New varient covid study...

User avatar
simonineaston
Posts: 4047
Joined: 9 May 2007, 1:06pm
Location: ...at a cricket ground

Re: New varient covid study...

Postby simonineaston » 26 Dec 2020, 11:48am

But... nothing works
It's often hard to see how an individual's action can affect the over-all picture but there has been study after study that helps us recognize that some simple actions are worth doing, mask wearing being just one. You can't necessarily see that it helps, but overall, it does have a positive effect, as does ventilation, distancing and hand-washing - a leap of faith if you like, but not a hard one to make. I've just read a comment on an American YT channel (where the low take-up of the afore-mentioned precautions in some areas is resulting in some very upsetting numbers...) thus:
Mask-wearing isn't a politcal statment - it's an IQ test.
In happier times, I'd have chuckled when I read that, but as I've just watched this (yesterday of all days!) I don't feel in a very humorous frame of mind. You tend to forget what a sob this virus can be until you see patients struggling to deal with it...
And one last comment: perhaps folks are getting tired of reading about infection rates that seem to go endlessly up & up, as if nothing we do has any impact - I know I am - but I would say that it's now that the basic simple precautions are more important than ever! The more there is of it around, the harder we have to work to protect ourselves and our loved ones.
byyeee,
SiE

landsurfer
Posts: 5307
Joined: 27 Oct 2012, 9:13pm

Re: New varient covid study...

Postby landsurfer » 26 Dec 2020, 12:51pm

I'm sorry Simon but the whole concept of protection is based on a false premise.
I have 4 children, 1 at college, 2 at primary and the youngest at nursery. The idea that anything that we can do can somehow protect us is false. The children wander around in a sea of the virus every day and come home to us every day ... Which is probably why Julie and I had all the symptoms and the illness and the isolation in May.
Society makes protection impossible ... but if the wearing of masks and sanitising everything makes you feel safe then it is worth it for that alone.
We have seen daily press reports of the virus rampage around the world yet we still think we can defeat nature ... we can't ... we need to do something different to protect those that want protecting and restore life for others who accept risk as part of life to continue .... people like cyclists, motorcyclists, surfers, mountaineers, footballers, rugby players.. etc etc
We have to do something different ,,
Be More Mike.
The Road Goes On Forever

Jdsk
Posts: 5230
Joined: 5 Mar 2019, 5:42pm

Re: New variant covid study...

Postby Jdsk » 26 Dec 2020, 12:57pm

landsurfer wrote:We have seen daily press reports of the virus rampage around the world yet we still think we can defeat nature ... we can't ...

I've no idea what "defeat nature" means in this case. We can reduce the number of cases and deaths and the amount of harm from this disease. The public health measures that make a difference are known, and their effectiveness can be seen from the different outcomes in different countries and regions.

Jonathan

PS: Would you call the eradication of smallpox an example of how we can "defeat nature"? Or any of the thousands of effective medical interventions? Or clean water and sewage systems?

Psamathe
Posts: 11988
Joined: 10 Jan 2014, 8:56pm

Re: New varient covid study...

Postby Psamathe » 26 Dec 2020, 1:08pm

landsurfer wrote:I'm sorry Simon but the whole concept of protection is based on a false premise.
I have 4 children, 1 at college, 2 at primary and the youngest at nursery. The idea that anything that we can do can somehow protect us is false. The children wander around in a sea of the virus every day and come home to us every day ... Which is probably why Julie and I had all the symptoms and the illness and the isolation in May.
Society makes protection impossible ... but if the wearing of masks and sanitising everything makes you feel safe then it is worth it for that alone.
We have seen daily press reports of the virus rampage around the world yet we still think we can defeat nature ... we can't ... we need to do something different to protect those that want protecting and restore life for others who accept risk as part of life to continue .... people like cyclists, motorcyclists, surfers, mountaineers, footballers, rugby players.. etc etc
We have to do something different ,,

You are thinking in a narrow set of circumstances - your own. Just because you feel that in your circumstances avoidance of close contacts does not work does not mean it does not work for everybody which actually means it helps you.

e.g. you visit the supermarket twice and you statistically have a chance of catching C-19; but go only once and you have half the chance of catching the virus from your supermarket visit. Hence "distancing" is lowering your chances of catching C-19.

e.g. if you visit the supermarket and 20 of the other customers have C-19 you stand a chance of catching it from somebody; but if many of those customers stay at home (e.g. 50% use "Home Delivery") then you half your chance of catching C-19 when you visit as there are fewer people spreading the virus in-store ...

etc., etc. ...

and if you are asymptomatic spreading virus all the e.g.'s above mean you will be protecting others avoiding spread by following the measures.

Society does not make protection impossible - it may make it harder or more work for some (e.g. you). You are thinking of "protection" in terms of absolutes which it is not. It's all about lowering the chances of catching and lowering the chances of spreading. Distancing works in both ways. So if you happen to catch an asymptomatic infection from your many risk sources, if you keep with "distancing" and hand sanitising, etc. you are far less likely to spread your virus to others.

Rejection of the steps to reduce infection will increase your own risk as well as increase the risk to others. You may think nothing can be done to "protect" yourself from catching the virus but to disregard steps to lower the risk of your spreading asymptomatic infection to others ... speaks for itself.

Ian

User avatar
horizon
Posts: 10369
Joined: 9 Jan 2007, 11:24am
Location: Cornwall

Re: New varient covid study...

Postby horizon » 26 Dec 2020, 2:06pm

Psamathe wrote:You are thinking in a narrow set of circumstances - your own. Just because you feel that in your circumstances avoidance of close contacts does not work does not mean it does not work for everybody which actually means it helps you.



In landsurfer's eyes, it doesn't work for them, even if those people think it does. So that shouldn't really change his thinking.

Rejection of the steps to reduce infection will increase your own risk as well as increase the risk to others.


As above.

You may think nothing can be done to "protect" yourself from catching the virus but to disregard steps to lower the risk of your spreading asymptomatic infection to others ... speaks for itself.

This is the natural follow-on from the one above: landsurfer doesn't believe that "rejection of the steps to reduce infection will increase your own risk as well as increase the risk to others". But if landsurfer doesn't change his behaviour to take into account what he sees as other people's beliefs, then he may be accused of being uncaring. Landsurfer will then be in the position of either doing lots of (in his eyes) silly things to show that he is caring or stand accused of being uncaring. Neither is particularly satisfactory so the most obvious step is then to say, OK, I don't care - which of course is untruthful.

Rejecting the various restrictions doesn't necessarily mean you are uncaring or that you are after a "free ride". The same will be true of vaccination. So I would suggest that saying that someone is uncaring is a cheap shot; it doesn't back up your case for protection or for getting vaccinated. And do remember that as an accusation it is (as Jonathan pointed out in relation to another assertion today) it is unfalsifiable. What must landsurfer do to show that he is not uncaring apart from doing something that he believes is pointless?
When the pestilence strikes from the East, go far and breathe the cold air deeply. Ignore the sage, stay not indoors. Ho Ri Zon 12th Century Chinese philosopher

markjohnobrien
Posts: 367
Joined: 4 Oct 2007, 8:15pm

Re: New varient covid study...

Postby markjohnobrien » 26 Dec 2020, 2:33pm

landsurfer wrote:
colin54 wrote:[
....Or to look at it another way, look at all the people who don't now die of cancer, stroke heart disease et al, due to progress in medical science. If your line of reasoning is followed they may as well shut the hospitals and Doctor's surgeries full stop.
There has been an immense amount of work put into managing this disease by doctors,nurses, scientists, politicians et al, because the human need is there. It behoves everyone in the country to support their efforts in my opinion.


BUT ... nothing works;
Lockdowns
Masks
Closing schools
Closing hospitality
Social distancing
Restriction, restriction, restriction

Nothing works, and doing the same thing again and again expecting a different result is madness..
The virus is running wild in society and nothing we have done has stopped it, slowed it down or tripped it up .. So lets accept that and plan accordingly.


Not correct that nothing works: social distancing and lockdowns slow the increase in people catching Covid, reduce transmission rates, and it’s once restrictions are eased (before the new variant emerged) that cases skyrocket again.

Counterfactually, how much worse would it have been without masks, social distancing, and lockdowns? Far, far, worse. I shudder to think of the death toll.

sjs
Posts: 931
Joined: 24 Jan 2010, 10:08pm
Location: Hitchin

Re: New varient covid study...

Postby sjs » 26 Dec 2020, 3:12pm

horizon wrote:What must landsurfer do to show that he is not uncaring apart from doing something that he believes is pointless?


Nothing. I don't suppose many here believe he is uncaring, or care very much if he is. He should do what he believes to be pointless, just as people who believe speed limits are pointless should nonetheless adhere to them.

landsurfer
Posts: 5307
Joined: 27 Oct 2012, 9:13pm

Re: New varient covid study...

Postby landsurfer » 26 Dec 2020, 3:19pm

sjs wrote:
horizon wrote:What must landsurfer do to show that he is not uncaring apart from doing something that he believes is pointless?


Nothing. I don't suppose many here believe he is uncaring, or care very much if he is. He should do what he believes to be pointless, just as people who believe speed limits are pointless should nonetheless adhere to them.


We follow all pointless commands, because it is for the greater mental health of all ... but we don't expect it to make any difference ... we live our lives ..
Speed limits ... they are limits, not targets ... I'm a "62 mph on the motorway" man myself, .... :)
But utterly reckless in big seas on my board or kayak ...
Be More Mike.
The Road Goes On Forever

Psamathe
Posts: 11988
Joined: 10 Jan 2014, 8:56pm

Re: New varient covid study...

Postby Psamathe » 26 Dec 2020, 3:26pm

horizon wrote:
Psamathe wrote:You are thinking in a narrow set of circumstances - your own. Just because you feel that in your circumstances avoidance of close contacts does not work does not mean it does not work for everybody which actually means it helps you.



In landsurfer's eyes, it doesn't work for them, even if those people think it does. So that shouldn't really change his thinking.

Rejection of the steps to reduce infection will increase your own risk as well as increase the risk to others.


As above.

You may think nothing can be done to "protect" yourself from catching the virus but to disregard steps to lower the risk of your spreading asymptomatic infection to others ... speaks for itself.

This is the natural follow-on from the one above: landsurfer doesn't believe that "rejection of the steps to reduce infection will increase your own risk as well as increase the risk to others". But if landsurfer doesn't change his behaviour to take into account what he sees as other people's beliefs, then he may be accused of being uncaring. Landsurfer will then be in the position of either doing lots of (in his eyes) silly things to show that he is caring or stand accused of being uncaring. Neither is particularly satisfactory so the most obvious step is then to say, OK, I don't care - which of course is untruthful.

Rejecting the various restrictions doesn't necessarily mean you are uncaring or that you are after a "free ride". The same will be true of vaccination. So I would suggest that saying that someone is uncaring is a cheap shot; it doesn't back up your case for protection or for getting vaccinated. And do remember that as an accusation it is (as Jonathan pointed out in relation to another assertion today) it is unfalsifiable. What must landsurfer do to show that he is not uncaring apart from doing something that he believes is pointless?

Just pointing out that it's not just about protecting yourself but also about protecting others - no "cheap shots" involved. It's a two way process - that is life, bottom line, etc. Any individual may not be aware of they have asymptomatic infection and might thus be spreading so the "distancing", etc. helps reduce the risks of an individual inadvertently spreading as well reducing the risk of an individual catching.

Ian

Psamathe
Posts: 11988
Joined: 10 Jan 2014, 8:56pm

Re: New varient covid study...

Postby Psamathe » 26 Dec 2020, 3:30pm

markjohnobrien wrote:
landsurfer wrote:
colin54 wrote:[
....Or to look at it another way, look at all the people who don't now die of cancer, stroke heart disease et al, due to progress in medical science. If your line of reasoning is followed they may as well shut the hospitals and Doctor's surgeries full stop.
There has been an immense amount of work put into managing this disease by doctors,nurses, scientists, politicians et al, because the human need is there. It behoves everyone in the country to support their efforts in my opinion.


BUT ... nothing works;
Lockdowns
Masks
Closing schools
Closing hospitality
Social distancing
Restriction, restriction, restriction

Nothing works, and doing the same thing again and again expecting a different result is madness..
The virus is running wild in society and nothing we have done has stopped it, slowed it down or tripped it up .. So lets accept that and plan accordingly.


Not correct that nothing works: social distancing and lockdowns slow the increase in people catching Covid, reduce transmission rates, and it’s once restrictions are eased (before the new variant emerged) that cases skyrocket again.

Counterfactually, how much worse would it have been without masks, social distancing, and lockdowns? Far, far, worse. I shudder to think of the death toll.

I agree. Look at the countries who went for a proper lockdown and went about it quick enough for it to be effective (i.e. without the prevarication, dithering, delays, reduced measures (with reduced effectiveness, etc.).

Ian

Phileas
Posts: 318
Joined: 18 Feb 2009, 6:12pm
Location: Bristol

Re: New varient covid study...

Postby Phileas » 26 Dec 2020, 3:41pm

Not just that. If you look at infectious diseases generally, they are all down massively compared to normal years. It’s bizarre to imagine that has nothing to do with measures taken against Covid 19.

landsurfer
Posts: 5307
Joined: 27 Oct 2012, 9:13pm

Re: New varient covid study...

Postby landsurfer » 26 Dec 2020, 4:00pm

570 deaths today from or with C-19 today, +81 on this day last week ... Source, Grauniad ...
Tier 3, Tier 4 ...
Boxing day massive sales ... really ...

Please explain whats working ....

Don't whinge about people not doing the right thing ... tell me what actually works in our world !

We're off to our friends Mel and Johns for a few drinks tonight ... with our 4 children, and their 3 children, all of whom mix at school, Julie and Mel walk to the primary school twice a day .. John and I work for different companies, but often in the same place ... does that qualify as a "bubble" ??

Anywayup .... Have a lovely boxing day and new year and stay as safe as you feel the need to be .....
Last edited by landsurfer on 26 Dec 2020, 4:13pm, edited 1 time in total.
Be More Mike.
The Road Goes On Forever

landsurfer
Posts: 5307
Joined: 27 Oct 2012, 9:13pm

Re: New varient covid study...

Postby landsurfer » 26 Dec 2020, 4:02pm

Phileas wrote:Not just that. If you look at infectious diseases generally, they are all down massively compared to normal years. It’s bizarre to imagine that has nothing to do with measures taken against Covid 19.


Possibly more to do with people being trampled to death by Unicorns being recorded as C-19 deaths ...
Be More Mike.
The Road Goes On Forever

User avatar
simonineaston
Posts: 4047
Joined: 9 May 2007, 1:06pm
Location: ...at a cricket ground

Re: New varient covid study...

Postby simonineaston » 26 Dec 2020, 4:13pm

landsurfer wrote:I'm sorry Simon but the whole concept of protection is based on a false premise.
No need to apologize to me, chap! :D You're reading too much into what I said, I think. My remarks were limited to four straightforward principles of, for want of a better word, hygene, that is: ventilation, mask-wearing, distancing and hand washing. For any given environment, including schools & colleges *, we're better off following these principles than not. That's all I suggested... and I'll stick to it.
Other steps may or may not help to "flatten the curve", the cliche we have learnt refers to the attempt by authorities to try to make sure that medical facilities are not overrun and its inconvient & slightly taboo consequence, that follows along a few weeks after - dealing with those who have failed to overcome their individual health issues...
I said nothing at all about winning a fight against this bug. It will do what it does.
* I will however stick my neck out, dive into my pocket for my lucky ten pee piece and risk it on yet another bet, that is the gov. will have to close education sites at least once more this pandemic and my shiny coin is resting on the calendar at the square marked March - I reckon they'll try and bundle it up with Easter, if they possibly can Easter Sunday falling next year on the 4 April. But they may not have that option.
byyeee,
SiE

Jdsk
Posts: 5230
Joined: 5 Mar 2019, 5:42pm

Re: New varient covid study...

Postby Jdsk » 26 Dec 2020, 4:19pm

landsurfer wrote:
Phileas wrote:Not just that. If you look at infectious diseases generally, they are all down massively compared to normal years. It’s bizarre to imagine that has nothing to do with measures taken against Covid 19.

Possibly more to do with people being trampled to death by Unicorns being recorded as C-19 deaths ...

The number of excess deaths doesn't depend on how anything is recorded, apart from the fact of death and the date.

Current excess deaths:
UK 81,000
Germany 24,000

Road traffic accidents (GB) 1,800... so about 45y of that to match 1y of this outbreak
Unicorn trampling (UK) 0

Jonathan

Image
https://www.ft.com/content/a2901ce8-5eb7-4633-b89c-cbdf5b386938
Last edited by Jdsk on 26 Dec 2020, 4:24pm, edited 1 time in total.