Cycling UK Forum

https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/ ... ngland.pdf

Might be of interest to some.

Cheers James

Jamesh wrote:https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/reports/uk-novel-variant/2020_12_23_Transmissibility_and_severity_of_VOC_202012_01_in_England.pdf

Might be of interest to some.

Cheers James

Could someone please summarise it for me.

"We estimate that VOC 202012/01 is 56% more transmissible (95% credible interval across three regions 50-74%) than preexisting variants of SARS-CoV-2."

"We were unable to find clear evidence that VOC 202012/01 results in greater or lesser severity of disease than preexisting variants."

"Nevertheless, the increase in transmissibility is likely to lead to a large increase in incidence, with COVID-19 hospitalisations and deaths projected to reach higher levels in 2021 than were observed in 2020, even if regional tiered restrictions implemented before 19 December are maintained. Our estimates suggest that control measures of a similar stringency to the national lockdown implemented in England in November 2020 are unlikely to reduce the effective reproduction number ​R​t​ to less than 1, unless primary schools, secondary schools, and universities are also closed. We project that large resurgences of the virus are likely to occur following easing of control measures. It may be necessary to greatly accelerate vaccine roll-out to have an appreciable impact in suppressing the resulting disease burden."

Jonathan

So it's urgent to take action ... so expect Johnson to consider, ponder, discuss, ponder a bit more, wait a bit, crossed fingers for a time and next March what is left of the country will hear his decision.

(Have I become too cynical - having lost another close to family earlier this week).

Ian

People die .... Boris cannot make it an offence to die ... however many people think he can .... 570 yesterday with / of / maybe of covid but where is the out rage for the other 1100 dead of cancer, stroke, heart disease ...et al ...
I've gone past being cynical ... people die .... it's the nature of life ...

landsurfer wrote:.. Boris cannot make it an offence to die ...

Doesn’t mean he’s beyond criticism....

landsurfer wrote:People die .... Boris cannot make it an offence to die ... however many people think he can .... 570 yesterday with / of / maybe of covid but where is the out rage for the other 1100 dead of cancer, stroke, heart disease ...et al ...
I've gone past being cynical ... people die .... it's the nature of life ...

....Or to look at it another way, look at all the people who don't now die of cancer, stroke heart disease et al, due to progress in medical science. If your line of reasoning is followed they may as well shut the hospitals and Doctor's surgeries full stop.
There has been an immense amount of work put into managing this disease by doctors,nurses, scientists, politicians et al, because the human need is there. It behoves everyone in the country to support their efforts in my opinion.

Could someone please summarise it for me.

This individual also does an excellent and daily job of summarising information about the new variants and covid matters in general. Discussion of the N501Y variant begins at 19:15. Hope that helps.

It behoves everyone in the country to support their efforts in my opinion.

Quite agree. While this idea doesn't quite fit with my generalised opnion that the planet would be better off without the human animal, in the mean time, we must all acknowledge that no man is an island and that what we do as individuals can and does have a knock-on effect, usually unseen, on other people.
Thus the family unit I queued up behind the other day, who cheerfully wore no masks and were loudly explaining to one & all the finer details of a wide range of conspiracy theories, may well have played their part in transmission and so ending up resulting in the denial of treatment to a hypothetical 70 year old who dies of covid, and who otherwise may have enjoyed an additional fun-packed and healthy 10 years of active life, shared with friends & family... It does however, take an effort of mind to recall that one's own actions ripple out widely, like the proverbial pebble in a pond.

colin54 wrote:[
....Or to look at it another way, look at all the people who don't now die of cancer, stroke heart disease et al, due to progress in medical science. If your line of reasoning is followed they may as well shut the hospitals and Doctor's surgeries full stop.
There has been an immense amount of work put into managing this disease by doctors,nurses, scientists, politicians et al, because the human need is there. It behoves everyone in the country to support their efforts in my opinion.

BUT ... nothing works;
Lockdowns
Masks
Closing schools
Closing hospitality
Social distancing
Restriction, restriction, restriction

Nothing works, and doing the same thing again and again expecting a different result is madness..
The virus is running wild in society and nothing we have done has stopped it, slowed it down or tripped it up .. So lets accept that and plan accordingly.

landsurfer wrote:The virus is running wild in society and nothing we have done has stopped it, slowed it down or tripped it up .. So lets accept that and plan accordingly.

Masks and isolation reduce transmission.

The UK has never tried "lockdown" to the extent of many other countries. (And the word is therefore potentially very misleading.)

Jonathan

landsurfer wrote:The virus is running wild in society and nothing we have done has stopped it, slowed it down or tripped it up .. So lets accept that and plan accordingly.

What's your explanation for the number of cases and deaths being so different in similar countries?

Thanks

Jonathan


https://www.statista.com/statistics/111 ... y-country/

Jdsk wrote:What's your explanation for the number of cases and deaths being so different in similar countries?

Thanks

Jonathan

Percent of population over 60 / vulnerable ?
Go ahead, do tell us your theory...

landsurfer wrote:Nothing works, and doing the same thing again and again expecting a different result is madness..
The virus is running wild in society and nothing we have done has stopped it, slowed it down or tripped it up .. So lets accept that and plan accordingly.

landsurfer wrote:

Jdsk wrote:What's your explanation for the number of cases and deaths being so different in similar countries?

Percent of population over 60 / vulnerable ?

How would age distribution cause a fourfold increase in deaths (per capita) in the UK over Germany? Or ninefold in Sweden over Norway?

Thanks

Jonathan

landsurfer wrote:People die .... Boris cannot make it an offence to die ... however many people think he can .... 570 yesterday with / of / maybe of covid but where is the out rage for the other 1100 dead of cancer, stroke, heart disease ...et al ...
I've gone past being cynical ... people die .... it's the nature of life ...

But Johnson can make timely decisions and take effective action and thus prevent needless deaths.

Johnson's ongoing indecision and dithering and ignoring scientific advice has allowed the virus to spread far more than necessary thereby causing significant additional avoidable deaths and significant damage to the economy. A brief effective lockdown does far less damage to the economy than long ineffective "lockdowns".

Ian