PaulaT wrote: ↑22 Jul 2021, 10:48am
But you need to take into account the different levels of per capita testing. I believe we're currently doing much more testing per capita than most EU countries. Even the mighty Germany is only doing about a third of our per capita testing.
Well, we would be, wouldn't we? The UK currently has more cases per capita than most EU countries (about 700 per million compared to EU average of 150 per million), plus no restrictions on socialising, so we have more cases and each case has more contacts to test. In light of that, it's a bit of a shocker if we're only doing 3x what Germany is, when they have only 16 cases per million.
The latest data I can find on Our World In Data is for the 7 day average up to 10th July where the UK averaged 16.63 test per 1000 people per day and the Netherlands averaged 1.55 tests per 1000 people per day.
That's not quite correct: Our World In Data reports people tested per 1000 for the Netherlands (and France and others), not the tests performed per 1000 that the UK (and Germany) does. This, combined with the UK's policies of repeatedly testing the same people and routine frequent testing of people expected to be mostly negative, makes UK-NL comparisons difficult.
MJR, mostly pedalling 3-speed roadsters. KL+West Norfolk BUG incl social easy rides http://www.klwnbug.co.uk All the above is CC-By-SA and no other implied copyright license to Cycle magazine.
Interestingly the ratio between UK and Dutch daily hospital admissions per million is roughly the same as the ratio between the daily infection numbers: the UK is almost twice as bad. However, with rapidly rising numbers that does not necessarily mean much when two entities are potentially on different parts of the curve, and when hospital admissions are some two weeks behind recorded infections. We shall see, but it is not good news, wherever you are.
For my own cycle tour this year I still have Germany on the top of my list, although my original plan to tour the Eifel is rather less feasible right now.
PaulaT wrote: ↑22 Jul 2021, 10:48am
But you need to take into account the different levels of per capita testing. I believe we're currently doing much more testing per capita than most EU countries. Even the mighty Germany is only doing about a third of our per capita testing.
Well, we would be, wouldn't we? The UK currently has more cases per capita than most EU countries (about 700 per million compared to EU average of 150 per million), plus no restrictions on socialising, so we have more cases and each case has more contacts to test. In light of that, it's a bit of a shocker if we're only doing 3x what Germany is, when they have only 16 cases per million.
The latest data I can find on Our World In Data is for the 7 day average up to 10th July where the UK averaged 16.63 test per 1000 people per day and the Netherlands averaged 1.55 tests per 1000 people per day.
That's not quite correct: Our World In Data reports people tested per 1000 for the Netherlands (and France and others), not the tests performed per 1000 that the UK (and Germany) does. This, combined with the UK's policies of repeatedly testing the same people and routine frequent testing of people expected to be mostly negative, makes UK-NL comparisons difficult.
Do the UK "tested" figures include home testing using lateral flow tests? In theory you are meant to report the results of home lateral flow results (to Gov website which then send you an e-mail confirming your result). Trouble is it's a unreliable test that can often miss infections so if those data are included it would likely suppress the infection rate and up the UK test counts in a less meaningful way.
Might even include lateral flow tests sent out - given the tricks the UK Gov has used in the past to massage their stats.
Psamathe wrote: ↑22 Jul 2021, 12:43pmDo the UK "tested" figures include home testing using lateral flow tests? In theory you are meant to report the results of home lateral flow results (to Gov website which then send you an e-mail confirming your result).
I don't think that there are simple answers... you have to check each metric.
And IIRC for LFT the returned fraction is higher for positives than negatives.
Psamathe wrote: ↑22 Jul 2021, 12:43pm
Do the UK "tested" figures include home testing using lateral flow tests? In theory you are meant to report the results of home lateral flow results (to Gov website which then send you an e-mail confirming your result). Trouble is it's a unreliable test that can often miss infections so if those data are included it would likely suppress the infection rate and up the UK test counts in a less meaningful way.
MJR, mostly pedalling 3-speed roadsters. KL+West Norfolk BUG incl social easy rides http://www.klwnbug.co.uk All the above is CC-By-SA and no other implied copyright license to Cycle magazine.
Psamathe wrote: ↑22 Jul 2021, 12:43pm
Do the UK "tested" figures include home testing using lateral flow tests? In theory you are meant to report the results of home lateral flow results (to Gov website which then send you an e-mail confirming your result).
You're only meant to use them for work purposes if your employer doesn't provide them. I do a test every other day provided by my employer - but they don't get reported back to the Gov.
A novice learning... “the dreamers of the day are dangerous men, for they may act their dreams with open eyes, to make it possible.”
Psamathe wrote: ↑22 Jul 2021, 12:43pm
Do the UK "tested" figures include home testing using lateral flow tests? In theory you are meant to report the results of home lateral flow results (to Gov website which then send you an e-mail confirming your result).
You're only meant to use them for work purposes if your employer doesn't provide them. I do a test every other day provided by my employer - but they don't get reported back to the Gov.
We get lft cartridges at work (sent out by the Gov, I believe?) After testing (night before work, twice-a-week usually), I email the H&S manager ("I passed - hurrah!"), then register the test result here: https://www.gov.uk/report-covid19-result
pwa wrote: ↑21 Jul 2021, 3:39pm
The Government have been inconsistent and lax. When Covid first came on the radar they had a chance to ban all non-essential cross border travel, and missed it. If they had acted firmly at that point we would have bought some time to prepare. Right now they are getting a bit stricter on travel from France (a good thing) but turning a blind eye to the fact that France is part of a Free Movement of Covid area. Except for professionals (such as lorry drivers), we do not need to be going abroad right now, taking any nasties we have and bringing their nasties back. It is a crazy lack of self control that prolongs the pandemic.
Go tell it to Michael Gove.
And 50,000 people who travelled to and from from India while the virus spread exponentially in a densely crowded place.
Tell it to the 100,000s of thousands of holiday makers and the trans atlantic businessmen.
Tell it to the nightmare queues at Heathrow and elsewhere.
Tell it to London Underground travellers.
Tell it to the Health Secretary.
And the PM and his ex advisor.
Tell it to the Chinese and ask them some pertinent questions about Wuhan.
Tell it to rule breakers and football fans.
And let those of us who quietly travel by road for love and family and fully abide by regulations get on with it.
Risk is an assessment.
Why don't you write an indignant letter to the DM.
Tell you what, I'll let you do all those things. At the same time as you stick to the regulations (as you say you do) drawn up by a Government you feel to be incompetent. If you think unnecessary cross border travel doesn't facilitate the spread of the pandemic and new variants, what other mode of spread do you envisage? Royal Mail? Video conferencing? It was initially brought to these shores by folk who had caught it in Spain or Northern Italy. And yes, the Indian variant was brought in by people who were unwisely allowed to travel from India. Do you think, as I do, that allowing that international travel was stupid? Yes?
Except for those with a bloody good reason, the rest of us should be sticking pretty close to home and thereby not acting as an unwitting means of transmission for a new variant. That is the position of Welsh Labour, by the way, our Welsh Tories taking a position closer to yours. I think the Government have been lax. You think they should give you more freedom? If there is a DM reader here it is you!
Infections in the Netherlands are down by another 10% compared to yesterday. In my town it is now about one seventh of what it was only recently. Hospital admissions are now also beginning to come down (70 today, 124 yesterday).
willem jongman wrote: ↑22 Jul 2021, 3:27pm
Infections in the Netherlands are down by another 10% compated to yesterday. In my town it is now about one seventh of what it was only recently.
At some point you will have to allow infections to rise, if you ever want to get back to anything like normal. Suppressing the virus by limiting infections is what you do as a short term measure until the long term solutions come along. In the UK we are now in the next phase, some would say too early, where we rely on the vaccines to limit the harm done by the virus, while not suppressing transmission as much as before. You are in the lucky position of being able to see how we get on, so you will learn a few things before you have to do it.
I think I heard yesterday that over 90% of young adults here now have antibodies, from infection or vaccination.
I also heard that those admitted to hospital are getting better sooner, with very few getting dangerously ill.
We still need to watch out for new variants, though. If one comes along that can side-step the vaccines we will have to think again.
Psamathe wrote: ↑22 Jul 2021, 12:43pm
Do the UK "tested" figures include home testing using lateral flow tests? In theory you are meant to report the results of home lateral flow results (to Gov website which then send you an e-mail confirming your result).
You're only meant to use them for work purposes if your employer doesn't provide them. I do a test every other day provided by my employer - but they don't get reported back to the Gov.
We get lft cartridges at work (sent out by the Gov, I believe?) After testing (night before work, twice-a-week usually), I email the H&S manager ("I passed - hurrah!"), then register the test result here: https://www.gov.uk/report-covid19-result
Ours don't come from the Government, we're paying for them. They also have a different method of application.
A novice learning... “the dreamers of the day are dangerous men, for they may act their dreams with open eyes, to make it possible.”
Restrictions will have to be lifted at some stage, at least in part, but the recent Dutch experiment showed that you can do this too early: very few of the under 30s had received their first dose and it was they who were infected. By now vaccination has progressed with about 80% of the population above 11 years old vaccinated at least once and almost 60% of them fully vaccinated. In short, we are no longer much behind the UK and the big question will be how much further we can get to the ideal 100%. Surveys have indicated that 89% have either been vaccinated or want to be vaccinated. We shall see. It is clear that the Euopean digital certificate is quite an incentive for the undecided. There is no way I can travel to Germany, Belgium or France (to mention just a few) without it. Macron has set a very good example.
mattheus wrote: ↑22 Jul 2021, 2:42pm
...
...
We get lft cartridges at work (sent out by the Gov, I believe?) After testing (night before work, twice-a-week usually), I email the H&S manager ("I passed - hurrah!"), then register the test result here: https://www.gov.uk/report-covid19-result
Ours don't come from the Government, we're paying for them. They also have a different method of application.
RIghty-ho - I have no experience of that arrangement!
