"Don't forget to wear a helmet"

pjclinch · Post by **pjclinch** » 29 Nov 2017, 1:47pm

squeaker wrote:PS: but it is refreshing to see probabilities used in UK weather forecasts now

100% certainty of some weather today...

RickH · Post by **RickH** » 29 Nov 2017, 3:44pm

pjclinch wrote:
squeaker wrote:PS: but it is refreshing to see probabilities used in UK weather forecasts now

100% certainty of some weather today...

Many moons ago - back in the 80s - there was a bike magazine called "Bicycle Action".

It was a monthly publication & at the back it had a small weather forecast. Every month it said "it will rain"! It was almost always accurate!

On weather - I've long preferred the Met Office weather app to the BBC one, although the BBC one looks nicer, as the Met Office one gives probabilities.

Stevek76 · Post by **Stevek76** » 29 Nov 2017, 4:24pm

The new met office one took a while to get there but the rain radar on the app is now superb.

[XAP]Bob · Post by **[XAP]Bob** » 1 Dec 2017, 1:32pm

UK weather is more often than not 'today will be much like yesterday'

bovlomov · Post by **bovlomov** » 1 Dec 2017, 2:09pm

[XAP]Bob wrote:UK weather is more often than not 'today will be much like yesterday'

An RAF navigator once told me that the forecast 'today will be like yesterday' is more accurate than anything from the Met Office. To be fair, his experience of such things was in the 1960s and 70s. Forecasting has improved since then.

In any case I'd add a qualifier: 'today will be like yesterday, unless looking out of the window tells you different'

bigjim · Post by **bigjim** » 1 Dec 2017, 2:19pm

Forecasting has improved since then.

You think?

AlaninWales · Post by **AlaninWales** » 1 Dec 2017, 2:32pm

bigjim wrote:
Forecasting has improved since then.

You think?

Yes. The problem is largely that people's understanding of what is being forecast has not and that the consequent dumbing down of the forecasts on popular media are often misleading (and unrepresentative of the underlying science).

Cyril Haearn · Post by **Cyril Haearn** » 1 Dec 2017, 2:49pm

Don't like the weather? Wait five minutes..
(Ireland)

Don't like the weather? Wait six months..
(Saskatchewan)

AlaninWales · Post by **AlaninWales** » 1 Dec 2017, 3:56pm

Don't like the weather? Try the next valley along..
(Wales)

[XAP]Bob · Post by **[XAP]Bob** » 2 Dec 2017, 9:58pm

bigjim wrote:
Forecasting has improved since then.

You think?

Yes, reporting however has got worse, and people expect that the forecast for next week will be a minute by minute accurate forecast - never to be updated or revised as the weather systems approach.

Tigerbiten · Post by **Tigerbiten** » 2 Dec 2017, 10:44pm

Don't like the weather? Go back to bed ....

(Me)

Phil Fouracre · Post by **Phil Fouracre** » 9 Dec 2017, 10:53am

I think that the default is to 'over cautious', post the infamous Mr Fish :-)

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