Glad I had a lid.

This sub-forum all discussions about this "lively" subject. All topics that are substantially about helmets will be moved here, if not placed here correctly in the first place.
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mjr
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Re: Glad I had a lid.

Postby mjr » 28 Jan 2016, 4:07pm

Zigster wrote:No one has suggested the victim in this incident should have been wearing a helmet. Can you imagine the reporting if he had been a cyclist, either no helmet or a helmet which smashed on impact and so clearly "saved his life"?

Who needs to imagine? Just a bit west, http://www.dailyecho.co.uk/news/1423735 ... collision/ was published 13:05 today, the first comment "was a helmet being used" was posted at 14:45 and that's just the latest collision story I've seen. I'm sure it often happens faster on bigger websites.
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Re: Glad I had a lid.

Postby Steady rider » 28 Jan 2016, 5:31pm

The impact speed looks like about 25 to 30 mph, any closer estimate I wonder.

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Re: Glad I had a lid.

Postby [XAP]Bob » 28 Jan 2016, 6:17pm

Maybe we should be asking the question with all pedestrian collisions, whether or not there was a head impact....
A shortcut has to be a challenge, otherwise it would just be the way. No situation is so dire that panic cannot make it worse.
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Re: Glad I had a lid.

Postby irc » 28 Jan 2016, 8:16pm

Steady rider wrote:The impact speed looks like about 25 to 30 mph, any closer estimate I wonder.


I make it about 24mph. Look at the Guardian CCTV.

http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016 ... it-and-run

The first angle has an on screen timer. The seconds changes to 12 as the car crosses the give way then to 13 as it hits the ped. The distance from the give way to the ped is about 3 lengths of the Fiat 500. 3 x 3.5M in 1 second is 10.5 M per second or 24mph.

Using proper analysis of that footage and accurate measurements of the distances should give the investigators a near enough exact speed.

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Re: Glad I had a lid.

Postby TonyR » 28 Jan 2016, 8:44pm

pjclinch wrote:In summary, a helmet can help a sports rider, but not in the way a general rider is looking for help!


But its notable that the death rate in professional cycling since helmets were made mandatory has tripled

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Re: Glad I had a lid.

Postby Steady rider » 28 Jan 2016, 10:04pm

Thanks for the 24 mph calculation.
http://papers.sae.org/856032/

I think the g forces on the head will probably have been about 100 to 150 but could have been even higher.
From a science point of view, the injuries and analysis of the video information and damage to the vehicle could be useful, assuming the poor chap would allow and provide the medical data.

https://www.researchgate.net/publicatio ... of_benefit
Ref 31 McCaul KA, McLean AJ, Kloeden CN, Hinrichs RW,
'Study of head injury in children' CR 64, NH&MRC Road
Accident Research Unit, University of Adelaide, March 1988
describes the case of an 8 year old boy being hit side on by a car doing about 30 mhp - 50km/hr, about 200g force to the head where reported from the simulation.

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Re: Glad I had a lid.

Postby pjclinch » 28 Jan 2016, 10:49pm

TonyR wrote:
But its notable that the death rate in professional cycling since helmets were made mandatory has tripled


Sample base is pretty small, number of fatalities is pretty small. So not really that notable, and hard to isolate from other factors like rise of bonkers BMX and downhill MTB, increased use of faster but more awkward TT bikes, increased peloton sizes and the like.

Helmets may be a factor but you really don't have anything approaching a smoking gun. You've got enough fuel to say there's not a proven safety reason to mandate them, but not to lay the blame for a higher death rate.

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Re: Glad I had a lid.

Postby mjr » 28 Jan 2016, 10:49pm

[XAP]Bob wrote:Maybe we should be asking the question with all pedestrian collisions, whether or not there was a head impact....

Must we stoop to the level of the helmet promoters?
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Re: Glad I had a lid.

Postby TonyR » 28 Jan 2016, 11:44pm

pjclinch wrote:
TonyR wrote:
But its notable that the death rate in professional cycling since helmets were made mandatory has tripled


Sample base is pretty small, number of fatalities is pretty small. So not really that notable, and hard to isolate from other factors like rise of bonkers BMX and downhill MTB, increased use of faster but more awkward TT bikes, increased peloton sizes and the like.

Helmets may be a factor but you really don't have anything approaching a smoking gun. You've got enough fuel to say there's not a proven safety reason to mandate them, but not to lay the blame for a higher death rate.

Pete.


And you know all that without even having seen the data?

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Re: Glad I had a lid.

Postby Vorpal » 29 Jan 2016, 6:00am

The number of deaths recorded have tripled, not the rate. In the meanwhile, there are many more professional road races each year, and better record keeping.
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Re: Glad I had a lid.

Postby TonyR » 29 Jan 2016, 8:12am

Vorpal wrote:The number of deaths recorded have tripled, not the rate. In the meanwhile, there are many more professional road races each year, and better record keeping.


Someone else who hasn't seen the data but knows all about it?

The death rate has tripled and I suspect that people do notice when someone dies as opposed to falls of their bike and gets road rash.

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Re: Glad I had a lid.

Postby pjclinch » 29 Jan 2016, 8:22am

TonyR wrote:
pjclinch wrote:
TonyR wrote:
But its notable that the death rate in professional cycling since helmets were made mandatory has tripled


Sample base is pretty small, number of fatalities is pretty small. So not really that notable, and hard to isolate from other factors like rise of bonkers BMX and downhill MTB, increased use of faster but more awkward TT bikes, increased peloton sizes and the like.

Helmets may be a factor but you really don't have anything approaching a smoking gun. You've got enough fuel to say there's not a proven safety reason to mandate them, but not to lay the blame for a higher death rate.

Pete.


And you know all that without even having seen the data?


All I'm really saying is I suspect it's a bit more complicated than directly and implicitly causally associating helmet requirements with three-fold death rate increases.

I base that on some moderately well informed guesswork: being paid to race bikes isn't a very big field of employment, and judging from the e-pages of Cycling News (and in particular their Facebook feed) not very many of them are getting dead. As members of Giant Alpecin pointed out they could have had a significant portion of the team annihilated last week in a single traffic incident, so we're at the level where statistical noise will be a problem. Pros have been voicing serious safety concerns but the size of the peloton appears to be regarded as more of a problem. Maybe you know far more about that than, say, Bauke Mollema, but again I think I have cause for Reasonable Doubt. And I also know that different aspects of cycle sport have had different relationships with helmets over the time from which they were made mandatory for the pro-peloton, and that's going to be difficult to account for, and I know that equipment has developed considerably over that time too (particularly for MTB and TT), so again you have plenty of variables to add in to the mix to confuse it.

And having seen "the data", you've accounted for all of that (and lord knows what other factors haven't occurred to me yet)? If so, do share.

Just as it is very difficult to demonstrate helmets have helped, much the same problems come to the fore in proving they've clearly hindered.

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Re: Glad I had a lid.

Postby Vorpal » 29 Jan 2016, 9:44am

TonyR wrote:
Vorpal wrote:The number of deaths recorded have tripled, not the rate. In the meanwhile, there are many more professional road races each year, and better record keeping.


Someone else who hasn't seen the data but knows all about it?

The death rate has tripled and I suspect that people do notice when someone dies as opposed to falls of their bike and gets road rash.

You mean this data?*

helmets_in_racing.jpg


They don't say anything about the numbers of races. Only the numbers of deaths. I attempted at one point to figure out how many more races there were now compared to before helmets were required, and it wasn't easy to figure out. There are more races now, but I couldn't determine how much the number of races had increased. There are quite good records, now. But they are sparse, going back more than 10 years. Also, the number of participants wearing helmets has increased gradually. There were already significant number of cylists wearing helmets prior to them being made mandatory.

I have been unable to find anything that shows the death rate (e.g. per race participant), rather than just the numbers of deaths. If you have this data, kindly provide a link.


* http://www.cyclehelmets.org/1213.html
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Re: Glad I had a lid.

Postby pjclinch » 29 Jan 2016, 12:21pm

Vorpal wrote:I have been unable to find anything that shows the death rate (e.g. per race participant), rather than just the numbers of deaths.


Pulling in the parallel thread about exposure and risk, death rate per race participant would be possibly a poor measure. Is a Grand Tour one race, or ~20? Races/stages of races are different lengths, the ladies do different distances to the men. In MTB what are the different risks of downhill compared to XC, and so on (and on).

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Re: Glad I had a lid.

Postby mjr » 29 Jan 2016, 1:06pm

TonyR wrote:Someone else who hasn't seen the data but knows all about it?

That would be a more convincing challenge if the data was properly cited when the claim was made.

Vorpal wrote:There are more races now, but I couldn't determine how much the number of races had increased.

Are there more races now? I can remember a lot of races which no longer take place, plus others that have only been revived in the last year or two and had been stopped for variations on safety reasons.

If the number of races can't be determined, might the number of racing licences be a useful approximation?
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