Europe 2021

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PDQ Mobile
Posts: 4659
Joined: 2 Aug 2015, 4:40pm

Re: Europe July.????

Post by PDQ Mobile »

francovendee wrote: 4 Jun 2021, 8:24am
The biggest danger to France is the government allowing international travel. It's travel that spreads new viruses and although it is hard on families there should be a ban.
I watch the UK closely and even with their great success with vaccinations the Delta version of the virus is giving them concern and allowing visitors to come can only increase the risks here.
Yet if the same virus exists in any two locations and people are mixing socially and widely in those locations then a small amount of International travel for family or other important reasons won't make a jot of difference to the spread.
Because the virus is already there.
Spread comes predominantly through close contact.

As something of an aside I see Michael Gove has been alerted by his "Covid App" after flying to Portugal merely to watch football!
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57355599
simonhill
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Location: Essex

Re: Europe July.????

Post by simonhill »

It has been suggested that Boris is desperate to protect the UK opening up on 21 June. International travel is a fall guy.
pq
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Re: Europe July.????

Post by pq »

It's interesting how we get different views on the take up of the vaccine here in France. Mine is different to yours and amongst friends and acquaintances I know of only one person (23 yo) who will refuse a vaccination.
A poll (May) conducted by the centre for political research at Sciences Po university by polling firm Opinion Way, reported 65 percent of people saying they had either been vaccinated or intended to be vaccinated
Thirteen percent said they were unsure and 20 percent said they did not intend to get the vaccine.

My daughter works for Veola and they have been offered to be vaccinated at work. She's 28 and had her first (Moderna) yesterday. Everyone in her office who hadn't already been vaccinated took up the offer.
The biggest danger to France is the government allowing international travel. It's travel that spreads new viruses and although it is hard on families there should be a ban.
I watch the UK closely and even with their great success with vaccinations the Delta version of the virus is giving them concern and allowing visitors to come can only increase the risks here.
I hope you're right and I'm wrong! It is true as you point out that poll numbers vary widely - but where we live (very rural with low incomes) it's become very contentious with lots of angry people on both sides. I've been called an idiot for being vaccinated - by a bunch of anti-vaxxers who are happily drinking at our local bar which can only open because people like me have been vaccinated. It fits with a general pattern of conspiracy theories here - the same people believe whatever is doing the rounds on FB. My sense is that they disagree as a point of principle with everything the government says. This isn't about information or rationality, it runs far deeper than that, so a simple information campaign is not going to solve it - specialists in risk communication exist, but I see no evidence that they're being wheeled out to deal with this. I think it's also a rural/urban thing to some extent, the antivaxxers are overwhelmingly people who've lived in this backwater their whole lives, whereas I know very few, regardless of whether they're French or foreign who moved here from a city and are anti-vax. Right now R where we live is reasonable but if the delta variant spreads that will soon change.
One link to your website is enough. G
willem jongman
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Joined: 7 Jan 2008, 4:16pm

Re: Europe July.????

Post by willem jongman »

@ossie I guess you mean me. Yes I think the UK handling of the earlier phases of the pandemic has been grossly inadequate, as that horrible man Cummings confirmed as well, and he is by no means alone.
My point, however, was the methodological one that a static look at a rapidly changing situation is meaningless if you want to understand what the near future will bring. For that you need the trend, and infections and hospitalizations in many EU countries are rapidly coming down, in line with rapidly increasing vaccination rates. Hence even a very strict country like Germany is beginning to relax a bit.
The bad news is that delta variant. Of course it will inevitably come to Europe as well, and increase in prevalence. For now all we can do is delay its surge as much as we can , and since there are already many cases in the UK and only few in the EU, we might succeed by the time almost everone is vaccinated. It will be a race against time, and limiting travel may help just enough.
For now the good news is that yesterday the Netherlands reached its 10th million jab for an over 18 population of 13 million. There is still a way to go, but we are getting there.
And the other good news is that a number of EU countries including Germany have actually started with the Green Cerficate. The Netherlands are a bit behind on this one but to be fair now is not yet the time to travel - not yet.
ossie
Posts: 1793
Joined: 15 Apr 2011, 7:52pm

Re: Europe July.????

Post by ossie »

pq wrote: 4 Jun 2021, 9:36am
It's interesting how we get different views on the take up of the vaccine here in France. Mine is different to yours and amongst friends and acquaintances I know of only one person (23 yo) who will refuse a vaccination.
A poll (May) conducted by the centre for political research at Sciences Po university by polling firm Opinion Way, reported 65 percent of people saying they had either been vaccinated or intended to be vaccinated
Thirteen percent said they were unsure and 20 percent said they did not intend to get the vaccine.

My daughter works for Veola and they have been offered to be vaccinated at work. She's 28 and had her first (Moderna) yesterday. Everyone in her office who hadn't already been vaccinated took up the offer.
The biggest danger to France is the government allowing international travel. It's travel that spreads new viruses and although it is hard on families there should be a ban.
I watch the UK closely and even with their great success with vaccinations the Delta version of the virus is giving them concern and allowing visitors to come can only increase the risks here.
I hope you're right and I'm wrong! It is true as you point out that poll numbers vary widely - but where we live (very rural with low incomes) it's become very contentious with lots of angry people on both sides. I've been called an idiot for being vaccinated - by a bunch of anti-vaxxers who are happily drinking at our local bar which can only open because people like me have been vaccinated. It fits with a general pattern of conspiracy theories here - the same people believe whatever is doing the rounds on FB. My sense is that they disagree as a point of principle with everything the government says. This isn't about information or rationality, it runs far deeper than that, so a simple information campaign is not going to solve it - specialists in risk communication exist, but I see no evidence that they're being wheeled out to deal with this. I think it's also a rural/urban thing to some extent, the antivaxxers are overwhelmingly people who've lived in this backwater their whole lives, whereas I know very few, regardless of whether they're French or foreign who moved here from a city and are anti-vax. Right now R where we live is reasonable but if the delta variant spreads that will soon change.
I met someone yesterday with the same view. He will refuse the jab. However he was keen to point out that he isn't an anti vaxxer. He listed off the vaccinations he's had for world travel and pointed out the length of process involved in trialling those vaccinations. That's where the credibility seemed to end however (and he may have a point in that regard ) as he then started down the conspiracy theory line with a touch of anti establishment thrown in.
ossie
Posts: 1793
Joined: 15 Apr 2011, 7:52pm

Re: Europe July.????

Post by ossie »

willem jongman wrote: 4 Jun 2021, 9:47am @ossie I guess you mean me. Yes I think the UK handling of the earlier phases of the pandemic has been grossly inadequate, as that horrible man Cummings confirmed as well, and he is by no means alone.
My point, however, was the methodological one that a static look at a rapidly changing situation is meaningless if you want to understand what the near future will bring. For that you need the trend, and infections and hospitalizations in many EU countries are rapidly coming down, in line with rapidly increasing vaccination rates. Hence even a very strict country like Germany is beginning to relax a bit.
The bad news is that delta variant. Of course it will inevitably come to Europe as well, and increase in prevalence. For now all we can do is delay its surge as much as we can , and since there are already many cases in the UK and only few in the EU, we might succeed by the time almost everone is vaccinated. It will be a race against time, and limiting travel may help just enough.
For now the good news is that yesterday the Netherlands reached its 10th million jab for an over 18 population of 13 million. There is still a way to go, but we are getting there.
And the other good news is that a number of EU countries including Germany have actually started with the Green Cerficate. The Netherlands are a bit behind on this one but to be fair now is not yet the time to travel - not yet.
I think we're just getting frustrated Willem so perhaps I was reading too much into your posts. I agree the UK handled things appallingly at the start, I also think we were slow in reacting to the Delta variant where 1500 people returned from India to Bolton before India was given red status. I forget how many flights were allowed to return in that window without quarantine. That said the EU also messed up the big time with their vaccination roll out so I'm glad you're seeing progress at last.
willem jongman
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Joined: 7 Jan 2008, 4:16pm

Re: Europe July.????

Post by willem jongman »

The sad news is that it is precisely people in deprived areas with low income, low levels of education and in mostly rather worse health who are most susceptable to the anti vaccination nonsense. So Covid only worsens the existing inequality. From what I read this also applies to towns in the UK with outbreaks of the delta variant.
st599_uk
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Joined: 4 Nov 2018, 8:59pm

Re: Europe July.????

Post by st599_uk »

I'm beginning to think that tourist travel will be much later this year, if at all.

I know the Netherlands and Germany are being strict about tourists, and going there for work is difficult, but not impossible. I know a few people who are travelling to work on the Euros, their centre is based in Haarlem this year and getting the staff and equipment in has been a massive headache.

I also know of some trade shows that are expected to go ahead in Amsterdam later in the year - one of which brings in 80k visitors.
A novice learning...
“the dreamers of the day are dangerous men, for they may act their dreams with open eyes, to make it possible.”
gloomyandy
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Joined: 16 Mar 2012, 10:46pm

Re: Europe July.????

Post by gloomyandy »

It's not easy to compare different countries either. For instance the Netherlands yesterday had 32,373 tests and found 2,475 cases. The UK had 854,697 tests and found 5,274 cases. So a % positive rate of 7.6% and 0.62%. But I have no idea how sensible it is to compare these two, the Netherlands may be doing a better job at targeting the tests. But my understanding is that governments use the positive test rate as one of the main indicators.
willem jongman
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Re: Europe July.????

Post by willem jongman »

The EU was certainly too slow and by contrast the NHS did a superb job, but we are now making up, and fast. I think we are primarily benefitting from the technical potential of mRNA vaccines to be manufactured reliably in massive quantities. Biontech/Pfizer are flooding the EU with vaccines. Not that we could know this in advance.
willem jongman
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Joined: 7 Jan 2008, 4:16pm

Re: Europe July.????

Post by willem jongman »

The Netherlands are not putting much effort into testing anymore, but into ramping up vaccination instead. Commercial tests are often not recorded either. By now almost all older and more vulnerable people have been vaccinated, so hospital admissions are the more important metric and as in the UK those are rapidly coming down. It will not be long before almost all hospital admissions are of those who did not want to be vaccinated - in fact we are almost there already.
willem jongman
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Re: Europe July.????

Post by willem jongman »

I grew up in Haarlem - it is a lovely city and attractive for international businesses because it is on some main railway lines and motorways, and close to the airport. And it is only a short bicycle ride to the dunes and the beach.
I do not expect really big problems for major events from September, once everybody has been fully vaccinated. No kissing and hugging and some elementary hygienic measures, but not much more I would think. We shall see - the future remains hard to predict.
gloomyandy
Posts: 1140
Joined: 16 Mar 2012, 10:46pm

Re: Europe July.????

Post by gloomyandy »

willem jongman wrote: 4 Jun 2021, 10:42am Biontech/Pfizer are flooding the EU with vaccines.
I'm sure they are and with each course costing $30 a go and Biontech profits of over $1.37Billion plus probably something similar for Pfizer, they have a lot of incentive to do so. Every cloud has a silver lining. I'm sure the Biontech/Pfizer vaccine is very good, but it is worth keeping in mind that these sorts of profits can buy a lot of good news.
willem jongman
Posts: 2750
Joined: 7 Jan 2008, 4:16pm

Re: Europe July.????

Post by willem jongman »

Sure though I think the EU bought them more cheaply.
Biontech have said they will invest the proceeds in their reserach. Their core business is cancer drugs and this was just an offshoot. I am hoping the technology can also be used to improved the efficacy of flu vaccines.
francovendee
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Joined: 5 May 2009, 6:32am

Re: Europe July.????

Post by francovendee »

pq, I think you're right regarding rural v town.
I too live in the countryside👍and about half a dozen family's names are very predominant.
Our local farmer, a member of one of the largest families, may have been anti vaccine but the whole family caught it hence he didn't get a chance to decline. He told me he felt a bit poorly for a few days but still looked after his farm. His brother was much worse and was still in hospital when we last spoke.
I read somewhere that reluctance to take up the vaccine was mostly in the under 25's. Also a lot of country people are wary but haven't decided one way or the other.
It is a personal choice but I took the opportunity and had my first in Feb.
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