Europe 2021

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willem jongman
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Re: Europe 2021

Post by willem jongman »

Face masks, restrictions on bars and restaurants etc, effective contact tracing, social distancing rules, strict rules on how to deal with infections in schools, including ventilation systems in school buildings.
Vaccination is the key ingredient of course, but the UK experience shows that more is necessary. I am afraid this will soon be borne out by the Dutch experience as well. On 25 September most restrictions were lifted, although accompanied by the mandatory use of the Digital Covid Certificate in many public places. Since that day the decline in infections and hospital admissions has halted, and the numbers are slowly creeping up again, although for now only very slowly. If I were in charge I would mandate the use of the EU Digital Covid Certificate in higher education, perhaps in secundary education (vaccination has been possible for all over 12s for quite a while now), and in at least some occupations.
simonhill
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Re: Europe 2021

Post by simonhill »

PDQ Mobile wrote: 4 Oct 2021, 6:31pm Thanks for the replies.
A mystery then, or at least "not fully explained".

The discrepancy seems quite large.
I have heard it said that we test more than most other countries. Don't know if it is true.

You are right that there was much (political) fanfare about how well our jabs were going. Unfortunately the impetus has faltered and we are now well down the list of % of population jabbed.
willem jongman
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Re: Europe 2021

Post by willem jongman »

I am not sure the UK is really down on the list for vaccinations. From what I can see most west European countries are in roughly the same ballpark, although largely with the slightly more effective Pfizer/Biontech and Moderna vaccines. As for testing frequency, this obviously makes some difference to the recorded infection rate, but so do non symptomatic cases. In the end I think the hospitalization rate is probably the best metric unless a country's hospital system is inadequate or alternatively lacks good care outside the hospital. So in the end, and whatever the measurement details, the UK is doing very badly compared to other roughly similar countries. The jury is still out to explain the difference.
Vorpal
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Re: Europe 2021

Post by Vorpal »

PDQ Mobile wrote: 4 Oct 2021, 2:55pm why are case numbers so high in the UK?

After all the fanfare and jingoism about us being better than Europe at vaccinating, today's grafic doesn't look so bright.
I can't understand why it should be given the numbers who have had the virus and the numbers who are fully vaccinated.
Anyone hazard a guess or even have a well based explanation?
DA3A516F-F588-40D4-ADA8-1AF769492378.jpeg
There are a few things here... Firstly, the UK isn't *better* than Europe. The UK is ahead of the EU average, but that is heavily impacted by countries like Romania which are only 30% vaccinated. Many European countries (Spain, Portugal, Italy, Denmark, Ireland, Finland, Norway, France, Belgium, the Netherlands...) are ahead of the UK in terms of percentage of the population vaccinated. (edit: data here https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations )

But I also think that the UK has failed to address some key areas... poor ventilation, especially in schools, combined with crowded classrooms, and an initial decision not to vaccinate children have impacted covid transmission. Pollution, and public transport that is over capacity in large cities probably don't help, either.

My basis for comparison is schools in Norway, at least, have room for social distancing, and most kids over the age of 12 are now vaccinated. There are guidelines in Norway about how much indoor and outdoor space per student https://www-helsedirektoratet-no.transl ... tr_pto=nui (in case the translate doesn't work here is the original https://www.helsedirektoratet.no/veiled ... innredning ), and the ventilation systems have to meet modern standards, even in old buildings. I won't say that the guidelines are 100% followed, but when school conditions start to become crowded due to population growth in a particular area, they either adjust the boundaries, extend the school, or both. Not meeting guidelines, especially if it's a problem for several schools in a given area, is a very strong argument for funding to build an extension / new building. Several of the schools in my area have had extensions / new buildings recently.

School conditions & requirements are similar in the other Nordic countries, but I do not know the details or guidelines for the other countries.
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PDQ Mobile
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Re: Europe 2021

Post by PDQ Mobile »

Vorpal wrote: 5 Oct 2021, 9:08am
PDQ Mobile wrote: 4 Oct 2021, 2:55pm why are case numbers so high in the UK?

After all the fanfare and jingoism about us being better than Europe at vaccinating, today's grafic doesn't look so bright.
I can't understand why it should be given the numbers who have had the virus and the numbers who are fully vaccinated.
Anyone hazard a guess or even have a well based explanation?
DA3A516F-F588-40D4-ADA8-1AF769492378.jpeg
There are a few things here... Firstly, the UK isn't *better* than Europe. The UK is ahead of the EU average, but that is heavily impacted by countries like Romania which are only 30% vaccinated. Many European countries (Spain, Portugal, Italy, Denmark, Ireland, Finland, Norway, France, Belgium, the Netherlands...) are ahead of the UK in terms of percentage of the population vaccinated. (edit: data here https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations )

But I also think that the UK has failed to address some key areas... poor ventilation, especially in schools, combined with crowded classrooms, and an initial decision not to vaccinate children have impacted covid transmission. Pollution, and public transport that is over capacity in large cities probably don't help, either.

My basis for comparison is schools in Norway, at least, have room for social distancing, and most kids over the age of 12 are now vaccinated. There are guidelines in Norway about how much indoor and outdoor space per student https://www-helsedirektoratet-no.transl ... tr_pto=nui (in case the translate doesn't work here is the original https://www.helsedirektoratet.no/veiled ... innredning ), and the ventilation systems have to meet modern standards, even in old buildings. I won't say that the guidelines are 100% followed, but when school conditions start to become crowded due to population growth in a particular area, they either adjust the boundaries, extend the school, or both. Not meeting guidelines, especially if it's a problem for several schools in a given area, is a very strong argument for funding to build an extension / new building. Several of the schools in my area have had extensions / new buildings recently.

School conditions & requirements are similar in the other Nordic countries, but I do not know the details or guidelines for the other countries.
I merely said about "better" what was all too common in the statements of the Govt and its Press, particularly early on.

I knew that it wasn't the case.

There are some good points but whether they stand much scrutiny is less than certain.
Overcrowded public transport is a common feature of many European cities for example.
And I guess overcrowded schools too.

Wales has some of the highest vaccination rates anywhere, yet is almost also right up there in terms of infection rates with some of the old Eastern Bloc countries where vaccination levels (and uptake) are low.

Though hospitalisations are somewhat lower.
However there is a demographic influence in that.
We have known, almost since the beginning, that, very very thankfully, young people and very young children show far less serious illness.
willem jongman
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Re: Europe 2021

Post by willem jongman »

Face masks are still mandatory on Dutch public transport. Ventilation standards have been raised for Dutch schools, but I am not sure how much has actually been done to meet them. My wife told me that in the university classrooms where she has been teaching thus far the windows have been wide open, but that is getting chilly. Of our 12-17 year olds 57% have had a first dose, and 51% are fully vaccinated. Of the 18-30 year olds 68% have had a first dose and 65% are fully vaccinated. These numbers are still going up, but only slowly. However, such vaccination rates may vary strongly between social groups. My son, who is a student, tells me that he does not know anyone who has not been vaccinated, and the very low infection rate in our (university) town with large numbers of students seems to confirm this.
Quickly building new schools is impractical in a densely populated country like ours. Thus far, drinking in bars has largely been an outdoor thing, but this is obviously changing now that we are moving into Autumn. For indoor eating and drinking the EU Digital Covid Certificate is used to control access. I know UK pub life only too well and I know pubs are often packed. In short, proclaiming 'freedom day' was probably a daft idea, and I am worried that our conservative government's recent decision to similarly lift many restrictions may turn out to be equally unwise. On the other hand, the people who now get badly ill are almost invariably unvaccinated (apart from a small number of people with impaired immune systems). How much longer do we want to restrict the lives of those who were sensible enough to get vaccinated to protect those who denied the science?
Last edited by willem jongman on 5 Oct 2021, 10:23am, edited 1 time in total.
ossie
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Re: Europe 2021

Post by ossie »

PDQ Mobile wrote: 4 Oct 2021, 2:55pm why are case numbers so high in the UK?

After all the fanfare and jingoism about us being better than Europe at vaccinating, today's grafic doesn't look so bright.
I can't understand why it should be given the numbers who have had the virus and the numbers who are fully vaccinated.
Anyone hazard a guess or even have a well based explanation?
DA3A516F-F588-40D4-ADA8-1AF769492378.jpeg
Just a few thoughts. In my experience of travelling to numerous UK major cities / towns over many years but notably since July of this year the following. Overcrowded public transport, trains, tubes and buses where many cannot be bothered to wear masks. The usual massive UK pub culture and hospitality Industry is almost in overdrive it appears - likewise no mask wearing and little social responsibility. Sporting events such as football where nearly a million people a week are back in grounds, many using the same overcrowded public transport to get there and back, 99% not wearing masks in the concourse or indoor bar areas. Shopping centres are rammed, again little social responsibility.

Demographics, a larger than average percentage of overcrowded multi occupancy housing in various areas with covid death rates intrinsically linked to some of these conditions. We are also one of the most obese nations in Europe allegedly.

In relation to schools we have the largest class size in Europe in primary education (but apparently not in secondary).

Death rates per pop, we're 14th in Europe behind Italy and marginally ahead of Spain and France. The stand out performer of the larger nations is Germany but they have been from day 1. Having lived there and visited many times over the years I can fully understand the difference between them and the UK many of which I've highlighted above. Lets not forget some of the farcical decisions made by the Government in relation to managing this crisis that managed to embed the virus, the handling of the delta variant etc.
willem jongman
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Re: Europe 2021

Post by willem jongman »

Indeed. Germany may have a somewhat lower vaccination rate (principally in former East Germany) but mask wearing, contact tracing etc are exemplary, and it would appear successful. The Robert Koch Institute is currently updating the numbers, so I cannot access their regional distribution data, but I would expect East Germany to score worse with infections as well.
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Re: Europe 2021

Post by Vorpal »

PDQ Mobile wrote: 5 Oct 2021, 10:05am There are some good points but whether they stand much scrutiny is less than certain.
Overcrowded public transport is a common feature of many European cities for example.
And I guess overcrowded schools too.
Well, it's really hard to measure 'overcrowded', and next to impossible to make comparisons between cities. Consequently, people do PhDs on how to analyse public transport capacity & crowding, and it's largely ignored, in practice because it's so complex. Attempts mainly look at individual cities & route capacities, transfer & entry data (i.e. from automatic card systems), or how many people have access to public transport by stations per capita, or people who live / work within a certain distance of transport stops.... But it's extremely difficult to get data on things like public transport occupancy rates or capacity per capita. I really only have my personal experience to go on. I've used public transport in various places in the UK, and Europe. I used to travel quite a bit for business, so have used lots of systems at peak times, including other major cities. The Paris Metro is the only place I've ever been that even comes close to the sort of crowding I've experienced on peak time London tube trains.

As for schools, I know that a number of countries other than the UK have published guidelines. I don't know details for most, but I do not that 'high range' of indoor area per student (2.0 square metres) is the *minimum* in Norway and Denmark. In addition, the guidelines for England and Wales do not have any play space requirement per se. They do have total school area guidelines, but the requirement do not separate space intended for use as playing fields, physical education, and play. Additionally, my experience is that schools, at least in some areas of England are more likely to operate long term under crowded conditions. Our village school in England, and most neighbouring village schools were over-subscribed when we lived there. One of them, out the 5 that I was familiar with, got new facilities in the last couple of years. While in our area in Norway, they used birth rates & housing development to predict school needs & began building new facilities in the area a few years ago. Our closest school exceeded its capacity for 2 years prior to the new facilities being available. They would normally have shifted some starting students to other nearby schools, but anticipating the new classrooms being available, they used demountables for a couple of years.

Both new and old classrooms in the schools I've been in in England are about half the size of classrooms in our local schools in Norway. I have been in schools with smaller classrooms in older buildings in Norway. But, they limit the class sizes more. A classroom equivalent to those in our village school in England will typically have maximum 15 students, plus 2 teachers in Norway.
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willem jongman
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Re: Europe 2021

Post by willem jongman »

The small rise in Dutch infections and hospitalizations does indeed seem to continue. Expert opinion provisionally points to the reopening of schools and perhaps work related events/parties.
PDQ Mobile
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Re: Europe 2021

Post by PDQ Mobile »

Vorpal wrote: 5 Oct 2021, 12:08pm
PDQ Mobile wrote: 5 Oct 2021, 10:05am There are some good points but whether they stand much scrutiny is less than certain.
Overcrowded public transport is a common feature of many European cities for example.
And I guess overcrowded schools too.
Well, it's really hard to measure 'overcrowded', and next to impossible to make comparisons between cities. Consequently, people do PhDs on how to analyse public transport capacity & crowding, and it's largely ignored, in practice because it's so complex. Attempts mainly look at individual cities & route capacities, transfer & entry data (i.e. from automatic card systems), or how many people have access to public transport by stations per capita, or people who live / work within a certain distance of transport stops.... But it's extremely difficult to get data on things like public transport occupancy rates or capacity per capita. I really only have my personal experience to go on. I've used public transport in various places in the UK, and Europe. I used to travel quite a bit for business, so have used lots of systems at peak times, including other major cities. The Paris Metro is the only place I've ever been that even comes close to the sort of crowding I've experienced on peak time London tube trains.

As for schools, I know that a number of countries other than the UK have published guidelines. I don't know details for most, but I do not that 'high range' of indoor area per student (2.0 square metres) is the *minimum* in Norway and Denmark. In addition, the guidelines for England and Wales do not have any play space requirement per se. They do have total school area guidelines, but the requirement do not separate space intended for use as playing fields, physical education, and play. Additionally, my experience is that schools, at least in some areas of England are more likely to operate long term under crowded conditions. Our village school in England, and most neighbouring village schools were over-subscribed when we lived there. One of them, out the 5 that I was familiar with, got new facilities in the last couple of years. While in our area in Norway, they used birth rates & housing development to predict school needs & began building new facilities in the area a few years ago. Our closest school exceeded its capacity for 2 years prior to the new facilities being available. They would normally have shifted some starting students to other nearby schools, but anticipating the new classrooms being available, they used demountables for a couple of years.

Both new and old classrooms in the schools I've been in in England are about half the size of classrooms in our local schools in Norway. I have been in schools with smaller classrooms in older buildings in Norway. But, they limit the class sizes more. A classroom equivalent to those in our village school in England will typically have maximum 15 students, plus 2 teachers in Norway.
So in a "nutshell" you consider the reason for higher infection rates is years of underinvestment in public transport and education?
It may well be a factor. Best tell Johnson.

I have been on very crowded trains and buses in several European countries over the years.
London (and SE) is actually faring less badly at the moment.

And Wales is pretty rural in many places at least, but cases in some areas of very high vaccination levels are a great deal higher than much of Europe.
It is a puzzle.
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Re: Europe 2021

Post by Vorpal »

PDQ Mobile wrote: 5 Oct 2021, 5:45pm
So in a "nutshell" you consider the reason for higher infection rates is years of underinvestment in public transport and education?
It may well be a factor.
That's not what I said. I said that the UK has failed to address some key areas. Those are things I have observed.
There are obviously other factors. You asked
Anyone hazard a guess or even have a well based explanation?
so I was offering some possible explanations.

We know that covid spreads better indoors & in poorly ventilated conditions. We know that the UK initially decided not to vaccinate children. it seems logical that infections would increase at school start. Similarly, even if public transport usage is still below pre-covid levels, resptrictions and mask requirements were lifted earlier in the UK than elsewhere.

Other possible factors include, but are not limited to: fewer health & job protections for service workers (i.e. people working sick because they won't get paid, risk losing their jobs, etc.), lifting restrictions on pubs & social events, and others.
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PDQ Mobile
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Re: Europe 2021

Post by PDQ Mobile »

Vorpal wrote: 5 Oct 2021, 7:25pm
PDQ Mobile wrote: 5 Oct 2021, 5:45pm
So in a "nutshell" you consider the reason for higher infection rates is years of underinvestment in public transport and education?
It may well be a factor.
That's not what I said. I said that the UK has failed to address some key areas. Those are things I have observed.
There are obviously other factors. You asked
Anyone hazard a guess or even have a well based explanation?
so I was offering some possible explanations.

We know that covid spreads better indoors & in poorly ventilated conditions. We know that the UK initially decided not to vaccinate children. it seems logical that infections would increase at school start. Similarly, even if public transport usage is still below pre-covid levels, resptrictions and mask requirements were lifted earlier in the UK than elsewhere.

Other possible factors include, but are not limited to: fewer health & job protections for service workers (i.e. people working sick because they won't get paid, risk losing their jobs, etc.), lifting restrictions on pubs & social events, and others.
Well large class sizes and overcrowded trains etc are a direct result of underfunding IMO.

Mask requirements in shops and on public transport were not lifted in Wales all summer.

Different vaccine efficacy barely gets a mention.
Vorpal
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Re: Europe 2021

Post by Vorpal »

PDQ Mobile wrote: 5 Oct 2021, 7:38pm
Well large class sizes and overcrowded trains etc are a direct result of underfunding IMO.

Mask requirements in shops and on public transport were not lifted in Wales all summer.

Different vaccine efficacy barely gets a mention.
I don't disagree, though, there are other factors in both class sizes and public transport capacity, including physical limitations, policy, social acceptability.

I didn't know about restrictions continuing in Wales.

I'm not sure how much difference vaccine efficacy makes, and it's not something that I have investigated.

The keep changing the 2nd vaccine dates in Norway, when new research comes out. Mr V. had his 2nd injection rescheduled 3 times. I could only hope that they were using a computer algorithm to rearrange everyone's vaccination dates.
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Jdsk
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Re: Europe 2021

Post by Jdsk »

Jdsk wrote: 4 Oct 2021, 3:01pm
PDQ Mobile wrote: 4 Oct 2021, 2:55pmAnyone hazard a guess or even have a well based explanation?
DA3A516F-F588-40D4-ADA8-1AF769492378.jpeg
It's not fully explained.

Commonly discussed factors include:
Poor health before the outbreak, especially connected to inequalities.
Poor living conditions, especially connected to inequalities.
Weakness of non pharmaceutical interventions.

But case definition might come into it. So it's worth looking at negativity rates in testing, and at other metrics in addition to "cases".
"Why is England doing worse against Covid than its European neighbours?":
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... rope-covid

Jonathan
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