Europe 2021

[al_yrpal]

With the news that only 60% of the French population are willing to be be vaccinated I dont believe the EU is a safe place to go any time soon. Staycation in our Camper for us avoiding campsites as much as possible. Britstops is our plan.

Al

[willem jongman]

RIght now, I would indeed still be quite cautious, but things are changing rapidly. France remains to be seen, but some 43% of their population of all ages have had a first jab already, in Germany 45%, the Netherlands 40% and Italy 44%. With 52% for a first dose the UK is still ahead, but not by that much anymore. What matters for holiday planning is not so much current numbers but expected numbers for the summer. By that time many EU countries may well be ahead of the UK, given current trends. And all over Europe infection unmbers are plummeting, as do hospital admissions and ICU admissions.

[willem jongman]

Up to date numbers for the Netherlands: https://coronadashboard.government.nl/l ... accinaties

[gloomyandy]

France remains to be seen, but some 43% of their population of all ages have had a first jab already, in Germany 45%, the Netherlands 40% and Italy 44%. With 52% for a first dose the UK is still ahead, but not by that much anymore.

I'm not sure what your UK data is based on but this dataset (which seems match your other figures pretty well): https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations Shows the UK having given at least one dose to approximately 59% of the (total) population and two doses to 41%. For the Netherlands it shows 41%/20%, Germany 45%/21% and for France 42%/21%.

The official UK figures are 76.6%/52.5% but these are based on the adult, not total population (which may or may not be more realistic depending upon your views on vaccinating those under 18/16/whatever).

[willem jongman]

I don't know right now - all these datasets suffer from delayed reporting, some more than others, and more for some countries than for others. My take on the numbers for EU countries is that they are broadly similar (so no indications yet from the actual numbers that France is lagging behind) and the good news is the pretty steep upward trend. EU countries are receiving massive quantities of the Pfizer/Biontech vaccine, and ever more so. Personally and for now I think the proportion of the 18 plus population is the more relevant metric but this may change.

[Tangled Metal]

Then there's only 72% Pfizer effectiveness with 95%CI at 56-82% according to a government figures I saw from earlier this year.

So I know it's not cumulative but it it was ,72% effective on 50% of the adult population, how many infectious people in France, Netherlands, Germany?

Of course that's a more important figure on the continent because of the low confidence in the population for AZ vaccine following the political posturing of a few EU leaders. There's a higher take up of Pfizer which I once read was actually slightly below the AZ effectiveness.

It's all about confidence in the vaccine take up being sufficient to have an effect in the wider population? It probably is but it's probably also too early for the evidence to be there. Without that I wonder whether it's better to delay release of restrictions until we have enough data indicating it's safe. Every end to lockdown has ended up with a surge. We've opened up too early before. Are we potentially not learning from our mistakes????

[willem jongman]

I was vaccinated with AZ and had no problem with that but I would have preferred a modern mRNA vaccine as those clearly provide better protection and have fewer side effects. More generally I think the massive drop in infections shows that all vaccines do a very good job. Extrapolate the trend and you know where we are heading.
On the topic of relaxing restrictions I agree that it is better to err on the side of caution. This is where Boris Johnson could learn a lot from Angela Merkel.
As for infection rates, those of today were the same for the UK and the Netherlands, with a steeply downward trend in the Netherlands and a disconcertingly steep upward trend in the UK. Germany is doing significantly better than either the UK or the Netherlands and with a strong downward trend as well. That does not surprise me: I toured in Germany last summer (the only place I dared to go to) and I was impressed by the seriousness of the measures and the compliance. And for those willing to be surprised by the facts: Italy is also doing remarkably well, and better than either the UK or the Netherlands. It is one of the safest places to spend the summer.

[MartinBrice]

Boris Johnson could learn a lot from Angela Merkel

Evergreen phrase.

[francovendee]

I don't think anyone would claim staying at home is a certain way of staying safe but it certainly limits the speed that spread of new variants get around the world.
Covid passports, or certificate of vaccination, call it what you will but insisting on having one before being allowed to travel, go to bars and restaurants, in fact any place indoors where people gather seems to be a good idea to me.
Most people like to travel but at this time it's better not to.

[Oldjohnw]

I understand that UK travel policies is based around only permitting travel to those countries which voted for the UK in the Eurovision Song Contest.

[francovendee]

With the news that only 60% of the French population are willing to be be vaccinated I dont believe the EU is a safe place to go any time soon. Staycation in our Camper for us avoiding campsites as much as possible. Britstops is our plan.

Al

The figure is 60% who will or have had the vaccine. 20% say they are undecided. 20% say they won't have it.
My son went on about not fully knowing the long term effects of having the vaccine and we thought he was going to refuse to have it. A heart to heart with mum and he's now booked in for next week .
Spot on though, staying at home this years makes most sense.
My fear is Macron will swing open the doors to the free spending Brits for economic reasons. Testing and vaccination isn't a complete answer and the Delta variant is 40% more contagious than the Alpha type.

Have you still got your VW camper?

[Oldjohnw]

Not much, it seems, will stop the Brits going abroad. They then express horror and surprise when things change mid holiday.

[al_yrpal]

Franco, thanks for clarifying that. Seems to me our virus hotspots are where vaccine take up has been poor and they are desperately trying to remedy things.
The VW Camper is ready like a coiled spring I have just applied for historic vehicle status which exempts you from paying VED. It has a new carburettor and fuel pump which almost doubles the fuel economy.
My EU destination of choice is Cyprus in November but I doubt if it will happen. As for cycle touring, not in the EU this year for me.

Al

[willem jongman]

Franco, good of your wife. We had a similar thing with our daughter who was initially persuaded by the friends in her classroom not to have the HPV vaccination. She is now very glad she listened to us, and really into proper scientific argument. These crazies with their unscientific scaremongering are a growing problem, however. They are also an odd bunch, of rich alternative types on the one hand, and badly educated populists on the other hand.
The good news is that thus far vaccination seems to be progressing well. In the end, the number of people who say they will not have the vaccine is declining, and seems to decline by the time people are actually offered one. In the Netherlands the national average is 84 vaccinated or willing to be vaccinated, but in the end it was 98% for the over 70s and 93% for the 55-69s (some of whom still have to be vaccinated, so I guess this number will still go up a bit). People can now also see the effect of vaccination. So I remain optimistic.
My 25 year old daughter is to be vaccinated in about two weeks. She had originally hoped to get the Janssen vaccine, but since the use of that has now been discontinued in the Netherlands it will be Pfizer/Biontech, and she will have to wait for a second dose for full protection and the Digital Certificate turning green (unless one dose will be deemed enough for travel - there is some uncertainty about that). Our plan was to do a cycle tour in Italy, but if she wants to join us we may have to change that plan, or she may have to do a test. We shall see - it is early days.

[Audax67]

As long as the Indian/Delta variant is running rings round the vaccine in Britain, please do not come to Europe.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... complacent