Europe 2021

Cycle-touring, Expeditions, Adventures, Major cycle routes NOT LeJoG (see other special board)
willem jongman
Posts: 2750
Joined: 7 Jan 2008, 4:16pm

Re: Europe July.????

Post by willem jongman »

Apart from nutty anti vaxers there was hardly any objection against vaccinating the 12-17 year olds. By now, they have the highest infection rate, and spread the infection to parents and grandparents. So it is very worthwhile. Thus far, some 40% have had their first jab, and willingness is pretty high. Why wait for still dangerous natural infection if you can achieve protection the safe way.
slowster
Moderator
Posts: 4612
Joined: 7 Jul 2017, 10:37am

Re: Europe July.????

Post by slowster »

MrsHJ wrote: 27 Jul 2021, 5:53pm That sounds pretty sensible. Unfortunately we are here (see quote) vis a vis 12-17 year olds. Not sure why there’s a sociologist on what I thought was a medical committee but the COVID cases are now very substantially in the teens and young twenties so difficult to see it coming properly under control without vaccinating 12-17 year olds.
JVCI's statement here on the issue: https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... -july-2021
Any decision on deployment of vaccines must be made on the basis that the benefits of vaccination outweigh the risks to those people who are vaccinated.
At this time, JCVI is of the view that the health benefits of universal vaccination in children and young people below the age of 18 years do not outweigh the potential risks.
If the percentage of the population that needs to have been vaccinated (or have antibodies due to previous infection) to achieve herd immunity is so high that it can only be achieved if 12-17 year olds are also vaccinated (likely the case now with the higher transmissibility of the Delta variant), but the evidence continues to indicate that the benefits of vaccination do not outweigh the potential risks to them, I suspect that the JVCI will come under pressure from some scientists on SAGE (i.e. those who are not doctors committed to medical ethics) and from the Government, politicians and parts of the media to change its decision.
User avatar
MrsHJ
Posts: 1812
Joined: 19 Aug 2010, 1:03pm
Location: Dartmouth, Devon.

Re: Europe July.????

Post by MrsHJ »

The criteria appear to have been narrow and don’t really seem to include long COVID risks, school interruption etc. I’m hoping they keep this under review and move into vaccinating. I recognise that I’m no scientist. There has been quite a lot of challenge though about the decision from the medical community as it is so different to decisions in other countries.

I do have two teens, one with a complex form of autism and learning difficulties. The 17 year old is more social and we’re getting lots of isolation pings for her which isn’t much fun. I’d rather she got jabbed than got it in the middle of her a levels next year. The good news for us is that she is an older member of her year within 3 months of 18 so we’re waiting for her to get offered an appointment. The younger one hopefully will get offered a jab soon as he isn’t in great health due to his other issues and is really our concern.

Back on topic- I quite want to visit another country for a while later this summer, it will be nice to be away from a certain level of insanity in this government and it’s also good to see that other countries aren’t perfect while enjoying seriously yummy food.
roubaixtuesday
Posts: 5801
Joined: 18 Aug 2015, 7:05pm

Re: Europe July.????

Post by roubaixtuesday »

slowster wrote: 27 Jul 2021, 6:54pm
MrsHJ wrote: 27 Jul 2021, 5:53pm That sounds pretty sensible. Unfortunately we are here (see quote) vis a vis 12-17 year olds. Not sure why there’s a sociologist on what I thought was a medical committee but the COVID cases are now very substantially in the teens and young twenties so difficult to see it coming properly under control without vaccinating 12-17 year olds.
JVCI's statement here on the issue: https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... -july-2021
Any decision on deployment of vaccines must be made on the basis that the benefits of vaccination outweigh the risks to those people who are vaccinated.
At this time, JCVI is of the view that the health benefits of universal vaccination in children and young people below the age of 18 years do not outweigh the potential risks.
If the percentage of the population that needs to have been vaccinated (or have antibodies due to previous infection) to achieve herd immunity is so high that it can only be achieved if 12-17 year olds are also vaccinated (likely the case now with the higher transmissibility of the Delta variant), but the evidence continues to indicate that the benefits of vaccination do not outweigh the potential risks to them, I suspect that the JVCI will come under pressure from some scientists on SAGE (i.e. those who are not doctors committed to medical ethics) and from the Government, politicians and parts of the media to change its decision.
It's notable that the JVCI do not provide any quantified risk assessment but write qualitatively on the risks of vaccination.

They do not take account of the reality that essentially this entire cohort will almost certainly get covid if not vaccinated.

It's also notable that the quantification they provide on the risks of COVID far outweigh any potential risk if vaccinating - the PIMS risk alone gives 5 deaths per million. If vaccinating children have such a risk, dozens would have died in the US where over 10 million have been immunised.

Very poor decision IMO.
willem jongman
Posts: 2750
Joined: 7 Jan 2008, 4:16pm

Re: Europe July.????

Post by willem jongman »

Indeed a poor decision. Could it be that there is still a shortage of Biontech/Pfizer or Moderna vaccines in the UK? Are there public data on stocks and deliveries vs expected usage? I ask because here too the question about vaccinating the under 18s only surfaced once the over 18s were about to have received their first shot and we knew that we had more than plenty of doses and enough manpower. Before that moment there was always the argument about individual benefit and individual risk. Anyway, by now we know that young people too can end up in hospital or get long covid.
slowster
Moderator
Posts: 4612
Joined: 7 Jul 2017, 10:37am

Re: Europe July.????

Post by slowster »

willem jongman wrote: 27 Jul 2021, 8:45pm Indeed a poor decision.
Take it up with your fellow countryman and countrywoman.

https://www.gov.uk/government/groups/jo ... membership
willem jongman
Posts: 2750
Joined: 7 Jan 2008, 4:16pm

Re: Europe July.????

Post by willem jongman »

Maarten Postma on the JVCI teaches health economics in the medical school of my university and has been a long time advocate of wide ranging vaccination.
I found an interview with him in a Dutch tv program for children. This was from last January when vaccination was just starting. When the children asked why they were not being vaccinated he gave two reasons: at that time the vaccines had not yet been tested on children, and there was a severe shortage so those who needed them most had to be vaccinated first. However, he also said he expected that children would be vaccinated later, but not before six months from January. Clearly the JVCI decided differently, at least for now. Why?
mattheus
Posts: 5031
Joined: 29 Dec 2008, 12:57pm
Location: Western Europe

Re: Europe July.????

Post by mattheus »

roubaixtuesday wrote: 27 Jul 2021, 8:24pm It's also notable that the quantification they provide on the risks of COVID far outweigh any potential risk if vaccinating - the PIMS risk alone gives 5 deaths per million. If vaccinating children have such a risk, dozens would have died in the US where over 10 million have been immunised.

Very poor decision IMO.
"immunised" - interesting word choice.
thirdcrank
Posts: 36764
Joined: 9 Jan 2007, 2:44pm

Re: Europe July.????

Post by thirdcrank »

In the past, the guff spread by quacks has undermined some vaccination efforts.

In this instance an official organisation has sown the seeds of doubt. A decision now to offer vaccination to children will present a big hill to climb. (I've had every injection ever offered, ditto my children when they were children.)
willem jongman
Posts: 2750
Joined: 7 Jan 2008, 4:16pm

Re: Europe July.????

Post by willem jongman »

Indeed. So why?
thirdcrank
Posts: 36764
Joined: 9 Jan 2007, 2:44pm

Re: Europe July.????

Post by thirdcrank »

Because a lot of worried parents will not trust an official line that it is, after all, ok.
willem jongman
Posts: 2750
Joined: 7 Jan 2008, 4:16pm

Re: Europe July.????

Post by willem jongman »

But this messaging only makes it worse. Anyhow, not doing it vaccinates fewer people than offering it even though not all parents will let their children have it. Moreover, vaccine hesitancy in the UK is not as high as it is in some other countries.
Last week, 42% of the 12-17 year olds in the Netherlands had already had one dose, and I expect that the final number wil be at least 60%, if not rather more, so well worth it in my view. For all ages in the Netherlands, the most recent survey indicates that 90% of the population 12 years old and up have been vaccinated or want to be vaccinated.
thirdcrank
Posts: 36764
Joined: 9 Jan 2007, 2:44pm

Re: Europe July.????

Post by thirdcrank »

I hope I'm wrong but history supports what I'm saying. In this case, what's happening elsewhere is only relevant if people have been given the same messages.
mattheus
Posts: 5031
Joined: 29 Dec 2008, 12:57pm
Location: Western Europe

Re: Europe July.????

Post by mattheus »

I think the Euro is at a 1-yr low against the pound, so good time to pop over the channel :-)
User avatar
mjr
Posts: 20297
Joined: 20 Jun 2011, 7:06pm
Location: Norfolk or Somerset, mostly
Contact:

Re: Europe July.????

Post by mjr »

mattheus wrote: 28 Jul 2021, 11:33am I think the Euro is at a 1-yr low against the pound, so good time to pop over the channel :-)
It's only €1.17ish. It was €1.20 before Boris's handling of the pandemic, in Feb 2020, so we've not even regained lost ground yet.

Still, even that damage looks good compared with another recent PM: it peaked at €1.44 before Cameron's referendum.
MJR, mostly pedalling 3-speed roadsters. KL+West Norfolk BUG incl social easy rides http://www.klwnbug.co.uk
All the above is CC-By-SA and no other implied copyright license to Cycle magazine.
Post Reply