Europe 2021

Cycle-touring, Expeditions, Adventures, Major cycle routes NOT LeJoG (see other special board)
PaulaT
Posts: 218
Joined: 20 Dec 2018, 6:41pm
Location: Staffordshire

Re: Europe July.????

Post by PaulaT »

francovendee wrote: 14 Jun 2021, 7:41am I hope you're right about keeping the Delta variant out, I somehow doubt it as it as small numbers of cases are already in mainland Europe.
In France we have cases not 60 km away and the speed this can spread makes me think the upsurge in cases in the UK will be mirrored across Europe. I hope I'm wrong.
There's definitely a huge risk of it spiralling out of control. And most EU countries are still very vulnerable due to their shall we say leisurely start to their vaccination programmes. And high vaccine hesitancy rates ine EU countries should be a worry to you too. I've read a figure of, EU-wide, 27% saying they'll refuse a vaccine. That may have not been a massive problem with the original strain. The R0 for that was estimated at around 3.5 I believe which means you need immunity in about 72% of the population so you can just achieve that without the refusers. But for something like Delta which is at least twice as infectious (so lets assume an R0 of 7) you need 85% population immunity and unless you politicians, who fuelled the anti-vax fires for their own ends earlier this year, can change an awful lot of minds then you could find yourselves in a poor situation as we go inti Autumn and Winter.
willem jongman
Posts: 2750
Joined: 7 Jan 2008, 4:16pm

Re: Europe July.????

Post by willem jongman »

Yes the more people get vaccinated the better. In the Netherlands 84% say they want to be vaccinated or have already been vaccinated. It looks as if when people really get the offer far more decide to have it after all, and particularly now that it offers far more freedom of movement.
I am really not sure what anti vaccination politicians you are referring to. I don't know any apart from some at the loony fringe.
willem jongman
Posts: 2750
Joined: 7 Jan 2008, 4:16pm

Re: Europe July.????

Post by willem jongman »

German numbers are here: https://impfdashboard.de/ By today, Germany will have vaccinated half the population at least once and about 27% completely, but that is everyone, including babies and children. I don't have German age distribution data at hand, but my hunch is that two thirds of the over 18s will have had one dose, and some 40% both.
Hugo de Jonge, the Dutch minister of public health and deputy prime minister encourages each successive birth year cohort on his Twitter account: https://twitter.com/hugodejonge?lang=en 1994 this morning. My daughter is expecting an invitation tonight or tomorrow morning and she cannot wait.
The new Dutch numbers are just in: another big decline of about 15% in just one day: https://coronadashboard.rijksoverheid.n ... ste-mensen New hospital admissions are also down significantly, with none in large parts of the country.
francovendee
Posts: 3145
Joined: 5 May 2009, 6:32am

Re: Europe July.????

Post by francovendee »

PaulaT, I think the slow start to vaccinating EU nations was largely the result of a lack of vaccine. Now the supply is much improved and we're all safer as a result.
willem jongman
Posts: 2750
Joined: 7 Jan 2008, 4:16pm

Re: Europe July.????

Post by willem jongman »

Indeed.The Pfizer/Biontech factories continue to beat their previous output. The result is a rapidly accellerating vaccination drive with a weekly record of 1.67 million doses in the Netherlands.
PaulaT
Posts: 218
Joined: 20 Dec 2018, 6:41pm
Location: Staffordshire

Re: Europe July.????

Post by PaulaT »

willem jongman wrote: 14 Jun 2021, 3:07pm German numbers are here: https://impfdashboard.de/ By today, Germany will have vaccinated half the population at least once and about 27% completely, but that is everyone, including babies and children. I don't have German age distribution data at hand, but my hunch is that two thirds of the over 18s will have had one dose, and some 40% both.
According to this EU site

https://qap.ecdc.europa.eu/public/exten ... uptake-tab

For over 18s, Germany has vaccinated 54.7% with one dose and 25.6% with two as of today. That UK figures as of today are 79.2% with one dose and 56.9% with two.
PaulaT
Posts: 218
Joined: 20 Dec 2018, 6:41pm
Location: Staffordshire

Re: Europe July.????

Post by PaulaT »

willem jongman wrote: 14 Jun 2021, 2:59pm I am really not sure what anti vaccination politicians you are referring to. I don't know any apart from some at the loony fringe.
It's not that the politicians are anti-vax but the sh*i-storm over AZ which they whipped up in an attempt to cover up their own incompetence was a perfect gift for the anti-vax loonies and it looks like their rhetoric has significantly damaged public confidence in the safety of all the vaccines.
PaulaT
Posts: 218
Joined: 20 Dec 2018, 6:41pm
Location: Staffordshire

Re: Europe July.????

Post by PaulaT »

francovendee wrote: 14 Jun 2021, 5:16pm PaulaT, I think the slow start to vaccinating EU nations was largely the result of a lack of vaccine. Now the supply is much improved and we're all safer as a result.
The EMA didn't do you any favours either. They had the same phase three data at the same time as the UK,USA and did yet did nothing with it for weeks which put you about 4 weeks behind us in starting your vaccinations. I'm glad to hear that vaccine supplies are improving. Supply was always going to be a limiting factor early on as it takes a long time to build up capacity.
willem jongman
Posts: 2750
Joined: 7 Jan 2008, 4:16pm

Re: Europe July.????

Post by willem jongman »

Well, the UK was primarily successful initially because it carted off all early vaccine production, then its government claimed it was the succesful product of Brexit, and raised their middle finger to the rest of the world. This was in sharp contrast to the EU, where mutual solidarity is an existential principle. In the meantime, the EU has actually built up massive manufacturing capacity, for the EU, but also for the rest of the world. Conversely, and for all its bravado, the UK has remained a net importer of EU vaccines. And the vaccination race continues: we expect to have everyone over 18 who wants to vaccinated at least once by early July, and many already with a second dose.
As for our politicians and the AZ vaccine - yes they were a bit muddled and overly careful, but as a scientist I was happy to have it because I could have it three weeks before the Biontech/Pfizer vaccine and that more than made up for the risk of taking AZ, but the concerns about the AZ vaccine were and are genuine and justified, particularly now that we have better alternatives in abundance. And no, I don't think this had any effect on the vaccine loonies, on the contrary (do you actually read European newspapers etc?). I think the whole thing was about reassuring the people who hesitated, and I think this was successful. But the proof of the pudding remains in the eating. There are indeed a lot of wierdos around. The good news is that Dutch epidemiologists believe that we will have reached herd immunity around mid July.
Last edited by willem jongman on 14 Jun 2021, 7:37pm, edited 1 time in total.
willem jongman
Posts: 2750
Joined: 7 Jan 2008, 4:16pm

Re: Europe July.????

Post by willem jongman »

And for Dutch data on variants (sorry, this one only in Dutch, but the table should be clear): https://www.rivm.nl/coronavirus-covid-1 ... /varianten
User avatar
mjr
Posts: 20297
Joined: 20 Jun 2011, 7:06pm
Location: Norfolk or Somerset, mostly
Contact:

Re: Europe July.????

Post by mjr »

PaulaT wrote: 14 Jun 2021, 6:45pm The EMA didn't do you any favours either. They had the same phase three data at the same time as the UK,USA and did yet did nothing with it for weeks which put you about 4 weeks behind us in starting your vaccinations.
In reality, AZ requested UK approval in November 2020, which was granted on 30 December, but only requested the EMA approval in January 2021, which started its review on 12 Jan and approved the vaccine on 29 Jan. So the EMA acted more quickly than the UK's MHRA and it looks like most of the delay was AZ not asking for approval (conspiracy theorists apply here), but the EMA may have been able to learn from the MHRA's work.
MJR, mostly pedalling 3-speed roadsters. KL+West Norfolk BUG incl social easy rides http://www.klwnbug.co.uk
All the above is CC-By-SA and no other implied copyright license to Cycle magazine.
willem jongman
Posts: 2750
Joined: 7 Jan 2008, 4:16pm

Re: Europe July.????

Post by willem jongman »

Indeed, there was a lot of discussion at the time on why AZ did not submit. Anyway, we are almost done with them. I will have my second AZ shot in a few weeks time, and that will be it for AZ in the Netherlands and I am sure most other EU countries.
willem jongman
Posts: 2750
Joined: 7 Jan 2008, 4:16pm

Re: Europe July.????

Post by willem jongman »

That ecd data site looks like it is a bit behind compared to the official German data that I linked to. But anyway, these are moving targets and the UK is still ahead, but Germany may well overtake it by the time of the final round of second doses, if not before. And that is all down to EU coordinated manufacturing capability (Thierry Breton has done a great job).
willem jongman
Posts: 2750
Joined: 7 Jan 2008, 4:16pm

Re: Europe July.????

Post by willem jongman »

By now about two thirds of the over 18 have been vaccinated at least once in the Netherlands and about a third twice. My 25 year old daughter can schedule her appointment tomorrow morning. Only seven more birth years to go, at about one birth year a day. Give a week to have the actual jab, and we will be done by the beginning of July, as planned.
Last edited by willem jongman on 14 Jun 2021, 9:44pm, edited 1 time in total.
willem jongman
Posts: 2750
Joined: 7 Jan 2008, 4:16pm

Re: Europe July.????

Post by willem jongman »

I just discovered why the German percentage of vaccinated over 18s is so low: they have an older population than e.g. the Netherlands. So they still have some way to go. But under Merkel's leadership they will get there sooner rather than later.
Post Reply