willem jongman wrote: ↑8 Jun 2021, 4:26pm
We are clearly not yet there, but equally this may not take that much longer either, at least for some countries or regions. Other than continuing with the general vaccination drive, we need to focus on cluster of low vaccination rates. So I was surprised to see that the contrations in the UK of the delta variant do not get more targeted attention. But in the UK it may well be too late for that already.
Willem, if you google you will find there was a lot of controversy over increasing the vac supplies to the UK outbreak areas in the NW. It was hard to follow, but I think local NHS wanted more supplies, but the central authority refused it on flimsy ground, related to a low uptake from the locals I think.
Bit of a sad mess :(
I saw the reports about the request being denied but also wondered if it was possible given the vaccine stocks and that appointments are booked for some time ahead. I could envisage a situation where diverting vaccine to one area might mean cancelling appointments in other areas as they would not have their stocks. But I guess a lot then depends on what the stock situation is relation to next scheduled delivery, etc. (i.e. is current vaccine stocks are all allocated to existing appointments and no deliveries to cover additional surge areas). But that is guesswork/possibility and I have no special knowledge about vaccine stocks/schedules.
I'm seriously beginning to wonder about the news coverage in Europe about what is happening here in the UK. I live in an area that had a couple of hot spots of the delta virus. We have had additional testing and additional vaccination centres opened with pretty much anyone able to get a vaccine, perhaps as a result of this the numbers here are now dropping again.
I know - sad and messy indeed. There was an initial effort to address the spike, and then it stopped. I fail to understand why there was no stock for such emergencies.
Andy: let me tell you one thing: nobody in the EU seems to care very much about the UK anymore. I do, because I have happily lived there for years, and have many good friends in the UK. So I get all my information from UK sources. By and large that is usually the best way. So I look at French sources for France, German ones for Germany, Italian ones for Italy, etc. People in the UK may want to do the same rather than rely on the British press for EU coverage.
In the Netherlands it is birth year 1988 from today. Total number of first and second vaccinations is now 11 million, with 1.5 million expected for this week. The infection rate is decling rapidly, with for example only 6 per 100k in my own town and 8.4 nationally. The vast majority of people over 70 have now had the second dose and it shows in hospitalization rates.
Birth year 1991 from this morning in the Netherlands, plus further relaxations for travel within the EU. Infection and hospitalization rates are plummeting. The sad news is that there will now be a mandatory quarantine for travellers from the UK (plus negative test). The spread of the delta variant is just too troubling.
I am afraid some of it is good and some of it not. In the Netherlands it is the turn of generation 1992 today to schedule an appointment for a Biontech/Pfizer jab. In addition, from 21 June all 18+ people can choose to get a Janssen jab instead. Since this is a one shot vaccine, these people will be fully vaccinated a month or so earlier (but not as well protected). Being offically fully vaccinated matters for the EU Green Certificate, because the rule there will be that it turns green two weeks after the moment you are fully vaccinated, although individual countries can set lower standards. For those who are not yet fully vaccinated or can demonstate a previous infection, the standard requirement will be a recent negative test. However, this will be waved for so-called green countries, where infection rates are very low. For now, there are no green countries, but this is likely to change, and all the more so since the norms to qualify as green have been lowered somewhat.
For travellers from the UK this may make little difference in the near future, with countries like Germany and the Netherlands classifying the UK as a very high risk country due to the Delta variant. So for now the lack of UK integration with the EU Green Certificate will have no practical implications either. But one day it will.
Tangled Metal wrote: ↑8 Jun 2021, 10:12am
I wouldn't say the delta variant is running rings around the vaccine as that's technically not true its got a high infection rate in areas of low vaccine take up.
A single shot of AZ vaccine is 40% effective, two shots about 85% a fortnight after the second. Pfizer a bit better, dunno for Moderna. Delta also has an R0 of ~6 as opposed to 3 for the original strain, and from what I've read can be passed on much more easily, possibly between people brushing past each other. Single-shot complacency, and the young not getting much more than a bad cold they can tough out, help it along.
Again, the fewer UK voices I hear over here this summer the happier I'll be.
Psamathe wrote: ↑8 Jun 2021, 4:44pm
I saw the reports about the request being denied but also wondered if it was possible given the vaccine stocks and that appointments are booked for some time ahead. I could envisage a situation where diverting vaccine to one area might mean cancelling appointments in other areas as they would not have their stocks. But I guess a lot then depends on what the stock situation is relation to next scheduled delivery, etc. (i.e. is current vaccine stocks are all allocated to existing appointments and no deliveries to cover additional surge areas). But that is guesswork/possibility and I have no special knowledge about vaccine stocks/schedules.
Ian
The denial was because the government are following the recommendations of the JCVI. Surge vaccination is in any case total cloud cuckoo thinking. It takes two weeks after vaccination for any protective effective to develop and a good three weeks to get the full effect. Even then one dose isn't really sufficient against delta so there needs to be the second dose given and another wait of a couple of weeks after that for maximum protection. With cases doubling roughly every week that's a long time to wait for the cavalry to come riding over that hill...
Psamathe wrote: ↑8 Jun 2021, 4:44pm
I saw the reports about the request being denied but also wondered if it was possible given the vaccine stocks and that appointments are booked for some time ahead. I could envisage a situation where diverting vaccine to one area might mean cancelling appointments in other areas as they would not have their stocks. But I guess a lot then depends on what the stock situation is relation to next scheduled delivery, etc. (i.e. is current vaccine stocks are all allocated to existing appointments and no deliveries to cover additional surge areas). But that is guesswork/possibility and I have no special knowledge about vaccine stocks/schedules.
Ian
The denial was because the government are following the recommendations of the JCVI. Surge vaccination is in any case total cloud cuckoo thinking. It takes two weeks after vaccination for any protective effective to develop and a good three weeks to get the full effect. Even then one dose isn't really sufficient against delta so there needs to be the second dose given and another wait of a couple of weeks after that for maximum protection. With cases doubling roughly every week that's a long time to wait for the cavalry to come riding over that hill...
That's what I was thinking. Start surge vaccination and the delay in their effect means the surge will be long over before it helps or the NHS in those areas will be completely swamped. And in some respects demands for "surge vaccination" (which would not help short term) may detract from the saturation testing, self-isolation, etc. because the public message is changing and being presented as the Gov. not helping properly ...
In some areas (like my own) there has been an element of "Surge vaccinations" along with an increase in testing. But my understanding is that this has been mainly focused on either getting folks that could already have had a first dose to do so (especially if they are in a vulnerable group) and in accelerating the second dose for those that have had the first. Both actions seem to make some sense to me. Although the dose may not have an immediate effect it may help reduce the ongoing increase and will hopefully also reduce the impact of any infection on the NHS. In this area, (which was at one point the highest per 100000 in England), the efforts seem to have stabilised things and the rate has actually dropped, in the mean time the rates in many other places have increased meaning we are now much lower in the list of regional infection rates.
In my own case I had a knock on the door yesterday lunchtime to invite me to have a PCR test. The test kit was picked up an hour later and I got the result via text message this morning (negative).
The Netherlands continue to beat their own records: yesterday there were 333000 vaccinations, with about two thirds of the over 18 now vaccinated with a first dose, and about a third with a second dose. The results show: only 1066 infections, i.e. about12% of what it was six weeks ago. Hospital admissions are down even more, with only about a third of what it was a week ago.
We are still not where we should be, but once the recent vaccinations of the 30-50 year olds begin to provide protection, the numbers should be even better. It also looks like we managed to keep the delta variant out, at least for the time being.
The EU Green Certificate should permit travel for many from July.
I hope you're right about keeping the Delta variant out, I somehow doubt it as it as small numbers of cases are already in mainland Europe.
In France we have cases not 60 km away and the speed this can spread makes me think the upsurge in cases in the UK will be mirrored across Europe. I hope I'm wrong.
I hope I am right. In the Netherlands the numbers have been very low and stable, and experts are not worried thus far. The challenge is to vaccinate enough people to stop it in its tracks.
