EU Vaccine Passport

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MartinBrice
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Re: EU Vaccine Passport

Post by MartinBrice »

Thank you for a brief interlude of sanity.
pwa
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Re: EU Vaccine Passport

Post by pwa »

willem jongman wrote: 6 Apr 2021, 4:53pm You are right that the Spanish Flu was not Spanish and that the Dutch elm disease was not Dutch. I don't know about French sequencing, but I do know that the British mutation did not originate in the Netherlands, and that its first occurrence here could be connected to travel from the UK.
More generally, it is known that such mutations thrive on high infection rates, and that the UK had precisely that, due to Johnson's downplaying the seriousness of the pandemic, with a mortality rate that has been about twice as high as it has been in Germany or the Netherlands. It is for the same reason that I am troubled by his move to open pubs etc before many experts said it is safe. It looks as if he has not learned from his previous mistakes.
Since it is also known that travel favours spreading of infections, I would expect EU authorities to be reticent about lifting travel restrictions too early. Do not forget that Angela Merkel is a former research scientist in quantitative chemistry.
The pubs are only due to open for outdoors at first. And last time the pubs opened there was doubt cast (by the experts) that they played a major part in transmission. The big culprit seemed to be people having others in their homes, contrary to the regulations at the time.
ANTONISH
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Re: EU Vaccine Passport

Post by ANTONISH »

willem jongman wrote: 6 Apr 2021, 4:53pm You are right that the Spanish Flu was not Spanish and that the Dutch elm disease was not Dutch. I don't know about French sequencing, but I do know that the British mutation did not originate in the Netherlands, and that its first occurrence here could be connected to travel from the UK.
More generally, it is known that such mutations thrive on high infection rates, and that the UK had precisely that, due to Johnson's downplaying the seriousness of the pandemic, with a mortality rate that has been about twice as high as it has been in Germany or the Netherlands. It is for the same reason that I am troubled by his move to open pubs etc before many experts said it is safe. It looks as if he has not learned from his previous mistakes.
Since it is also known that travel favours spreading of infections, I would expect EU authorities to be reticent about lifting travel restrictions too early. Do not forget that Angela Merkel is a former research scientist in quantitative chemistry.
The "British" mutation could have originated in Britain or somewhere else in the world.
The Netherlands has a much lower rate per 100k of population than the UK - however Belgium has a higher rate ( I would have expected it to be similar to the Netherlands)
The cause of different rates may also have something to do with the population - average age, obesity, poverty, ethnic complexity etc
I agree that the UK government response was in many ways chaotic and contributed to the spread of the virus.
willem jongman
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Re: EU Vaccine Passport

Post by willem jongman »

Belgium is a very different country, where e.g. pubs and universities remained open much longer. I guess part of the explanation for the high UK infection rate is the much larger social inequality and poverty in the UK: it is the poor who have been hit disproportionally. Even so, the Johnson government was in denial for quite a while, and the relaxation last Christmas was right from the loony bin. The end result has been twice as high mortality in the UK compared to Germany or the Netherlands. And none of this saved the UK economy: with almost 10% decline in GDP in 2020 it was the worst performer of all G7 countries (the Dutch economy declined 3.8%).
Anyway, Dutch vaccinations are on track now for a rapid catching up and mortality is already declining. My wife will get her first shot sometime next week, and I will get mine a few weeks later.
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al_yrpal
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Re: EU Vaccine Passport

Post by al_yrpal »

Heard from my old friend in Bavaria, I am sure he wont mind me pasting some of it here...

"The (missing) vaccination is the most important and angry issue here.
Of course the EU is lethargic and the German government, too.
The problem in Germany is the federalism, Mrs. Merkel can decide what she wants,
the prime minister of the provinces here are not bounded.
But unfortunately Ms. Merkel does not have any concept, too.
German politicians talk and talk and talk...................and do nothing.

Today we read news in financial times from your health minister: GB made the better contract with Astra,the EU has only best efforts, GB has exclusive rights.

This showes the main problem here:the lack of vaccine.

Therefore EU deciced that all deliveries of vaccine to states outside of the EU must
be authorized by EU, beginning with first of february.
At 10th february a German journal ("Spiegel") sent a request to EU, how many
export permissions have been sent to EU: 37 permissions in 10 days.
Vaccine is delivered to USA, GB, Russia, China, Canada and some small countries
(decending sequence).
Most vaccine from EU is exported!
How many denied exports: NULL
The EU is what we call here a toothless tiger.

Moderna vaccine is produced in EU, must be sent to USA for filling, and sent back: nothing.
But of course this is not the real reason for sending the vaccine to USA,
no problem to do this job in Germany or elsewhere in the EU.

This bad crises management in Germany becomes a real problem for the government parties, especially for the CDU (Merkel party).
Last weekend we had elections in two states, and CDU was the big looser!
In addition there are some bribe affairs in CDU and CSU (bavaria), concerning
aquisition of protection masks.
In autumn we will have elections for whole Germany, and I fear that we can get
an instable situation.

Brexit: EU is a regulation monster, well known to all countries outside.
Advantage for the EU countries, protection of the EU common market.
All these effects are known since years, but unfortunately GB decided to cross the border.
For example: my wife sells horse bandages, easy in EU,
but a big effort sending only to Switzerland. Tax declaration, high sending
costs, delivery delay. And USA: forget it."

Because he is recently retired and no longer in business his English has deteriorated a bit. Apparently the present situation has sullied the UKs reputation somewhat. He is retired and expects to be vaccinated in August/September.

Al
Reuse, recycle, thus do your bit to save the planet.... Get stuff at auctions, Dump, Charity Shops, Facebook Marketplace, Ebay, Car Boots. Choose an Old House, and a Banger ..... And cycle as often as you can......
willem jongman
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Re: EU Vaccine Passport

Post by willem jongman »

German federalism was imposed by the Allies and is now a real problem. Merkel has announced that she may override the regions.
I think your friend is too pessimistic about vaccination. Germany and the Netherlands have similar vaccine supplies so it should be his turn sooner rather than later given the massive surge in Biontech supplies that is now being delivered (their new Marburg plant will produce a billion doses a year and other plants will open soon as well).
I was impressed by German efficiency and social discipline when I was cycle touring there last summer. Even now, when they are very worried about infections, their infection rate is still much lower than in many neighbouring countries. They have a very careful mindset. I would love to tour in France or Italy this summer but Germany is my plan B, precisely because of its discipline and low infection rate. Give me Angela Merkel every time.
And yes, Brexit has been a disaster for international trade.
willem jongman
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Re: EU Vaccine Passport

Post by willem jongman »

And to add some precision: in the Netherlands everyone over 60 and all medical/care staff should have had their first jab by early May. And that is before the really large number of doses will arrive. Germany cannot be very different. The only risk is when authorities have to decide that the AZ vaccine is not safe enough. I hope that will not be necessary.
fullfathom5
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Re: EU Vaccine Passport

Post by fullfathom5 »

willem jongman wrote: 5 Apr 2021, 12:52pm Europe is already suffering badly from a mutation that emerged in the UK, probably as the result of Boris Johnson's inept handling of the pandemic in the UK, with far higher infection rates, and about twice as much mortality as over here. Indeed, nobody is safe until all are safe, and limiting travel is a useful tool, however unpleasant.
And yet according to worldometers (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/) a number of countries in Europe (including the Netherlands, Belgium and France) have higher cases per million of population than the UK and the UK performs far more testing.
Jdsk
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Re: EU Vaccine Passport

Post by Jdsk »

fullfathom5 wrote: 7 Apr 2021, 2:36pmAnd yet according to worldometers (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/) a number of countries in Europe (including the Netherlands, Belgium and France) have higher cases per million of population than the UK and the UK performs far more testing.
Are we discussing current cases or total cases, please?

Thanks

Jonathan
fullfathom5
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Re: EU Vaccine Passport

Post by fullfathom5 »

Jdsk wrote: 7 Apr 2021, 2:38pm
fullfathom5 wrote: 7 Apr 2021, 2:36pmAnd yet according to worldometers (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/) a number of countries in Europe (including the Netherlands, Belgium and France) have higher cases per million of population than the UK and the UK performs far more testing.
Are we discussing current cases or total cases, please?

Thanks

Jonathan
Total cases according to worldometers.

I suspect the higher death rate in the UK is largely due to less investment in the health service, population density, diet and general fitness levels.
Jdsk
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Re: EU Vaccine Passport

Post by Jdsk »

Thanks

Jonathan
willem jongman
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Re: EU Vaccine Passport

Post by willem jongman »

Case numbers are problematic indices. Mortality rate is better but even that is not a perfect metric because cause of death is a slippery concept.
fullfathom5
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Re: EU Vaccine Passport

Post by fullfathom5 »

willem jongman wrote: 7 Apr 2021, 2:58pm Case numbers are problematic indices. Mortality rate is better but even that is not a perfect metric because cause of death is a slippery concept.
And again the UK could have a lower number of total infections but a higher mortality rate due to the reasons I outlined previously.
willem jongman
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Re: EU Vaccine Passport

Post by willem jongman »

Sure. Our intensive care units are primarily occupied by older obese men with diabetes etc. If a country has more of those, infections are more lethal. So it could be something like that. However, plenty of such people in Germany as well. Their food is at least as bad for you as in the UK.
Last edited by willem jongman on 15 Apr 2021, 11:27am, edited 1 time in total.
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mjr
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Re: EU Vaccine Passport

Post by mjr »

willem jongman wrote: 7 Apr 2021, 10:53am German federalism was imposed by the Allies and is now a real problem. Merkel has announced that she may override the regions.
I doubt she can. I suspect she would get put back in line by the courts, similar to how Rutte had his bottom handed to him by the NL courts when he tried to rule by decree and bypass a difficult parliament.

It is only in constitutionless countries like the UK where the Union government can abruptly and unilaterally declare the delegated public health system obsolete, claim they've brought it all back into their control and then sell it to their chums. Even with the Union Parliament being sovereign (rather than the constituent people, states or nations), the power to pull that sort of stunt could have been limited by a well-defined constitution. The UK's unwritten rules literally cost lives last year.
MJR, mostly pedalling 3-speed roadsters. KL+West Norfolk BUG incl social easy rides http://www.klwnbug.co.uk
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