The utility cyclist wrote:I already did the calculation based on a 10 speed derailleur system (at todays live market prices) earlier in the thread, there's absolutely no doubt that just a Rohloff hub alone (never mind chains etc) is not far shy of double the cost over 100k miles,
forgive me if I missed the post but all I can find is where you said:
The utility cyclist wrote:£540 even in todays market can get you 100,000 miles fairly comfortably
But I can't find your breakdown of how you came to that cost?
I can't get anywhere near this using what I think are fairly conservative assumptions of longevity.
Cassette (Tiagra 10 speed) - Most places listing these at £25-29.99, but assume you foudn a great deal an can get them for £15
Chain (Tiagra 10 speed) - £11 seems to be the nominal selling price at the moment
Assuming a Tiagra compact double:
Inner Chainring - £12
Outer Charinring - £25
Assuming a third party triple using Spa's very affordable rings
Inner Chainring - £12
Middle Chainring - £19
Outer Chainring - £27
Tiagra rear derailleur - £22
Tiagra front derailleur - £19
Tiagra 10 speed drop bar STI - £119 <-- best price I could find
OR
Tiagra 10 speed flat bar shifters - £65
Now, I'm going to leave out the cost of cranks as you need them for a Rohloff too, (which means you get the first set of chainrings for free int his estimate!)
So, making some conservative assumptions on longevity, over 100,000 miles of mixed riding in all weathers.
Cassette lasting 5000 miles: 20x £15 = £300 (this should be £500 based on the £25 selling prices I can find)
Chain lasting 2500 miles: 40x £11 = £440
Chainrings wear at different rates, lets be generous and say an outer can go 30,000 miles, a middle 20,000 and inner 15,000? sound reasonable? Remember I've irnogred the first set as they came on the chainset that I've not included. There's some leeway either way here between double and triple depending on how you use them.
Double:
Outer: 2x £25 = £50
Inner: 4x £12 = £48
total = £98
Triple:
Outer: 2x £25 = £50
Middle: 4x £19 = £76
Inner: 5x £12 = £60
total = £182
Assume the mechs and shifters last the full 100,000
£160 for drop bar or £106 for flat bar
So here's the breakdown so far
Double Drop bar - £300 + £440 + £160 + £98 = £998
Double Flat bar - £300 + £440 + £106 + £98 = £944
Triple Drop bar - £300 + £440 + £160 + £182 = £1082
Triple Flat bar - £300 + £440 + £106 + £182 = £1028
So a Rohloff is going to cost you in chains, sprockets and chainrings too, but they last longer, say 4 Chainrings and 8 sprockets?
Chainrings, lets use big ones, 3x £25 = £75 (remember the first one is not counter in either setup as it's on the cranks already and we're looking at the delta)
Sprockets, 8 x £20 = £160
Chains, well IGH chains can last ages, but lets be pessimistic and say they only last twice as long as a derailleur chain
Chain, 20x £11 = £220
Rohloff retails for £1125, but can be had for as little as £830, but lets say £1000 average?
So here's the breakdown so far
£1000 + £220 + £160 + £75 = £1455
So on the face of it that's ~50% more than the 10 speed setup over the same mileage, but that's assuming your mechs and shifters make it to 100,000 which they might not. It's also ignoring that once your're 100,000 miles is up the Rohloff will then do another 100,000 with the only ongoing costs being (fewer consumables) where as the derailleur setup will not only be costing more in consumables, it'll probably need most of the other parts replacing too, so as time goes on the Rohloff is a lot cheaper.
The other elephant in the room is that the above prices are all worked out using Shimano's cheapest 10 speed parts, any deviation to posher kit is going to push the cost upwards, and all prices were based on current lowest selling prices online, LBS prices and time may also push those prices up considerably. There's some saving to me made dropping to 8 speed, but surprisingly, not much!
I've also been fairly optimistc with the mileages I think, loaded touring can kill chains, cassettes and chainrings quicker than the above figures, especially when not maintained well where as an IGH will require less maintenance and worn parts will still function.
All of the above is obviously based on assumptions and the figures could vary, in either direction, and this is a discussion NOT an argument so if anyone wants to dispute or offer adjustments then please feel free to do so, but please show your workings and don't just quote a £ value, it's useful for people to see how others have arrived at their outcomesPS. In case it's relevant I do
NOT own a Rohloff
It’s also worth re-stating Bruceys’ point though that a pile of worn out shifters and mechs (at whatever mileage) are essentially worth £0, where as a Rohloff has residual value and will at some point break even with its initial purchase cost and then only need consumables.
