Tour de France 2021 - Spoilers

Now we have something / quite-a-lot to discuss and celebrate.
thirdcrank
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Re: Tour de France 2021 - Spoilers

Post by thirdcrank »

That "gentle uphill drag" is similar to the first bit of tomorrow's stage and in terms of the Green Jersey, there are intermediate sprints both days, just before the big climbs start - 20 points for the winner of each. Both are within the grasp of Michael Matthews and even if he's beaten, there are points for minor places. Sonny Colbrelli, currently third in the Points Classification, might be tempted to give it a go, just to be up there if Cav and MM don't make it to Paris, but otherwise, the only incentive for anybody to invest the effort is for the likes of Alaphilippe to deny the points to Cav's rivals. Obviously, an early break would change that but expect MM to get in it. All this assumes Cav won't lift a finger except to beat the time limit.
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The good news for Cav supporters is that a six-rider break is up 5'30, Matthews isn't in it, and Cav is still in the main bunch.
ratherbeintobago
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Re: Tour de France 2021 - Spoilers

Post by ratherbeintobago »

Very definitely at the back today. I think the time cut is about +39’ but I’m not certain about that.
thirdcrank
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Re: Tour de France 2021 - Spoilers

Post by thirdcrank »

All riders including Cav have finished inside the limit with about 5 minutes to spare
He only dropped one point to Michael Matthews at the intermediate sprint
Jupestar
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Re: Tour de France 2021 - Spoilers

Post by Jupestar »

solid result, I thought the first 115k might take it out of them, but also allow a bigger cut off due to pure time in the saddle. Tomorrow similar, just shorter. One day left for Cav to survive!
thirdcrank
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Re: Tour de France 2021 - Spoilers

Post by thirdcrank »

With the .. er .. Caveat that anything can happen, the only difference tomorrow is that there are two Cat 4 climbs before the intermediate sprint which may make it easier for Michael Matthews to gain points over Cav there. Otherwise, one last mountain stage to survive and with a solid posse of support, beating the time limit is a realistic aim.
ratherbeintobago
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Re: Tour de France 2021 - Spoilers

Post by ratherbeintobago »

thirdcrank wrote: 14 Jul 2021, 4:56pm All riders including Cav have finished inside the limit with about 5 minutes to spare
He only dropped one point to Michael Matthews at the intermediate sprint
Maybe the green jersey is more important than he's making out?
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foxyrider
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Re: Tour de France 2021 - Spoilers

Post by foxyrider »

ratherbeintobago wrote: 14 Jul 2021, 7:32pm
thirdcrank wrote: 14 Jul 2021, 4:56pm All riders including Cav have finished inside the limit with about 5 minutes to spare
He only dropped one point to Michael Matthews at the intermediate sprint
Maybe the green jersey is more important than he's making out?
I think its very important to him, do just enough, let the others chase :D
Convention? what's that then?
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ratherbeintobago
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Re: Tour de France 2021 - Spoilers

Post by ratherbeintobago »

foxyrider wrote: 14 Jul 2021, 8:46pm
ratherbeintobago wrote: 14 Jul 2021, 7:32pm
thirdcrank wrote: 14 Jul 2021, 4:56pm All riders including Cav have finished inside the limit with about 5 minutes to spare
He only dropped one point to Michael Matthews at the intermediate sprint
Maybe the green jersey is more important than he's making out?
I think its very important to him, do just enough, let the others chase :D
TBF if he knackers himself on the hills he won’t be winning any sprints 😛
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kylecycler
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Re: Tour de France 2021 - Spoilers

Post by kylecycler »

Someone on reddit r/peloton asked why Cav wasn't contesting the intermediate sprints and the answers explained it quite well, I thought, at least it helped me to understand why (apologies if it's obvious to the folk on here who've raced and/or have been following pro cycling for longer than me):

https://www.reddit.com/r/peloton/commen ... &context=3
He said himself in an interview this Tour that he doesn't target Green for the sake of Green. He targets stage wins and if Green comes as a by-product of that it's a bonus.

I'm sure it's more nuanced than that, and he won't ignore the points entirely, but his priority will be saving his reserves for contesting the stage wins.
He needs to save energy to make the time cuts first and foremost which means sitting in, not getting in breaks to take intermediate sprints.
He can't make it to the intermediate sprints in mountain stages. They're usually deliberately put somewhere after a hard climb to give the better climbing sprinters a chance to drop pure sprinters like Cavendish, precisely to ensure we as viewers can speculate who will win, the pure sprinter or the better climber (though in recent years, the answer was always Sagan).
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NATURAL ANKLING
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Re: Tour de France 2021 - Spoilers

Post by NATURAL ANKLING »

Hi,

Pogacar-
https://news.cuanschutz.edu/news-storie ... nce-winner

"To say cycling enthusiasts were stunned by the Tour de France performance of rookie rider Tadej Pogačar might be an understatement. Jaws dropped as the 21-year-old Slovenian, the second-youngest rider to ever win the Tour, ascended the final 5.9-kilometer final climb of the time trial and secured the yellow jersey."

https://www.bicycling.com/tour-de-franc ... air-doubt/

"Taken alone, the Belles Filles climb is short enough that Pogačar’s performance is within clean limits. But it came after a nearly 40-minute FTP effort on the flatter terrain leading to the climb, where intermediate splits show Pogačar was level with 2017 World Time Trial Champion Tom Dumoulin, a heavier rider who produces more total power at threshold and who was racing for the stage win. (Total power matters more than w/kg on flats because wind resistance, not gravity, is the primary force a rider is battling, and larger riders can have very aerodynamic positions.) Dumoulin said that his own power output for the stage, estimated at just shy of 6w/kg on the climb, was “World Championship-worthy values.” Pogačar finished 1:21 ahead of second-place Dumoulin."
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ratherbeintobago
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Re: Tour de France 2021 - Spoilers

Post by ratherbeintobago »

Cav has made 2 points back up on the intermediate sprint then.
thirdcrank
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Re: Tour de France 2021 - Spoilers

Post by thirdcrank »

ratherbeintobago wrote: 15 Jul 2021, 2:21pm Cav has made 2 points back up on the intermediate sprint then.
Looking into the crystal ball, leaving chickens uncounted and fingers crossed, only a crash or puncture at a crucial moment can stop Cav keeping the Green Jersey and winning at least the Champs Elysées. Anything might happen tomorrow with so many looking for a stage win although if there's a bunch finish, Cav must be the favourite because he's the in-form specialist sprinter with the best lead out who are committed to him. Ditto with brass knobs on for Sunday.
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I see that with the intermediate sprint out of the way, Cav has slipped off the back with his entourage to have the best possible chance of beating the time limit in an organised fashion.

Apart from his natural exuberance, I suspect Alaphilippe attacked to get the 20 points at the intermediate sprint to stop them going elsewhere if Cav had been dropped sooner.
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It looks as though limit is 1700 BST
djnotts
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Re: Tour de France 2021 - Spoilers

Post by djnotts »

Yesterday and today may fall into what Mr Kelly terms "unbelievable".

As one of commentaries referenced above puts it : "Pogačar turned in several performances that strain the limits of what we could expect a clean rider to do, especially compared to the rest of the field. This is not conjecture; it’s math."

Amazing ride though.
thirdcrank
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Re: Tour de France 2021 - Spoilers

Post by thirdcrank »

Cav has just finished 5 minutes inside the limit. Last finisher with his teammates
ratherbeintobago
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Re: Tour de France 2021 - Spoilers

Post by ratherbeintobago »

thirdcrank wrote: 15 Jul 2021, 4:56pm Cav has just finished 5 minutes inside the limit. Last finisher with his teammates
Needs to save as much energy as possible for tomorrow and Sun, doesn’t he?
djnotts wrote: 15 Jul 2021, 4:31pm Yesterday and today may fall into what Mr Kelly terms "unbelievable".

As one of commentaries referenced above puts it : "Pogačar turned in several performances that strain the limits of what we could expect a clean rider to do, especially compared to the rest of the field. This is not conjecture; it’s math."

Amazing ride though.
On the subject of ‘preparation’, anyone know what’s happening at Bahrain Victorious?
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