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LEJOGs risky?

Posted: 9 Jul 2013, 11:14pm
by Ellieb
I was doing a search & if you include the tragic deaths on the A30 this week, that makes at least 6 deaths on E2E rides since 2008. I'm not sure if you could make a statistically significant case, but It got me wondering if the 1 in 4000 death rate reflects an additional risk in doing a LEJOG?

Re: LEJOGs risky?

Posted: 10 Jul 2013, 8:02am
by robgul
Ellieb wrote:I was doing a search & if you include the tragic deaths on the A30 this week, that makes at least 6 deaths on E2E rides since 2008. I'm not sure if you could make a statistically significant case, but It got me wondering if the 1 in 4000 death rate reflects an additional risk in doing a LEJOG?


Where do you get the "1:4,000" figure from? - NOBODY knows how many people cycle the E2E each year ... my, reasonably informed, guess is that it's a lot more than your statistic suggests. Just taking the people that contact my website + the organised package trips + the charity rides it's lots more (the RAB alone has well over 600 each year for starters)

The A30 incident was indeed tragic BUT very few riders use main trunk roads for the E2E .... the most common enquiry I get is for routes using "quiet lanes"

Just do it ... it's a great ride ... having done both ways I'm planning to do the "double" (from home to JOG to LE and back home) in 2015

Rob
Cycle:End-to-End website

Re: LEJOGs risky?

Posted: 10 Jul 2013, 9:17am
by Si
It has added risk compared to riding around your local loop: e.g. you don't know the roads, you are often going to be more tired than usual, you are more likely to end up in the middle of no where, etc

However, you could say the same things about, say, audaxes and many 1000s or people do many 1000s of miles on them without problem.

Another factor with E2E is that a number of riders on it are relatively new to cycling. Having less experience can make something a little more risky, and can also skew the figures for more experienced riders like yourself.

But, with no scientific deductions to back it up, I'd say that really, the E2E is no more dangerous than any other long tour (for which we do not have KSI rates to compare).

Re: LEJOGs risky?

Posted: 10 Jul 2013, 11:09am
by irc
There is an interactive map showing UK cycling fatalities from 1985 - 2013. I can't see any clustering on the typical LeJog routes.

http://icycleliverpool.blogspot.co.uk/p/blog-page.html

There may well be a slightly increased risk on a LeJog due to the extra time and miles cycled especially if the A30 or other 70mph dual carriageways are chosen. I suspect it is pretty small though.

Re: LEJOGs risky?

Posted: 10 Jul 2013, 11:41am
by Vorpal
Even if good data were available on the number of people doing LEJoG each year, I think it would be difficult to arrive at a conclusion in which we can have any confidence. Six deaths since 2008 is a very small sample, statistically.

Even if we suppose that it does represent an elevated level of risk; route choice, personal circumstances and capabilities, and experience have more influence on the level of risk than whether someone is going on LEJog, LEL, a club run, or commuting.

Re: LEJOGs risky?

Posted: 10 Jul 2013, 12:11pm
by Mark1978
Around home you are likely to have a good idea which are the busy roads which are rat runs and which are the genuinely nice quiet lanes. Something which you can't tell from a map or even Streetview.

Cycling through an unknown area therefore carries greater risk and you're also trying to get somewhere rather than doing a loop so your more likely to chance doing the A road for 10 miles whereas at home you'd take the longer route.

Re: LEJOGs risky?

Posted: 10 Jul 2013, 12:31pm
by irc
The overall fatality risk for UK cyclists according to the Dept of Transport is 1 death per 28'000'000 miles cycles*. Taking a typical LeJog as a 1'000 mile tour suggests a 1:28'000 risk of death on a LeJog. I seem to remember the risks being higher per mile on rural roads. Couple that with riders being sometimes inexperienced and on unfamiliar roads and the risk may be substantially greater than 1:28'000. 1:14'000? But then as men in my age group have on average a 1:279 chance of dying in the next year** an extra 1:14'000 risk is pretty small.

Of course since like everyone else here I am an experienced and highly skilled rider my personal risk would in fact be far less than the average 1:28'000 anyway :-)


*http://understandinguncertainty.org/fatality-risk-boris-bikes

** http://www.medicine.ox.ac.uk/bandolier/ ... ngage.html