What will we be riding in 10/20 years?

[belgiangoth]

I came accross this on the compas bicycle site:
http://janheine.wordpress.com/2011/04/0 ... he-future/
Which got me thinking of what the bike I will be riding in 10 years time will be?

I had just read this
http://www.gizmag.com/real-deal-on-velomobiles/16193/
about "the real deal" of using a velomobile. An important point they make is that velomobiles are slightly faster on the flat and downhill, but significantly slower uphill due to a greater weight. I reckon the difference is not entirely down to the aero shell, and that this statement could probably be made of an unfaired recumbent trike.

I don't agree with Jan, however, I think that in 10 years time, if I want to go fast or tour/audax, I will probably ride a recumbent (bike or trike) with partial fairing. Chances are it will have tubeless tyres and some sort of hub (or bottom bracket) gearing. For commuting, however, I reckon that I will stick with a fixed gear DF. I doubt that a 20 min commute will push me to try 650b*42mm tyres, as comfort is less of an issue on a 20 min ride than speed/not-getting-to-work-sweaty. I may invest in a lighter steel frame.

As far as race, tour or commuting bikes are concerned, do you predict a big change in your bike in the next 10/20 years?

[[XAP]Bob]

I think I'll be riding the same trike as I have now.

It might develop removable fairings, or fixed ones if I get good.

That would require me being able to build a garage though...

[byegad]

I ride part faired trikes now. My QNT and Kettwiesel share a Streamer Fairing.

I only feel the aero benefit downhill or into a stiff headwind*, but then the Engine is 61 years old, asthmatic and arthritic. The main benefit is keeping dry in light rain, even a torrential downpour only needs Rainlegs and decent waterproof jacket to keep me dry.

I have been known to scalp roadies into a full gale!

[squeaker]

An important point they make is that velomobiles are slightly faster on the flat and downhill

'Slightly'? Using Hembrow's version of Kreuzotter's calculator at 125W (I am an old fart) the speed difference (between 'on the drops' and a Mango Sport) on the flat is about 30% - from 26 to 34kph - and I can't ride on the drops for any time at all! To me that's significant
As is downhill (5% gradient) where the speed doubles
Pity about the up-hills, though

[belgiangoth]

Hi Squeaker, I think the point is less the size of the speed benefit and more that you get an extra where you're already going faster (flat) and a greater cost where you are already challenged (uphills).

[squeaker]

Hi Squeaker, I think the point is less the size of the speed benefit and more that you get an extra where you're already going faster (flat) and a greater cost where you are already challenged (uphills).

Appreciate that: horses for courses and all that

[belgiangoth]

So, do you velomobile?

If so, how does your experience compare with that on gizmag?

[uphillbothways]

So, do you velomobile?

If so, how does your experience compare with that on gizmag?

They're heavy, expensive and impractical. For a normal rider, a Quest velomobile is only 1-2mph faster on the flat than a lowracer recumbent with a tailbox, but cost and weight are 2-3 times greater.

The future looks very much like a Challenge Fujin with a tailbox. Lighter and more comfortable than a touring bike, faster than a time trial bike, and there's somewhere secure and waterproof to keep your stuff.

[byegad]

So, do you velomobile?

If so, how does your experience compare with that on gizmag?

They're heavy, expensive and impractical. For a normal rider, a Quest velomobile is only 1-2mph faster on the flat than a lowracer recumbent with a tailbox, but cost and weight are 2-3 times greater.

The future looks very much like a Challenge Fujin with a tailbox. Lighter and more comfortable than a touring bike, faster than a time trial bike, and there's somewhere secure and waterproof to keep your stuff.

I tried a very short ride in a Velomobile and yes you can cruise faster. This very ordinary rider wound it up to 30mph in now time and was amazed at how it kept that speed while coasting for what seemed like ages. I'd say the 1 or 2 mph flat cruising advantage is an understatement. BUT. This greater speed advantage on the flat and downhill will soon be lost on any kind of climb. I crawl up hill on my trikes anyway, the extra weight of a velomobile would slow me to the point I doubt I could successfully gear a Velomobile to get me up a serious hill and still allow me to use the top speed I'd be capable of reaching on the flat. This after I have owned an 81 speed AZUB 4 with 15-150" range. For a Velomobile I'd be looking at a sub 10" bottom gear, preferably sub 8" and that would leave me with an 80" top gear given the same %age range spread. That's too low to gain the flat and downhill aero advantage.

[Geoff.D]

As Squeaker says, it's horses for courses.

One trend, though, is likely to continue. The gap between rich and poor continues to widen every year. Those lucky enough to be on the positive side of this trend will have increasing disposable income. With this comes the opportunity to have more than one "use-it-in-all-situations" bike. This applies to me, and I think I see it around and about with riders who have a hack, a training bike and a Sunday ride/event bike.

Also, for any individual, their needs will change as their circumstances change. For myself, as I approach retiremnt with an arthritic ankle and lower back pain, I'm looking forward to supplementing my upright (for shopping) and my bent (for touring) with a trike ( to never have to get off and walk up long Yorkshire climbs on my ankle!).

Answering the question - a greater variety of bikes, with more sophisticated materials and technology, but not necessarily any great leaps forward in concept.

[ajs]

Could it be the evolution of transport infrastructure, rather than cycle technology, that will have the bigger influence on what we’ll be riding in the future? More folders, maybe, if the cycle / public transport interface arrangements favour this. Or, more utility bikes if greater numbers are tempted to ride by an expansion of cycling–specific facilities. On the other hand if the general state of our road surfaces continues to deteriorate we could see suspension on the increase! (I’m already starting to use wider section tyres – but this is probably an “age thing”).
My hope, whatever the trends in cycle technology, is that I’ll still be able to buy good, basic components (7 or 8 speed cassettes/freewheels, threaded headsets, square taper BB, etc.) to keep the old fleet on the road.

[Geoff.D]

Totally agree with ajs

[Mark1978]

10 years time will be broadly similar to today.

If you want to speculate then you want to be thinking more like 100 years.

[hercule]

I'm pretty sure I won't be around in 100 years! For what I'll be riding in 10-20 years, here are a few bold predictions:

1. an upright Dutch style bike round town. Dependable, low maintenance, doesn't (seem) to attract the thieves (especially since I ensure it's "distressed" enough not to draw attention to itself. Yes, probably the same one as now.

2. A "touring" bike - been riding one for the last 30 years, can't see myself changing now. I'd be very surprised if the current steed (now 11 years old) isn't still going - its predecessor still is. One deraillieurs, one hub gear.

3. A recumbent trike (at least one). I've cycled more miles per year since I got a Kettwiesel in 2006 than any time before, and the majority has consistently been by trike. In 10 years time I hope to be riding the same ones (Kett and QNT) unless I succumb to the n+1 disease.

4. A velomobile? Perhaps the most contentious, given the comments above. Adding a fairing to the QNT made such a difference to all-weather practicality and dealing with headwinds (something we have a lot of round here), as well as making me a tiny built faster, convinced me that if a little was good, a full fairing must be much better. I'd have had my name on the waiting list for a Sinner Mango Sport if the cost wasn't so high. But the comments above have left me in a little doubt, especially when I think about all the hills round here.

So... probably not a lot of change here, then. It might be a bit different if there are infrastructure changes that make cycling more attractive (the straight line connection to the main commercial centre here is 8 miles along a narrow and very busy trunk road that serves as the main arterial route for the whole region; the alternatives are at least double the distance and include a couple of nasty "rat run" country roads that can be unnerving on a bike).

[belgiangoth]

hercule, isn't there a full fairing available to add to your QNT to make it a velomobile?