Touring overseas 2021

[Traction_man]

One thing for sure, as soon as it is deemed possible (by any countries concerned) to travel in Europe again there will be a mad rush. Ferry and air tickets (and accomodation) will be like gold dust. Such a pent-up demand, at least from those who don't have financial worries and haven't been spending money during lockdowns.

likewise for the UK, it seems there's an expected rush on bookings for domestic holidays this coming summer--https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-55659639

I hope this doesn't mean a repeat of last year's 'fly camping' episodes--https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/jul/19/it-was-like-a-bomb-had-hit-an-off-licence-rise-in-wild-camping-hits-beauty-spots

for me, I reckon it'll be a case of just enjoying again the areas not so distant from home, perhaps SW Scotland or Donegal...

cheers,

Keith

[Jdsk]

My "worry" is that it's longer than just adapting the vaccine. e.g. AstraZenica: Once adapted (30 days), to produce the vaccine takes 2 months (and that cannot be speeded-up, QA, then shipping, batch testing, distribution within in UK, book appointments, get people and in total somewhat over4 months before the 1st person gets an adapted vaccine in their arm.

Other issues include the approach the regulator takes to new vaccines that are very similar to those that are already approved and the possible complexities if two (or more) vaccines are needed to cover the target variants.

Jonathan

[Slowroad]

I'll be very satisfied this year if I manage a few weekend trips to see friends I couldn't see last year, and delighted if I can get away to Wales or possibly Scotland. That's even while I'm really missing my annual weeks in the Netherlands, Germany or France, and hope I'll be able to go in 2022...
Maybe having a plan A, plan B and Plan C is a good idea...

[willem jongman]

In the meantime and as of next Saturday the Netherlands have closed the borders with the UK (plus S Africa and Latin America) for all but the most urgent travel. For at least a few weeks we will also have a curfew.

[nsew]

The S.African variant in particular is scaring the hell out of authorities. We won’t be hearing our vacc’d to the eyeballs public school twit bumble on about it at the lectern. Preliminary tests show it requires 8X the current Pfizer dose to provide sufficient anti-bodies to guard against severe infection.

[st599_uk]

One thing for sure, as soon as it is deemed possible (by any countries concerned) to travel in Europe again there will be a mad rush. Ferry and air tickets (and accomodation) will be like gold dust. Such a pent-up demand, at least from those who don't have financial worries and haven't been spending money during lockdowns.

Whenever I've been touring France, Belgium, Germany, Netherlands, I meet relatively few other cyclists. Another aspect I have no idea about is how "the majority" (non-cyclists) book their summer holidays. If they tend to chose dates well in advance maybe this year they'll book UK places so they've got something and will have more confidence about it actually happening (and without sudden new policy of "quarantine on return from overseas"). I tend to decide to head off one day and depart the next but I've no idea how many do their annual summer holiday on the spur of the moment.

Ian

Those who have kids and have to book holiday around term times tend to book up long in advance - but last year it seemed patchy.

Last year, toured Norfolk and Suffolk, found a great eco-farm with camping, wasn't hugely expensive (half the price of other sites we ended up at), but there were only 8 pitches on a huge field, with wildflowers and views for miles, campfires encouraged, a brick pizza oven available and there were only 2 pitches used, my group of 3 and a young family in August in scorching weather. At another site a field the same size had about 100 tents crammed in.

Luckily I have written permission to enter the EU in early summer for work with tests and a quarantine stay in a hotel near Schipol, but I'm not sure if tourists will get in any time soon. And to be honest, if I was paying for the 10 days in a hotel, I probably wouldn't be rushing.

[Jdsk]

The S.African variant in particular is scaring the hell out of authorities. We won’t be hearing our vacc’d to the eyeballs public school twit bumble on about it at the lectern. Preliminary tests show it requires 8X the current Pfizer dose to provide sufficient anti-bodies to guard against severe infection.

Have you got a source for that, please?

Thanks

Jonathan

[nsew]

I’m trying to find that source at the moment. I have been getting my information from the New York Times (paywall) If you are able to read, the following is a thorough and particularly fascinating piece on the British variant

Inside the B.1.1.7 Coronavirus Variant
NYT January. 18, 2021

[Jdsk]

Thanks

Jonathan

[nsew]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55428953 is an article from one month ago. It lists 2 known cases in UK. Last week there were 27 known cases.

From NYT (edited)

The Spike N501Y Mutation

Scientists suspect that one mutation, called N501Y, is very important in making B.1.1.7 coronaviruses more contagious. The mutation’s name refers to the nature of its change: the 501st amino acid in the spike protein switched from N (asparagine) to Y (tyrosine).

In a typical coronavirus, the tip of the spike protein is like an ill-fitting puzzle piece. It can latch onto human cells, but the fit is so loose that the virus often falls away and fails to infect the cell.

The N501Y mutation seems to refine the shape of the puzzle piece, allowing a tighter fit and increasing the chance of a successful infection.

[st599_uk]

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/heal ... 90145.html

From yesterday - vaccines may be "slightly diminished" by SA variant

[nsew]

From NYT (edited)

“A number of researchers suspect that B.1.1.7 gained many of its mutations within a single person. People with weakened immune systems can remain infected with replicating coronaviruses for several months, allowing the virus to accumulate many extra mutations.”

The Independent article starts positively and ends with deep concerns about mutations. From the article.....

“Experts have meanwhile reacted with concern to the findings of the research published by the NICD earlier this week.

In a study of 44 people who had been previously infected during South Africa’s first wave, scientists found that the variant was not recognised by antibodies present within the blood plasma of 21 cases.

“In the other half of those individuals, however, there is some recognition that remains,” said professor Penny Moore, the study lead. “I should add those are normally people who were incredibly ill, hospitalised and mounted a very robust response to the virus.”

She said the research made it “clear that we do have a problem”, but warned against jumping to conclusions without further analysis.l

[nsew]

Here’s the abstract and link. The article I read was scientists extrapolating on the study.

18.1.21 Abstract

SARS-CoV-2 501Y.V2, a novel lineage of the coronavirus causing COVID-19, contains multiple mutations within two immune dominant domains of the spike protein. Here we show that this lineage exhibits complete escape from three classes of therapeutically relevant monoclonal antibodies. Furthermore 501Y.V2 shows substantial or complete escape from neutralizing antibodies in COVID-19 convalescent plasma. These data highlight the prospect of reinfection with antigenically distinct variants and may foreshadow reduced efficacy of current spike-based vaccines.

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... l.pdf+html

[Jdsk]

Thankyou

Jonathan

[northerncyclist]

The really great thing about this forum is the way threads just go their own way and have nothing to do cycling or the original question.....
Now where was I ?