Edwards wrote:[XAP]Bob wrote:* I've not got stats to hand, but on the basis of the very low number of serious cyclist head injuries it would take a virtually negligible increase in stroke rate to make an absolute increase in brain injury
Now that is massaging the figures to only use a small group that can not be identified by any know scientific method.
Really?
How can I be massaging figures if I don't provide any...
I've had ten minutes after my latest conference call, and the Stroke Association provides a well referenced factsheet (I haven't traced and checked the references)...
OK - from
http://www.stroke.org.uk/sites/default/ ... istics.pdf152,000 strokes/year
20% are fatal
>50% of the remainder (i.e. >40% of the total) leave the survivor dependant on others for everyday activities (22% have "severe" or "very severe" disabilities as a result)
Exercise:
High blood pressure contributes to 50% of strokes
Moderate physical activity can reduce the risk of stroke by up to 27%
Being physically inactive increases your risk of ischaemic stroke by 1.5 (not sure if this is 50% or 150%)
Percentage of adults meeting the recommendations for physical activity (2009) 45% men, 33% women (I've smudged these rather than leaving the four countries of the union separated). Around a third of adults in 2009 were "inactive", doing less than one 30 minute session of exercise a week.
So - if we reduce the risk of a stroke (which has a >50% chance of rendering someone disabled, >17% severely disabled, ~20% dead) by 27% for 1/3 of the UK population (20 million people) we reduce stroke incidence by (152k/3*.73) 13.5k strokes/year.
That's about 2800 deaths, 2400 severe/very severe disabilities, 6800 disabilities (enough to rely on other people for everyday tasks).....
Let's look at it the other way round:
http://www.ctc.org.uk/resources/ctc-cycling-statisticsAround 8% of the population (3 million people) cycle 3 times a week or more
And looking at various studies a 25% reduction in cycling is a reasonable estimate for results of compulsion:
That's 3000000*.25 = 750k people who have a 27% increase in risk of stroke... an additoinal 500 strokes per year:
That's about 100 deaths, 85 2400 severe/very severe disabilities, 250 disabilities (enough to rely on other people for everyday tasks).....
I'd happily contend that *not* cycling is riskier than cycling (with or without lid)...
Yes there are other forms of exercise, but cycling is an excellent example of the sort of exercise that can be done very cheaply, and without significant time investment (you have to travel to the shops/work anyway) and that sort of exercise is very easy to keep up with. There are also other forms of disease...
