What will we be riding in 10/20 years?

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byegad
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Re: What will we be riding in 10/20 years?

Postby byegad » 4 Aug 2012, 9:32am

belgiangoth wrote:hercule, isn't there a full fairing available to add to your QNT to make it a velomobile?


You are talking about the Borealis.
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squeaker
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Re: What will we be riding in 10/20 years?

Postby squeaker » 4 Aug 2012, 9:59am

belgiangoth wrote:hercule, isn't there a full fairing available to add to your QNT to make it a velomobile?

Borealis
Personally I've never seen the point, as compared to a built from the ground up velomobile, the cost saving isn't massive (IMHO you need front suspension on a practical day to day use velomobile) and the weight tends to be on the high side.
OTOH you can go back to the bare trike (for the 'summer'?) and the incremental cost of the shell is possibly easier to justify.
Also, in the discussions above, no one mentioned the weather protection benefits of a velomobile, which would be a real plus for me when riding in winter - I hate cold hands and getting wet!!!
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Re: What will we be riding in 10/20 years?

Postby byegad » 4 Aug 2012, 1:09pm

squeaker wrote:
belgiangoth wrote:hercule, isn't there a full fairing available to add to your QNT to make it a velomobile?

Borealis
Personally I've never seen the point, as compared to a built from the ground up velomobile, the cost saving isn't massive (IMHO you need front suspension on a practical day to day use velomobile) and the weight tends to be on the high side.
OTOH you can go back to the bare trike (for the 'summer'?) and the incremental cost of the shell is possibly easier to justify.
Also, in the discussions above, no one mentioned the weather protection benefits of a velomobile, which would be a real plus for me when riding in winter - I hate cold hands and getting wet!!!


That's why ICE introduced a retro-fit front suspension for their trikes. I asked one of the owners what effect it had on the Borealis and he said it prevented body drumming and improved direction control on rougher surfaces.
"I thought of that while riding my bike." -Albert Einstein, on the Theory of Relativity

2007 ICE QNT
2008 Hase Kettwiesel AL27
2011 Catrike Trail
1951 engine

hercule
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Re: What will we be riding in 10/20 years?

Postby hercule » 4 Aug 2012, 7:16pm

AFAIK, the Borealis shell is made in Canada: not an easy item to get to the UK. I wouldn't want to lose the versatility of the trike as it is, either. A custom made velomobile strikes me as a much better solution, and I suspect there's not a lot in it price wise if you added up the cost of front suspension, velo' shell, and shipping across from Canada. The Streamer fairing does add a surprising amount of practicality, though - and I was skeptical as to it's benefits, which is why I bought mine cheaply second-hand. Being second hand meant that I had to make my own mountings, but I've been so impressed by the fairing that it's been of the trike precisely twice in the last year, for a day each. I did think about getting an aero tail box (ie more like that used on low racers, not ICE's own mini "top box") for storage and further improved aerodynamics, but my enquiries were less than encouraging.

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Re: What will we be riding in 10/20 years?

Postby belgiangoth » 4 Aug 2012, 7:52pm

uphillbothways wrote:The future looks very much like a Challenge Fujin with a tailbox. Lighter and more comfortable than a touring bike, faster than a time trial bike, and there's somewhere secure and waterproof to keep your stuff.

How much difference is there between a velomobile and a "Challenge Fujin with a tailbox" with a front fairing? Would have thought you would get most of the weatherproof and aerodynamics with less cost and weight (a side wind issue?)
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Re: What will we be riding in 10/20 years?

Postby belgiangoth » 4 Aug 2012, 8:01pm

Mark1978 wrote:10 years time will be broadly similar to today.

If you want to speculate then you want to be thinking more like 100 years.

OK, a bit daring, but, I reckon in 20 years time there will be some big changes (or not):
1- I don't think Hub gears will take-off beyond their current city bike remit (that's a true 100 year issue)
2- disk brakes will be as ubiquitous as V-brakes are now, meaning that V-brakes and hub brakes will be going the way of the dinosaur
3- I think (laugh now, it will save you having to do this later) that we will see a big increase in tubular use. My crazy logic on this is that the development of sealant/tube repair in making tubeless tires will spin-off better/more reliable tubular fixers.

I reckon that in 20 years we may well see many more people on laidbacks, but the variety will need to reduce as too much choice makes it harder for people to take the leap. I'll probably be riding a Challenge Fujin with a tailbox, as uphillbothways suggests.
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Re: What will we be riding in 10/20 years?

Postby hercule » 4 Aug 2012, 9:05pm

belgiangoth wrote:
Mark1978 wrote:10 years time will be broadly similar to today.

If you want to speculate then you want to be thinking more like 100 years.

OK, a bit daring, but, I reckon in 20 years time there will be some big changes (or not):
1- I don't think Hub gears will take-off beyond their current city bike remit (that's a true 100 year issue)
2- disk brakes will be as ubiquitous as V-brakes are now, meaning that V-brakes and hub brakes will be going the way of the dinosaur
3- I think (laugh now, it will save you having to do this later) that we will see a big increase in tubular use. My crazy logic on this is that the development of sealant/tube repair in making tubeless tires will spin-off better/more reliable tubular fixers.

I reckon that in 20 years we may well see many more people on laidbacks, but the variety will need to reduce as too much choice makes it harder for people to take the leap. I'll probably be riding a Challenge Fujin with a tailbox, as uphillbothways suggests.


1. The biggest change (apart from 'bents) for me is riding hub gears: the Nexus 8 has been a revelation for all year riding. I think they'll get better and higher profile.

2. Disk brakes better get better than they are now, then. The BB7s on my Kett are a constant source of irritation. The Sturmey drums on my Trice are simply brilliant. Whilst disks are certainly trickling down the market they aren't as easy to maintain as rim brakes.

3. We already have "tubs" in a sense in the MTB world, with tubeless tyres

An additional prediction:

4. Belt drives. Combined with hub gears, they make a brilliant transmission. I walked past a Harley Davidson today and was startled to notice that it was a belt that drove the rear wheel. I'd certainly go for a belt drive/Alfine 11 drop bar bike.

I guess we also have to think about whether we're talking about the likes of us, keen cyclists, or the bigger cycling public, in making these predictions about the future. If the Olympics gets folk on bikes, none of this will come true: it will all be skinny tyred road bikes and brakeless track bikes sold from Halfords. :twisted:

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Re: What will we be riding in 10/20 years?

Postby squeaker » 5 Aug 2012, 8:08am

hercule wrote:...it will all be skinny tyred road bikes and brakeless track bikes sold from Halfords. :twisted:
As opposed to road bikes with brakes that don't work :?: :roll: :lol:
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Re: What will we be riding in 10/20 years?

Postby squeaker » 5 Aug 2012, 8:15am

belgiangoth wrote:How much difference is there between a velomobile and a "Challenge Fujin with a tailbox" with a front fairing? Would have thought you would get most of the weatherproof and aerodynamics with less cost and weight (a side wind issue?)
No direct experience of a faired bike, but Lightning F40s are not that common....
Side wind stability on a bicycle would be my worry: AFAIK trikes have much less of an issue as you don't steer to balance :wink:
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byegad
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Re: What will we be riding in 10/20 years?

Postby byegad » 5 Aug 2012, 8:45am

squeaker wrote:No direct experience of a faired bike, but Lightning F40s are not that common....
Side wind stability on a bicycle would be my worry: AFAIK trikes have much less of an issue as you don't steer to balance :wink:


I rode an Azub-4 SWB with a Streamer Fairing. Side winds were a little more noticeable but not unmanageable. In fact so manageable that I ended up riding on days with so much wind that I would have stayed home on a DF. The benefit into the wind is really something to experience. You are right about trikes not feeling side winds Even the Kettwiesel, which is as high as the Azub and has the fairing a bit higher than the Azub had is stable in a gale. The lower (By 10".) QNT has the benefit of wind shear working in its favour. Wind is slower the closer to the ground you get. Also I don't notice any difference between my Streamer faired QNT and my unfaired Catrike Trail.
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2008 Hase Kettwiesel AL27
2011 Catrike Trail
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belgiangoth
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Re: What will we be riding in 10/20 years?

Postby belgiangoth » 6 Aug 2012, 10:09am

hercule wrote:
belgiangoth wrote:1. The biggest change (apart from 'bents) for me is riding hub gears: the Nexus 8 has been a revelation for all year riding. I think they'll get better and higher profile.

2. Disk brakes better get better than they are now, then. The BB7s on my Kett are a constant source of irritation. The Sturmey drums on my Trice are simply brilliant. Whilst disks are certainly trickling down the market they aren't as easy to maintain as rim brakes.

3. We already have "tubs" in a sense in the MTB world, with tubeless tyres

An additional prediction:

4. Belt drives. Combined with hub gears, they make a brilliant transmission. I walked past a Harley Davidson today and was startled to notice that it was a belt that drove the rear wheel. I'd certainly go for a belt drive/Alfine 11 drop bar bike.

I guess we also have to think about whether we're talking about the likes of us, keen cyclists, or the bigger cycling public, in making these predictions about the future. If the Olympics gets folk on bikes, none of this will come true: it will all be skinny tyred road bikes and brakeless track bikes sold from Halfords. :twisted:


In my opinion hub gears will only really catch on once they can move beyond the "practical" niche that they are in - no one aspires to practical. They need to be as simple as a QR to remove and re-install for rear punctures and they need to drop in weight even further (I know the top hub gears are the same weight as derailleurs, but they're all on the wheel, which makes them effectively more effort).
I have no experience of disk brakes and am told that mechanical disks are very poor indeed. But they are trickling down so fast that I can see them replacing V-brakes very soon.
It's exactly the MTB tubeless puncture-proofing/fixing advancements that are currently being eyed up by pro racers that I'm talking about. If it will work for Paris-Roubaix on tubeless, then I think the next step will be to use tubeless flat protection in tubs to combine the ride quality with reliability.
I'm still very skeptical with regards to belt drives, they are more work to set up, you need a new bike for them and they need a hub gear.
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NUKe
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Re: What will we be riding in 10/20 years?

Postby NUKe » 6 Aug 2012, 10:15am

persoanlly in 10 years time I am hoping to be riding the same bikes as I am now
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notme2
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Re: What will we be riding in 10/20 years?

Postby notme2 » 6 Aug 2012, 10:45am

I'll be riding my raleigh randonneur

not sure if its the new one i just bought or the old one i've been riding for 25 yrs

oh btw the new one is older than my old one but was bought and stored in a garage for all that time

never ridden (what a waste but my good fortune)

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Re: What will we be riding in 10/20 years?

Postby byegad » 6 Aug 2012, 11:22am

NUKe wrote:persoanlly in 10 years time I am hoping to be riding the same bikes as I am now


+1 or my wife will kill me. They were not cheap!
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2008 Hase Kettwiesel AL27
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[XAP]Bob
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Re: What will we be riding in 10/20 years?

Postby [XAP]Bob » 6 Aug 2012, 2:03pm

belgiangoth wrote:In my opinion hub gears will only really catch on once they can move beyond the "practical" niche that they are in - no one aspires to practical. They need to be as simple as a QR to remove and re-install for rear punctures and they need to drop in weight even further (I know the top hub gears are the same weight as derailleurs, but they're all on the wheel, which makes them effectively more effort).
I have no experience of disk brakes and am told that mechanical disks are very poor indeed. But they are trickling down so fast that I can see them replacing V-brakes very soon.
It's exactly the MTB tubeless puncture-proofing/fixing advancements that are currently being eyed up by pro racers that I'm talking about. If it will work for Paris-Roubaix on tubeless, then I think the next step will be to use tubeless flat protection in tubs to combine the ride quality with reliability.
I'm still very skeptical with regards to belt drives, they are more work to set up, you need a new bike for them and they need a hub gear.


They don't need to be lighter than dedanglers - just the same weight. It's all on the hub, not the rim, so the wheel penalty isn't that much.

Mechanical disks come in a variety of qualities - BB7s are supremely powerful - I'm grip limited in anything other than bone dry conditions, and then I'm limited because I've never had to emergency stop from more than 30mph.

I think that belt/shaft drive could easily take off - maybe shaft even easier than belt - it'll take a couple of celebrities though...
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