if they did catch it from me, they had a nice low-viral-load dose that gave them immunity without symptoms - which is a way the population normally develops immunity to seasonal 'flu without actually 'catching' it.

I do not believe this is apocalyptic. I think the jury is going to be out for a long time as to whether the economic consequences - with their knock-on consequences to public health (poverty, delay in appointments, lack of treatment for other diseases, unemployment and mental health consequences including suicide) - will have been worth it (and I suspect it will conclude it was not worth it). This is not to dispute the tragedy of each and every death, but 'flu kills people unexpectedly every winter - this is why the NHS struggles every winter. I'm in my forties and fit with no underlying health issues, yet five years ago had 'flu and ended up in hospital with pneumonia. We're not invincible.


To un-drift there is nothing in the Regulations that prevents touring currently. It is exercise. Exercise is permitted. Staying in hotels is not, so you would have to wild camp. I am seriously contemplating my first ever tour shortly if the weather stays nice and I get the kit together and I can be bothered.

PH
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Re: When will you tour again in the uk?

Postby PH » 13 Apr 2020, 9:01pm

James Up Hill wrote:What is interesting is that the average incubation period is seven days, and the average period from first symptoms to death is fourteen. That makes a total of twenty-one. And the death rate started to drop off on Saturday, which is *less* than three weeks since lockdown.

I found you post full of misinformed nonsense but I'm sick of refuting such posts. But the above timescale is wrong, it's four weeks and we've yet to see if the restrictions have had the intended effect.

1982john
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Re: When will you tour again in the uk?

Postby 1982john » 13 Apr 2020, 10:02pm

That was a really interesting speech from Macron.

So their main tourism is opening up mid July (gives the tour a chance to run behind closed doors as well)

Maybe ours can do the same. Hopefully wild camping tours will be earlier. Some hope to save the summer.

RobinS
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Re: When will you tour again in the uk?

Postby RobinS » 13 Apr 2020, 10:17pm

To un-drift there is nothing in the Regulations that prevents touring currently. It is exercise. Exercise is permitted. Staying in hotels is not, so you would have to wild camp. I am seriously contemplating my first ever tour shortly if the weather stays nice and I get the kit together and I can be bothered.


Unnecessary travel is not permitted. Cycletouring, even wild camping would certainly fall under that definition. I would not want to tour anyway until the residents of the areas I was touring welcomed me there - at present you are more likely to get stoned and driven out!

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al_yrpal
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Re: When will you tour again in the uk?

Postby al_yrpal » 13 Apr 2020, 10:41pm

A friend told me today that his daughter, a second home owner from London walked into a pub in Devon where she has a holiday home and was told to F off in no uncertain terms by the locals. Thats probably the reception a cycle tourist will be getting.

Al
Touring on a bicycle is a great way to explore and appreciate the countryside and towns you pass through. Make a difference...

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Sweep
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Re: When will you tour again in the uk?

Postby Sweep » 14 Apr 2020, 1:30am

al_yrpal wrote:A friend told me today that his daughter, a second home owner from London walked into a pub in Devon where she has a holiday home and was told to F off in no uncertain terms by the locals. Thats probably the reception a cycle tourist will be getting.

Al

The pub was open?
Sweep

Oldjohnw
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Re: When will you tour again in the uk?

Postby Oldjohnw » 14 Apr 2020, 6:24am

LittleGreyCat wrote:
simonhill wrote:When will you tour again in the UK?

How quickly threads drift.


Yes.
One I started previously about touring in the next six months has been locked because of off topic in fighting.
Too may bored and frustrated people locked up at home?


Except the the person who went off on one was talking about touring the UK, not in the future but now.
John