Asthma - cycling after lockdown is eased before vaccine

[LinusR]

This has been playing on my mind recently. I'm 58 and suffer with asthma and so do not want to contract Covid-19. I have previously been hospitalised when I had the flu when I was in my mid-twenties - and I was otherwise very healthy at the time because I was doing lots of running and swimming. I've had the flu jab every year since I turned 40 and this has kept me out of hospital. I cycle all year round and take my share of leading club rides.

Since the lockdown I've kept cycling but staying closer to home. I've been very careful to keep a distance from anyone else. Shopping is the riskiest thing I do.

A vaccine for Covid-19 is at least 18 months away (Source: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-9-impact-of-npis-on-covid-19/ page 2) That takes us to the autumn of 2021 when most people like me receive a seasonal flu jab.

If I am thinking this through correctly, even when lockdown measures are eased or lifted, people in my situation will have to continue strictly social-isolating -- ie avoiding groups and keeping 2 metres from anyone -- until I have received a vaccine. That means no group rides, no going to cafes and no using trains to join a ride. This is because the virus will still be "circulating in the community" -- the only difference being that the rate of those needing medical treatment can be accommodated without hospitals being overwhelmed.

Incidentally, I find it bizarre that the French government have given the go ahead for Le Tour to start on 29 August https://www.letour.fr/en/news/2020/tour-de-france-2020-29th-august-29th-to-20th-september/1283443. I can only think that it is an act of morale boosting for the country rather than a serious proposition. Without "herd immunity" from a vaccine -- a proper herd immunity -- more people are at risk of becoming seriously ill.

[Jdsk]

A vaccine for Covid-19 is at least 18 months away.

Could be sooner than that. Earliest possibility is about six months.

If I am thinking this through correctly, even when lockdown measures are eased or lifted, people in my situation will have to continue strictly social-isolating -- ie avoiding groups and keeping 2 metres from anyone -- until I have received a vaccine. That means no group rides, no going to cafes and no using trains to join a ride. This is because the virus will still be "circulating in the community" -- the only difference being that the rate of those needing medical treatment can be accommodated without hospitals being overwhelmed.

Yes, that's realistic. But testing for probable immunity after infection will eventually ramp up and that offers another route out.

Jonathan

[De Sisti]

On a related front, I am similar age to you and have been an asthma sufferer for a long time. In March
I received a text and letter from the NHS, stating that as I would have more of a chance of catching
the virus I should stay at home for 12 weeks. Anyhow, I am complying. Once I've been given the all-clear,
and thing get back to a semblance of normality I'll go out cycling alone for a while.

On a side note, the Semaine Federale cycle festival that takes place in During the first week of August
in France every year has been cancelled. I had already book my place and my ferry crossing too.

[Bmblbzzz]

If you're 58, presumably you're still working. Once lockdown is lifted, which may be as early as mid-May, will your employer expect you to go back to office, assuming it's an office job - or other workplace as appropriate? That's likely to present a greater risk than most cycling. Also, shopping etc (ie infection from shared surfaces - tins, packets - in the shop, not from the journey to the shop).

[De Sisti]

I don't know what is going to happen. As for the shopping analogy* you quoted; I'm pretty sure one does not get
infected that way.

*(Leave for a different discussion some other time).

[LinusR]

If you're 58, presumably you're still working. Once lockdown is lifted, which may be as early as mid-May, will your employer expect you to go back to office, assuming it's an office job - or other workplace as appropriate? That's likely to present a greater risk than most cycling. Also, shopping etc (ie infection from shared surfaces - tins, packets - in the shop, not from the journey to the shop).

The work I do is not the problem as I can remain out of contact with people and meetings. It hasn't been affected. But it is the fact that I really can't socialise until I have the vaccine. I go shopping when it's quiet so I avoid contact with people (and I do shopping for others who have been ill or are advised not to go out). Keeping a distance is not the problem. It's the fact that I cannot participate in my club rides or go to a cafe. It will be interesting to see how CTC/Cycling UK guidance changes to reflect any easing of restrictions.

[LinusR]

On a related front, I am similar age to you and have been an asthma sufferer for a long time. In March
I received a text and letter from the NHS, stating that as I would have more of a chance of catching
the virus I should stay at home for 12 weeks. Anyhow, I am complying. Once I've been given the all-clear,
and thing get back to a semblance of normality I'll go out cycling alone for a while.

I was expecting to get that text and advised to stay in. But I didn't. Quite frankly I wouldn't have followed the advice to stay home as I've found it quite easy to avoid people and get on my bike for a solo ride every other day, mixed with runs in the park. I just pick the quiet times. But you and I are going to have to keep ourselves safe until we get a vaccine.

When you say "Once I've been given the all clear" - when do you think that's gonna happen?

[Jdsk]

I was expecting to get that text and advised to stay in. But I didn't.

It's known that were were a lot of errors. (And widely believed that if they'd included the information in GPs' systems there would have been fewer.)

Jonathan

[Oldjohnw]

I recognize your situation. I am similar with the added factor being that I am 70. I have assumed I will need to remain in isolation until a vaccine is available. Even then, I further assume that it will take several weeks to administer it to all who need it. My expectation has been next Spring.

I always cycle alone so that is not an issue. But I sing/play in a number of choirs/ensembles so that is on hold. I hope wild camping is ok which I do.

[LinusR]

I hope wild camping is ok which I do.

I think that will be ok. I've no worries about doing that. Less people around the better!

[Bmblbzzz]

I think cafes will be the big issue. I'm not going to guess when they'll reopen or in what form, or how many of them will have survived lockdown - or how many will fold after reopening because the custom is no longer there. It's difficult to imagine a way in which they could operate completely safely short of disinfecting tables and chairs after each use, and I don't think that's going to happen or be practical.

[De Sisti]

When you say "Once I've been given the all clear" - when do you think that's gonna happen?

I meant that when the government states that we can all go about our business as before. No one
knows when that is going to happen.

[Mick F]

I have asthma, but it's under control and if you were to meet me, you would never guess.
If I get a bad cold, it often goes to my chest and generally clears up by itself, though often been to the doc's and been given steroids.

Because I have asthma, I've been on the free flu jabs since leaving the RN in 1996 aged 43.
Never had flu, just bad colds.

The lockdown hasn't curtailed my cycling in the slightest. Well, I say that, but it now means I only do rides from home rather than drive somewhere to get some new scenery or cycle somewhere and get the train back.

[De Sisti]

My asthma rears its head between late September and late March (when the temperature is lower and
air 'damp'). I've been told that here, in the Centre for the Cotswolds, surrounded by hills, the air
isn't as clean as it should be.