Europe 2021

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PaulaT
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Joined: 20 Dec 2018, 6:41pm
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Re: Europe July.????

Post by PaulaT »

Psamathe wrote: 18 Jun 2021, 9:36pm
willem jongman wrote: 18 Jun 2021, 9:26pm ....The British experience is worrysome: if such a high vaccination rate still does not prevent a surge in infections this is really a concern.
Not just the UK but e.g. compare Israel vs Chile - despite comparable vaccination rates (also comparable with UK), Chile (mainly Santiago) is really suffering. Current reports
[url]https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/apr/11/is-vaccinating-against-covid-enough-what-we-can-learn-from-other-countries[/url] wrote:Several reasons have been put forward for this unexpected jump [in Chile]: the spread of more virulent coronavirus strains from Brazil; increased numbers of Chileans travelling around the country; and reduced adherence to social distancing after the vaccination programme gave people a false sense of security.
If correct it would suggest that vaccination is not the one answer but a component of the answer. Political over-enthusiasm to discard measures that don't really restrict anybody is daft e.g. why end mask requirements (I don't like them but compared to pandemics "dislike" is irrelevant).

Ian
The situation in Chile is a bit puzzling. Perhaps the Chinese vaccines aren't as effective as they're claimed to be? Unlike the Russian Sputnik vaccine, there have been no peer-reviewed phase three trial results published for any of the Chinese vaccines AFAIK.

Returning to the UK, Delta here is spreading overwhelmingly amongst the un-vaccinated most of whom are under 30. The spill-over into the fully-vaccinated older population is quite small and even then those who still get Covid tend to get much milder symptoms with a shorter duration. Both Pfizer and AZ are proving very effective at preventing serious illness and hospitalisations. But we do need to remember that no vaccine is 100% effective. The best protection comes from being fully vaccinated amongst a population who are also fully vaccinated.
willem jongman
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Re: Europe July.????

Post by willem jongman »

Indeed, the more people are vaccinated the better. In the Netherlands the 18 year olds have now been invited to make an appointment and most of them should be vaccinated within the next two or three weeks. Some 40% öf the over 18s have now also had a second dose and it looks as if as in the UK the goverment will opt to prioritize second doses over and above first doses for those below 18. Prioritising second doses will be good to bring down hospitalization of older people but prioritising the much younger may well reduce the spread of infections. Quite a few unvaccinated young people have already brought back the virus from post final school exam holidays in Spain or Turkey. Thus far the delta variant is only increasing very slowly (now just over 2% of cases) but it is increasing. So vaccinating in groups that have proved reluctant will be a high priority. This means primarily the Bible Belt and deprived areas in the big cities.
In the meantime the infection rate continues to decline (now just over 700 on a population of 17 million), and so are numbers of hospital and ICU admissons, and covid related deaths.
PaulaT
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Location: Staffordshire

Re: Europe July.????

Post by PaulaT »

willem jongman wrote: 20 Jun 2021, 9:02pm and it looks as if as in the UK the goverment will opt to prioritize second doses over and above first doses for those below 18.
No decision has been taken on vaccinating under 18s. Anything you may have read claiming otherwise will be a piece of journalistic fantasy. It's actually not an easy decision to make as there are very compelling arguments on both sides of the debate. Ultimately the Government will continue to follow the advice of the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation. Meanwhile there is a debate about a third booster jab. I think us oldies will be offered a third jab simply as a precaution as we don't yet know how long immunity will last so a third jab to make sure that we're well protected through the winter seems a sensible precaution. Trials are under way to see if giving a different vaccine from the first two will give a broader immune response but that data from that isn't in yet.

81.6% of adults have now had at least one jab. 59.5% of adults have now had both jabs. I think we'll pass the 60% mark tomorrow. By the time restrictions are fully lifted in 4 weeks time we should be at about 80% fully vaccinated and hopefully over 90% having had one jab although that depends hugely on the number of people coming forward to be vaccinated. So far though it seems that enthusiasm to get vaccinated is very high even amongst younger people so I'm fairly sure that we'll get to well over 90% coming forward for vaccination if for no other reason that they'll to be vaccinated in order to travel abroad. I don't think we'll need to bribe people with the offer of guns or cannabis to get them to come forward ;)
willem jongman
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Re: Europe July.????

Post by willem jongman »

I agree it is a hard choice, although I would probably prefer to prioritize vaccinating young people because they seem to be the big spreaders right now, at least here in the Netherlands. Vaccinating the 16 and 17 year olds may be a sensible compromise, given their propensity to party.
Here too there seems to be a real willingness to be vaccinated, apart from the two groups that I mentioned and that need special attention to prevent local pockets of unvaccinated people. The authorities have started a campaign with mobile vaccination centres to raise the vaccination rate in deprived urban areas. In one of them, in The Hague, not even 70% of the over 60s had opted for vaccination. For those groups the one shot Janssen vaccine is now used. The national prognosis is now for 87%, but I would not be surprised if we reach 90% by the time people really have to decide, because that is what happened nationwide with the age group 40 and over: their vaccination rates are in the 90-96% range.
My estimate is that everyone over 45 or 50 who wants to will have been given a second dose in about two weeks' time. The 60-65 age cohort were given AZ so their interval was longer and it is now their turn to get their second dose. In the meantime the younger age groups who had Pfizer will have overtaken them by then, down to, I guess 45 or 50. We shall see what the exact numbers will be.
I will drive my 25 year old daughter to a vaccination centre in one of the villages on Friday, because the two big ones in town did not have a slot, given the large number of students in the younger age cohorts. Next week it will be my son's turn, again in one of the villages. In the meantime, the infection rate in town is down to 2.1 per day per 100k inhabitants, about half the national average.
And since we are not alone in the world, this week two flights to Surinam will bring that former colony another 160k doses, on top of the 90k sent recently. Between them, that should be enough for a first dose for everyone over 35 or so. This will come with medical teams and equipment as well.
willem jongman
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Joined: 7 Jan 2008, 4:16pm

Re: Europe July.????

Post by willem jongman »

Total number of vaccinations in the Netherlands is now over 14 million. Infections are down again: 585 for the entire country, with 12 hospital admissions, including just 3 intensive care admissions, for the whole country.
willem jongman
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Re: Europe July.????

Post by willem jongman »

The bad news is that young people have gone on post secundary school exam trips to Spain and Portugal and have often come back infected, mostly with the delta variant. Yesterday that delta variant represented about 9% of all infections, which is really a lot more than only a few weeks ago. Therefore, vaccination has become all the more important. In my town the infection rate is still very low (yesterday: 1.7 in a day per 100k), and as a university town (with 60k students) the young who are now being vaccinated represent a far higher proportion of the population, so extra vaccine supplies are brought in. The good news is that take up among young people here is over 90%.
The other good news is that two more factories (one in Germany and one in Switzerland) have been approved by the EMA for the production of the Biontech Pfizer vaccine and will begin production immediately.
nsew
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Re: Europe July.????

Post by nsew »

‘The EU’s disease control agency has called for swifter vaccination in Europe as the highly transmissible Delta variant of Covid is forecast to account for 90% of all cases in member states by the end of August’

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... oss-europe

That’s the Delta variant. There’s a Delta Plus variant from Nepal beginning to make the rounds in India (and no doubt some other neighbouring countries). The D+ variant is the Delta variant on steroids and then some. Following that there will be the Delta Plus Plus variant. Let’s see if South America can come up with a variant that outperforms it.
willem jongman
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Re: Europe July.????

Post by willem jongman »

Yes it is scary. Angela Merkel has just called for tighter EU wide travel rules, referring to Portugal that allowed British tourists to come in, effectively spreading the delta variant in Portugal, but now also in the Netherlands and elsewhere, with tourists coming back from Portugal infected with the delta variant. It really is troubling to see that governments act too late each and every time, to save their tourist industry, or for fear of angering a population that is understandingly keen to go back to their old life. Boris Johnson has been a prime offender several times now, but he is not alone. Vaccination is our only hope.
And to come back to the theme of the thread: I am more and more inclined to abandon hopes of touring in the South. Just like last year, Germany looks like a much safer option for me.
willem jongman
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Joined: 7 Jan 2008, 4:16pm

Re: Europe July.????

Post by willem jongman »

Update: the most recent numbers for Amsterdam are 40% delta variant, and apparently the numbers are also going up rapidly in other big cities. The cause is young still unvaccinated people coming back from holidays. The good news is that young people are now queuing up to get a one shot Janssen vaccination.
PaulaT
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Re: Europe July.????

Post by PaulaT »

willem jongman wrote: 23 Jun 2021, 5:26pm Update: the most recent numbers for Amsterdam are 40% delta variant, and apparently the numbers are also going up rapidly in other big cities. The cause is young still unvaccinated people coming back from holidays. The good news is that young people are now queuing up to get a one shot Janssen vaccination.
I'm not at all surprised about the growth in Delta, It mirrors what happened here in the UK where in a very short space of time it went from from a tiny percentage of cases to being now over 90% of cases.

Something that puzzles me about the Janssen vaccine is that it's basically the same technology as the AZ vaccine yet they only give one dose. So far I've not found anything which explains how that's better than just giving one dose of AZ. I'm also puzzled as to why your country is giving it to younger people considering it has similar blood clot side effect to AZ?
Jdsk
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Re: Europe July.????

Post by Jdsk »

PaulaT wrote: 23 Jun 2021, 10:27pmSomething that puzzles me about the Janssen vaccine is that it's basically the same technology as the AZ vaccine yet they only give one dose. So far I've not found anything which explains how that's better than just giving one dose of AZ. I'm also puzzled as to why your country is giving it to younger people considering it has similar blood clot side effect to AZ?
I think that the answer lies in the history of the trials and the positioning of the product, rather than plausible efficacy or deep knowledge of optimal regimes.

There is a Phase III trial of two doses of the Janssen vaccine.

Jonathan
willem jongman
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Re: Europe July.????

Post by willem jongman »

Indeed, from what I understand is that Janssen positioned it as an easier to use vaccine, particularly for underdeveloped countries. My hunch is that they tweaked it (with a slightly higher dose?) to be just good enough with one dose. The chief developer was on Dutch TV and she said the primary objective had been to prevent hospitalization and death.
When the first reports came in about risks, the Netherlands largely abandoned using it because by now we have more than enough mRNA vaccines. However, we still use it for those people that are hard to reach, like sailors who cannot wait for a second dose, the homeless who would probably not come back for a second dose, or, similarly, people in deprived parts of inner cities who at first avoided vaccination. So it is largely a second best option, with the idea that something is better than nothing. And unlike for AZ, this one shot use has been officially approved. Right now, the remaining doses are used to offer it to young people who have not yet been vaccinated and who want to go on holliday sooner rather than later. And of course, they will, so again, something is better than nothing. So you may ask, why all that fuss about AZ some time ago? The answer is public opinion. AZ had become politically toxic, and somehow the Janssen vaccine has escaped that fate, I guess because it is only offered as an alternative - people can also opt for an mRNA vaccine. And later on the people who take Janssen now can be offered a second shot of either Janssen or an mRNA vacine if that proves beneficial. So for now, what is there to loose?
As for the rapid growth of the delta variant, I think the explanation other than the medical one is once again a too slow response from successive governments. First, the UK government acted far too late, then the Portugese government was crazy to allow British tourists into the country, and then the Dutch government was too slow to recognize that Portugal had become the breach in the walls of fortress Europe. We should have banned travel from Portugal. It is not the first time that our conservative prime minister has acted too slowly out of fear for the populist part of his electorate. And again, Germany provides an example of how this should be done, with, first, an early ban on travel from the UK, and now an attempt by Angela Merkel to get more European uniformity. However, I am afraid it is probably too late: my government is about to relax almost all restrictions. They do not seem capable of grasping the simple mathematics behind exponential growth with an observation time delay. So all that remains is to speed up vaccination even more. I am driving my 25 year old daughter to a rural vaccination site tomorrow.
Last edited by willem jongman on 26 Jun 2021, 9:49am, edited 1 time in total.
PaulaT
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Location: Staffordshire

Re: Europe July.????

Post by PaulaT »

I think it's equally likely that Delta got to Portugal on one of the direct flights from Nepal which were only recently halted. From what I can find out, one of the main areas of infection is the Tagus Valley. British tourists are overwhelmingly drawn to coastal areas for sun, sea, sand and, most importantly, cheap alcohol. If Delta was taken to Portugal from the UK then rates in Portugal would be highest in those coastal resorts and that seems not to be the case. I do think that Portugal was stupid to let us in though.
willem jongman
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Re: Europe July.????

Post by willem jongman »

That, of course, is also where the Dutch tourists went to. Anyway, the Brits should never have been allowed in, and my government should have banned trips to Portugal.
st599_uk
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Re: Europe July.????

Post by st599_uk »

PaulaT wrote: 24 Jun 2021, 5:00pm I think it's equally likely that Delta got to Portugal on one of the direct flights from Nepal which were only recently halted. From what I can find out, one of the main areas of infection is the Tagus Valley. British tourists are overwhelmingly drawn to coastal areas for sun, sea, sand and, most importantly, cheap alcohol. If Delta was taken to Portugal from the UK then rates in Portugal would be highest in those coastal resorts and that seems not to be the case. I do think that Portugal was stupid to let us in though.
Wasn't the recent Champion's League final in the Tagus Valley? That had quite a few visitors from the UK.
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