Europe 2021

[ossie]

For now inside the EU the experts have decided that documented full vaccination is enough, but this may change. And increasingly that vaccination will have to be documented with the EU covid certificate. However, for now friends report that most customs or campsites still accept the yellow international paper vaccination booklet or other official documentation. Of course such tolerance will not last. Many EU countries also insist on face masks and hand desinfection in shops etc, and the 1.5 meter rule.
I was cycling with my daughter in Dutch Limburg and the North of Belgium a few days ago and rules were clearly applied strictly. And as a sign of how quickly things may change, when we returned to our Dutch campsite in the evening we discovered that during the day Belgium had tightened the rules with immediate effect and my not yet fully vaccinated daughter was no longer allowed in.

Now this is interesting Willem and gets us back on topic. Clearly UK folk cannot tour in Belgium or the Netherlands at the moment. We can in France but would have to quarantine on return. It appears in France they've Introduced a Covid health pass from 21/7 for sites accommodating over 50 people and with a swimming pool. That would discount many of the smaller municipals however until you ride up you may have no idea of its capacity and if it has a pool so research required. Details of the health pass here, in short if from the UK you require a test for these sort of campsites until the UK app is compatible with the EU (has this happened yet - I'm not sure )

https://www.connexionfrance.com/French- ... -the-rules

[mattheus]

I have to a agree with please point me to a NL forum where I can sit on the side lines and gloat at all the faults the NL has.
At the end of the day you could give us all a break and use a German forum.
Mods has this not got out of hand for a cycling for A cycling forum ?

This thread has long since become yet another covid thread, and recovery is beyond me.

It has pretty much remained a thread about travelling in a time of Covid though?
Certainly less thread drift than some.

The only subtle differences from Every Other Covid Thread:
- there is a lot more Dutch content on this thread, and
- there is hardly any mention of N*w Z**l**d on this thread.

[gcogger]

It has pretty much remained a thread about travelling in a time of Covid though?
Certainly less thread drift than some.

I think Willem's posts have been very interesting and informative.
He knows his subject and brings a view to us here in the UK that is somewhat restricted by certain factors.
His command of English is superb- unlike some!!
Thanks Willem

I have to agree, and I welcome Willem's input on these subjects. I think it's useful to see things in the context of Europe as a whole, and the knowledge he brings on the situation over there appears very relevant to the topic.

[willem jongman]

"Excess deaths in rich European countries are highly reliable statistics." Indeed this may not be the most exact number, but it is certainly the most reliable. See here for the numbers: https://www.bmj.com/content/373/bmj.n1137

[willem jongman]

And Italy now provides another interesting case for travellers (I am not sure if this also applies to UK visitors). Italy too has now mandated the EU Covid app for visits to various sites and importantly to restaurants and bars (but not for consumption al banco ) But it does so with a smart twist: a single dose is enough. I think this is smart because it avoids the problem that Macron faced that the young cannot yet be fully vaccinated even if they wanted. Macron therefore decided to delay the requirement for them, but Draghi gives them an incentive: if you get a jab now you are covered in two weeks time. I am sure Italy will raise the bar by mid August, and thus have many more fully vaccinated by early September. Smart thinking.

[roubaixtuesday]

Sweden has double the population of Denmark. They also notoriously resisted lockdown. I'd argue that you couldn't have picked two more different examples to compare. Finland on the other hand ?
...


...
In relation to Germany the recording of deaths has been discussed. Our learned Dutch friend added the following even though we digress further.

Well, yes, Finland did even better than Denmark. Not sure how that's relevant to the fact that Denmark did very well relative to pretty much every European country, and you claiming that was down to its size. In the unlikely event you're interested, Denmark, incidentally, had less restrictions than Sweden in most of the pandemic - there's a rough guide here. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covi ... WE~GBR~DNK

As @jdsk points out, European death rates are not seriously at question and can be corroborated through excess death stats. The FT does a very good of tracking that via excess deaths, here https://www.ft.com/content/a2901ce8-5eb ... df5b386938

I'm going to leave you to it now
(1) Because there's no point having a quantitative discourse when you choose to rely on or discard data according to whether it meets your narrative.
(2) Because it's been quite rightly pointed out this is off topic.

[willem jongman]

Interestingly the FT site solves the puzzle about German Covid deaths: their excess mortality is much lower than their reported Covid deaths. So they must have been reporting many people as Covid deaths who would have died shortly afterwards anyway. Their excess mortality is remarkably low, and matches their low infection rate.

[pwa]

Interestingly the FT site solves the puzzle about German Covid deaths: their excess mortality is much lower than their reported Covid deaths. So they must have been reporting many people as Covid deaths who would have died shortly afterwards anyway. Their excess mortality is remarkably low, and matches their low infection rate.

I suppose another explanation is that measures designed to reduce Covid transmission also reduce transmission of influenza and other diseases, so death from or assisted by those diseases will be down on normal levels.

[willem jongman]

Yes but not only in Germany.

[Vorpal]

Interestingly the FT site solves the puzzle about German Covid deaths: their excess mortality is much lower than their reported Covid deaths. So they must have been reporting many people as Covid deaths who would have died shortly afterwards anyway. Their excess mortality is remarkably low, and matches their low infection rate.

I suppose another explanation is that measures designed to reduce Covid transmission also reduce transmission of influenza and other diseases, so death from or assisted by those diseases will be down on normal levels.

Yes but not only in Germany.

The effect of this has been significant in Norway, where for several periods in the last 18 months, excess deaths have been below average.

[Oldjohnw]

Can you explain “excess deaths below average” please?

Thanks.

[thirdcrank]

I took it to be a poor way of expressing the opposite of excess deaths ie fewer than would have been expected. (Perhaps there is an established expression for this)

[Jdsk]

https://www.ft.com/content/a2901ce8-5eb ... df5b386938

That's UK deaths. For each time period that's the number of actual deaths in red compared to the same period in previous years, often the preceding five years, in black.

You can see where the red line is much higher than the black line or the black spread during the outbreak. That's "excess deaths."

But there's a little dip of the red line below the black line very recently. That's "negative excess deaths".

Crossed post: Just as thirdcrank says.

Jonathan

[Oldjohnw]

Thanks, again.

[ossie]

Like Germany it probably raises the question how exactly death rates are reported .

Excess deaths in rich European countries are highly reliable statistics.

Jonathan

Thanks, is we're still off topic (and it appears we are ) and to summarise this is the European excess death rate per 100,000 since the pandemic started. It begs the question have the Norwegians even stepped outside during this pandemic

Bulgaria 491
Nth Macedonia 441
Serbia 415
Lithuania 371
Czech 332
Poland 317
Slovakia 306
Bosnia 304
Romania 301
Hungary 271
Croatia 242
Italy 238
Portugal 197
Spain 197
Slovenia 192
Latvia 175
UK 170
Belgium 168
Estonia 152
Netherlands 123
France 120
Austria 117
Switzerland 115
Sweden 98
Germany 70
Ireland 37
Finland 18
Denmark 4
Norway -16

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detai ... hs-tracker