UK Traffic light travel scheme in Europe

[Aquila]

Is anyone considering a tour in mainland Europe this summer? Has anyone looked into the added costs and number of hoops your going to have to jump through to get there and back? even if most of Europe goes green in the coming weeks.

[Jdsk]

There's extensive discussion of this in Summer Plans:
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=144471

and EU Vaccine Passport:
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=144223

Jonathan

[willem jongman]

It is rapidly getting easier, and particularly if you have been fully vaccinated. For now cycle touring will still be hard but vaccination is progressing rapidly and the infection rate is coming down. In the Netherlands we are now vaccinating the 50-60 year olds and with up to 2 million doses arriving each of the coming weeks the planning is to have everyone who wants to vaccinated once by early July, and some two thirds already fully vaccinated. So August will be a better bet than July. Time will tell.
One complication may be the spread of the Indian variant in the UK. Germany has already restricted travel from the UK.

[francovendee]

I think Germany should be the example for the rest of Europe. We all saw how quickly the UK variant spread and the Indian variant is reportedly more infectious.
Until the majority of citizens have been vaccinated it's safer to restrict travel.

[willem jongman]

Yes Germany is a good example of how to do this. Therefore, last summer we decided to have a cycling holiday in the north of Germany. Face masks were mandatory, there were red lights when supermarkets were too crowded, at many places you had to leave your addresss for future contact tracing, and by and large people did behave themselves.
The picture in the Netherlands is far more varied. Government policy has responded more slowly than in Germany, and the lockdown was never complete. Even so, we did quite well until the Autumn, when the government was far too slow to act on the second wave of infections, and ever since our infection rate has been high. Fortunately infections are now going down rapidly, with vaccination of the over 60's more or less completed, and vaccination of the 50-59 year olds in progrogress. We are also expecting massive quantities of vaccines, so I do believe we will hit the early July target.
Interestingly the infection rate was and remains very different for different parts of the country: the infection rate in the North (where we live) was and remains significantly lower than in the South. I am not sure whether this is due to cultural differences (the South is catholic and by and large not as rule abiding), or environmental, with its close proximity to air polution from the Ruhr area in Germany and intensive animal husbandry that has also been connected to infection rates. There is plenty of scope for interesting research.

[PaulaT]

Anyone who believes the India variant isn't in the EU is living in cloud cuckoo land. With the the exception of Denmark, genomic sequencing over there is pretty low-level so they don't really know what variants are circulating. Even so it's been detected in Germany and Denmark. It'll also be spreading silently at a low level in other EU countries. Given their inadequate vaccination levels and that they're opening up against a background of still quite high covid levels, it's odds on that there'll be another wave over there.

[willem jongman]

I think you are both right and wrong. Nobody denies that there is already some spreading, but thus far it is slow, which is not surprising given that there is rather less interaction between India and e.g. Germany than with the UK. I don't know about Germany, but in the Netherlands test data are systematically sampled (1000 samples each week) for mutations and the Indian mutation has barely turned up yet. Statistically that is a quite reliable result. Of course it will be a race against time, but you are underestimating the speed at which vaccination is progressing and the imminent further speed increase. Today, Germany has vaccinated about 40% of its population at least once, and the Netherlands are not far behind. Right now we are vaccinating the 50-59 year olds, and we are about to begin with the 40-49s.The long overdue success shows in finally rapidly declining infection and hospital admission rates. The Netherlands are also about to receive a further 2 million doses per week for a population of 13 million people over 18. Other EU countries will experience similar increases in vaccine supplies, so the decline in infections will not remain isolated. Both Germany and the Netherlands also benefit from their predominant use of the BionTech/Pfizer vaccine that may well be a bit more effective against new variants than the Astra Zeneca one, and can certainly be adapted quite easily. I hope I am right, but I agree that travel should remain restricted for a while.
In my perception many people including politicians wrongly ignored the early signs of rising infection rates, because they could not grasp the impact of the combination of exponential growth and a time lag in observation. On the other hand, and in similar fashion, many people do not seem to grasp the dramatic effect of vaccination, even though it was and is quite visible in Israel, then the UK and now the US. The next challenge, now that in western countries vaccines are increasingly available, is to deal with those who do not want to be vaccinated. My Italian university colleagues tell me that everyone working in education was compulsorily vaccinated, just like everyone in medical care.

[Jdsk]

With the the exception of Denmark, genomic sequencing over there is pretty low-level so they don't really know what variants are circulating.

The current data are at:

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/covid-19/variants-concern

and

https://covid19-country-overviews.ecdc.europa.eu

which includes:

Variants of concern and variants of interest

Sequencing capacity varies greatly across the EU/EEA; 14 EU/EEA countries (Belgium, Denmark, Estonia, France, Germany, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Malta, Norway, Poland and Sweden) met the recommended level of 10% or 500 sequences of SARS-CoV-2-positive cases sequenced and reported to the GISAID EpiCoV database by 11 May 2021 or to TESSy by 9 May 2021 (data referring to the period from 19 April to 2 May 2021). During the same period, six countries sequenced and reported between 60 and 499 samples, while 10 countries sequenced and reported <60 samples or did not report data.

Among the 14 countries with the recommended level of 10% or 500 sequences reported per week in the period from 19 April to 2 May 2021, 12 had a valid denominator. The median (range) of the variants of concern (VOC) reported in all samples sequenced in the period in these 12 countries was 92.4% (80.7–98.2%) for B.1.1.7, 0.7% (0.0–8.9%) for B.1.351, 0.1% (0.0–6.7%) for P.1 and 0.0% (0.0–0.6%) for B.1.1.7+E484K.

The median (range) of the variants of interest (VOI) reported in all samples sequenced in the period in these 12 countries was 0.0% (0.0–2.5%) for B.1.617, 0.0% (0.0–2.2%) for B.1.525, 0.0% (0.0–0.1%) for B.1.620 and 0.0% (0.0–0.0%) for B.1.621. A list of current variants of concern and variants of interest for the EU/EEA is published on ECDC’s website.

Jonathan

[willem jongman]

Dutch infection numbers continue to decline rapidly: today they are about half of what they were only a week ago. Hospital and ICU admissions are also down quite a bit. In my town infections are now well below the strict German infection rate norm for travel. The country still has some way to go, but we are getting there.

[Aquila]

This is mostly encouraging news thanks' but it doesn't help with my query.

I'm hoping to go either towards the end of June or towards the 2nd week in July, My ferry is already booked although I can deter the dates to later or even next year if need be, but I'm itching to get away as the trip was cancelled last year so I'm trying to determine if its worth the hassle and expense if the Netherlands or Germany go green in the coming weeks.

[Psamathe]

This is mostly encouraging news thanks' but it doesn't help with my query.

I'm hoping to go either towards the end of June or towards the 2nd week in July, My ferry is already booked although I can deter the dates to later or even next year if need be, but I'm itching to get away as the trip was cancelled last year so I'm trying to determine if its worth the hassle and expense if the Netherlands or Germany go green in the coming weeks.

For me it would not only be about being allowed into a country but what the rules about what is possible once you are there. France has had a lot of curfews and even if you were allowed in, touring with a strict curfew would not be fun. Add no restaurants, no (or restricted) camp sites and it could turn into just not worth it trip.

Also risks must depend on your circumstances. Yet again Johnson has dithered about restrictions on travel India to UK allowing us to get a good dose of a new variant. He's rightly now getting criticism so there is always a chance that next time he might act in a timely manner and if that means stopping some EU country you happen to be in mid-tour (and unable to race to the ferry and get a place) you potentially risk an overpriced stay in a Government establishment (quarantine) or maybe you'd get away with self-isolation at home - either of which could be a real nuisance if you need to get back to work to get paid.

I'm not trying to discourage your getting away, just that we will be living in a restricted and changing situation probably for some time to come and all the talk in the UK about lifting restrictions and returning to normal can make one forget what is still floating around and gaining resistance ...

Ian

[willem jongman]

The future is hard to predict, but see here for up to date numbers for the Netherlands: https://coronadashboard.government.nl/ and here for Germany: https://experience.arcgis.com/experienc ... ge/page_1/ If the trend continues and if you will have had your second shot more than two weeks before you travel, I would not expect a lot of difficulties, although it will help if the UK government joins the Digital Corona Certificate in one way or another. A later date will be a better bet than an earlier one. And it depends on the spread of the 'Ïndian' variant in the UK. Germany and the Netherlands have banned flights from India quite a while ago.
As for campsites, the problem will not be restrictions at those sites, but finding a vacant spot, given that more people will want to stay in the home country. Curfew in the Netherlands has already been lifted, and shops are open. Restaurants not yet, but I expect outdoor dining to be possible sooner rather than later (outdoor lunches are already permitted).

[willem jongman]

It now appears that today's much lower infection numbers for the Netherlands are incomplete due to computer issues. However, the trend remains clear. Tomorrow the government will announce further relaxations of the remaining restrictions. Outdoor dining e.g. will be allowed until 8pm.

[matt2matt2002]

Any thoughts on vacation passports/ proof?
I am 67, in UK and have had x2 Pfzer.
I was given no certificate.
A friend had chosen not to have the vaccinations.
When we both arrive at a European border, what happens?

[Jdsk]

Any thoughts on vacation passports/ proof?
I am 67, in UK and have had x2 Pfzer.
I was given no certificate.
A friend had chosen not to have the vaccinations.
When we both arrive at a European border, what happens?

Currently discussed over here, including the UK's certification scheme:

viewtopic.php?f=16&t=144223&start=210

Jonathan