E-bikes: depressing or what?

[MikeF]

The ebike stands at a crossroads: either it will replace cars or it will replace bicycles.

Or it might replace some of each.

[horizon]

The ebike stands at a crossroads: either it will replace cars or it will replace bicycles.

Or it might replace some of each.

Yes, we are speculating as to where the general shift (if there is one) will be. I've already posted on a different thread to say that I think that e-bikes will eclipse unpowered bikes in about five years (although the way things are stacking up on here, five weeks might be a closer estimate ).

None of us really knows (we are trying to predict the future) but I'm less positive: I think e-bikes will replace most bikes, will replace some cars (maybe lots, who knows) and will get quite a few people off buses and tubes. And it may actually get a whole new raft of pedestrians and walkers onto "bikes". And maybe all hire schemes will eventually go electric. It's hard to know what effect the 250 upper power limit will have on mopeds and scooters.

But I stand my my initial proposition that e-bikes will replace most bikes even if that's not all they do.

[meic]

But I stand my my initial proposition that e-bikes will replace most bikes even if that's not all they do.

Will you consider that prophesy to be realised if in five years 80% of cycles on the road are e-bikes and the share of journeys made by bikes has increased from 2% to 10%?

[Ruadh495]

But I stand my my initial proposition that e-bikes will replace most bikes even if that's not all they do.

Will you consider that prophesy to be realised if in five years 80% of cycles on the road are e-bikes and the share of journeys made by bikes has increased from 2% to 10%?

+1

I don't think many of those who are currently using "conventional" bikes will be rushing to trade them for e-bikes. In the UK at least; the picture might be different in Holland where there are more utility cyclists, but while most British cyclists have exercise as at least a secondary goal they won't be embracing e-bikes. E-bikes will always be utility vehicles rather than sporting equipment (consider the futility of a race for restricted
e-bikes) and so simply aren't in the same market as most current bicycles (in the UK).

Where the take up will come from is those utility journeys which are currently made using buses, mopeds and cars. That doesn't mean that people who currently cycle won't buy e-bikes, I think they will, but they will use them for journeys they weren't already cycling.

So the number of "conventional" bike journeys is unlikely to be reduced, but will comprise a smaller percentage of total cycle journeys. In fact I am hopeful that "conventional" bike journeys will also increase as the increase in cycle numbers drives a more cycle friendly road environment. There is a "slippery slope" but it points the other way; e-bikers discover that cycling is practical and get fitter (if you don't believe e-bikes increase fitness try riding one 20 miles a day, but take a 10 year lay off from cycling first...) so are more inclined to use "conventional" cycles. I don't believe there are many who will say "This is great but I need more power" and buy a moped. Those who would already did that and are using mopeds, motorcycles or cars.

P.S. We will know we are "there" the first time we see a track bike being transported to the track behind an e-bike instead of on top of an Audi.

[PH]

In fact I am hopeful that "conventional" bike journeys will also increase as the increase in cycle numbers drives a more cycle friendly road environment. There is a "slippery slope" but it points the other way; e-bikers discover that cycling is practical and get fitter (if you don't believe e-bikes increase fitness try riding one 20 miles a day, but take a 10 year lay off from cycling first...) so are more inclined to use "conventional" cycles.

I work with someone who made that transition, still uses the E-bike but only for around 30% of their cycling.

[reohn2]

A couple of thoughts that sprung to minde regarding this thread:-

If someone is riding an e-bike in heavy traffic,commuting say in London would the reduction in heavy breathing help reduce his/her pollution intake compared with someone riding an unassisted bike at the same speeds.

Someone considering an e-bike would I imagine,think long and hard before spending £1500+ to commute on.Especially if they dont currently ride.


I think the current popularity of the e-bike in NL is that many,many older people cycle as it's seen as an efficient way to travel locally,mainly because the country is geared up for cycling as a preference to the car.
It's difficult to use a car in most towns in NL as they're actively discouraged,use of the bike is encouraged as I found out some years ago when chatting to a bike shop owner who informed me,that an NL citizen can walk into any bike shop and order a new bike tax free.They then show the shop their ID card fill in the paperwork(5minutes)and the cost is deducted from their salary or OAP,monthly over three years. I should imagine the same rule applies to street legal e-bikes.
Civilised nation.

[Cyril Haearn]

Catch them old instead of young?

Minimum age for e-bikes? (something like disability parking badges?) If this is done right it could be vg for public health, +1

I love Nederland too but Germany is better in one respect at least - the shops are closed Sundays (they open only 4 Sunday afternoons a year)

[hemo]

E bikes would catch on if we were a cycling nation like the Dutch, how ever in the whole we are not.
Most only have a bike for recreational use for the odd weekend ride out in nice sunny weather.
A lot of non bikers, who or if they buy one will use it infrequently and in the long run the battery will most likely not last as long as they expect it to. With little or no knowledge of how the battery should be looked after, then they become an expensive option and most will reside in the shed unused.

[RigdenRoger]

It would be too strong to say I have been agonising over buying an ebike myself, but I'm certainly weighing up the pros and cons. I'm 62, five years ago had a pulmonary embolism, collapsed lung and fluid in it, not much reward for watching Wiggo's victory in the TdeF two days earlier. Made a good recovery, and a couple of years later bought a decent road bike, a Giant Defy 1, to get back into cycling. On the flat coastal plain of West Sussex, with a few forays into the South Downs, I built my range up to 50 mile rides in preparation for the Gridiron 100km in the New Forest that autumn, completing the distance, if not the exact course.

Now, however, we are back living in Chesterfield, Derbyshire, and whichever direction you leave town, it's uphill. I've struggled climbing hills these past few years, and usually end up hyperventilating and getting off to walk the rest of the way to the top. It's put me off cycling and made me decline invitations from friends who are regular riders to join them going out into the Peak District, knowing I wouldn't manage the first four miles of climbing out of town, never mind another 40 to follow.

Curious to find out if there had been any lasting damage to my lung from the PE, I recently had some tests at my GP surgery and it emerged my overall lung capacity is about 20 per cent below what it should be for someone my age and a relatively fit and healthy nonsmoker. So I am almost half a lung down.

A few years ago I actually wrote a feature on ebikes for the local paper I edited on the south coast, and was very impressed, but felt they weren't for someone my age then. Much as in the same way I don't want to play walking football yet and still play five aside. However, with ebikes I am now beginning to reconsider my position, which has been largely based on the feeling it's cheating, as others have already said, and I should be able to manage in my own strength. Several friends, all strong riders, have suggested I should get an ebike to be able to get up into the hills and explore the wonderful scenery on our doorstep.

So, the deliberations continue, with some valuable contributions from this thread to chew over now, too. Good to be back on the forum after a couple of years away, didn't realise what I was missing! And apologies for such a long post.

[horizon]

RigdenRoger: great post - thank you. I think you've provided clear evidence for what others have been saying.

[squeaker]

Fred Grimm described how in the middle ages streets were full of muck, people just threw their rubbish out and called *gardyloo!*
Now the streets are disfigured instead by vehicles that get uglier each year, the new ones look even worse than the old ones

Quite Streets claimed as linear car parks endangering all and sundry who wish to travel along them.

[mick skinner]

I've only read the OP so the question I'm asking might have been answered but wot-evar! What's depressing a bout The Guardian reporting that Derby might be rolling out ebike sharing? It's not explained in the OP.

I've just come round to the idea of getting an ebike and I think I missed a trick by not getting one years ago. I think they're a better idea than electric cars.

[willcee]

Very interesting contris from all and sundry, my view , I doubt if the UK is as ready as the Politicos obviously think for E anything, very clear to me living in rural Ulster that E cars won't ever suit Farmers, Builders and anyone else who lives off grid so to speak, they will have a niche in cities, big towns, and amongst those who drive less than 6 miles any day.. as to E bikes, and I back in '13 put my thoughts on this very forum section and had a gentle rollicking from Brucey when he aired his thoughts on my thinking of building a lightweight Ebike.. I didn't build it. BUT I am back on track guys.. have the frame and all of the kit except mid motor and battery.. As to an ebike revolution within these Islands I doubt it will ever happen , It will covert some older cyclists, ime I cannot see droves of new to cycling converts getting 'E' on my side of the pond, and until we get some sense on one of the N.I. ROAD TRAFFIC Orders, which is the reason the law here is different and didn't follow mainland rules.. I would doubt many will be applying for a liscense compulsory CBT, ROAD TAX , INSURANCE.. Me.. I travel on back country roads and it shouldn't look like an ebike..and I have a liscence... WILL

[UpWrong]

What's depressing is the EU manaufacturers trying to be protectionist by lobbying for the incorrect application of anti-dumping laws to increase tariffs on chinese manufactured e-bikes. They want us to pay moped prices for e-bikes in order to boost their profits.

[Mick F]

As some of you may know, we had a week's holiday in Benidorm. Got back after midnight Fri/Sat.

Yes Beni is filled with electric mobility scooters. There's three wheeled ones, four wheeled ones, tandem ones, and mainly all rented by the week.

There were loads of cyclists. Mainly roadies, and a few Bromptons and other folders.

The main thing I wanted to say, was the huge number of eBikes being ridden. The place is FLAT, and all these folk were doing was riding along the prom. We also saw a few eBikes that both the cranks were positioned downwards so the rider went along without pedalling at all. We also saw eRiders going along without pedalling, and stopping at junctions, and then going off again fully under electric power without turning the cranks.

We saw a couple of Segways, and any number of small electric two-wheel scooters, plus even a few electric skateboards and hoverboards.

If Spain can do all this with electrically powered vehicles, we in UK look a trifle daft with our 19th century laws regarding powered vehicles. The sooner we sort this out, the sooner we can get people out of cars and onto mass electric convenient transport in our city centres.

Forget eBikes .............. just get eScooters, Segways, and hoverboards legalised for use in UK.