Guardian: Nederland, more dead cyclists than motorists, e-bikes

Psamathe
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Re: Guardian: Nederland, more dead cyclists than motorists, e-bikes

Post by Psamathe »

kwackers wrote:.....Similarly I think some folk should just hold their hands up and say "I just don't like ebikes!".
The reason neither group does is the same; they'd feel like *****, much better to look for excuses because having an actual reason makes them feel better. Even one that's entirely in their head.

Ebikes are here. Older riders will ride them. Get over it.

I appreciate your post was not responding to me but I have nothing against e-bikes.

I do feel it can under some situations be a shame where young fit healthy capable people use them and don't get the same health benefits as being self-powered but that is their choice and nothing to do with me.

But "Ebikes are here. Older riders will ride them. Get over it." does not mean we have to accept disproportionate higher accident rates. We (society) need to find methods to see that those using them have the appropriate skills. Replace "Ebikes" with "Mobile phones" and would you propose doing nothing about accident rates and propose doing nothing.

It's not about e-bikes it's about accident rates caused by people using them without appropriate skills/experience/ability. there are many different ways to address that so no need for the e-bikers to get all defensive.

Ian
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Re: Guardian: Nederland, more dead cyclists than motorists, e-bikes

Post by kwackers »

Psamathe wrote:But "Ebikes are here. Older riders will ride them. Get over it." does not mean we have to accept disproportionate higher accident rates. We (society) need to find methods to see that those using them have the appropriate skills. Replace "Ebikes" with "Mobile phones" and would you propose doing nothing about accident rates and propose doing nothing.

It's not about e-bikes it's about accident rates caused by people using them without appropriate skills/experience/ability. there are many different ways to address that so no need for the e-bikers to get all defensive.

Ian

I'm sorry, but that's just assumption piled on assumption which seems to be par for the course for this thread.

If you want to make sure those using bicycles have appropriate skills then I'm there with you, but it should apply to all cyclists on all forms of bicycle.
A 25 year old banging along at 30mph is far more dangerous than a 65 year old at 15 and the 25 year old has a misplaced belief in their own skills - otherwise why do so many manage to kill themselves in cars?

I'm sure you'll agree since we're talking about accident rates here, who has them is irrelevant if an innocent party suffers.
Lets get those pensioners back in their cars where they're safe and lets have a minimum level of training for all cyclists before they're allowed in public spaces.

Whilst at it, compulsory 3rd party insurance wouldn't go amiss either.
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Re: Guardian: Nederland, more dead cyclists than motorists, e-bikes

Post by Vorpal »

First of all, actuarial risks have very little correlation to actual risk. They are established for the purposes of making a profit for insurance companies.

Second of all, the TØI study I linked above found no increase in risk associated with e-bikes. *If* some groups of e-bike users are statistically more at risk than others--something that is not established, although they did find that older women were overrepresented in crash statistics--then the causes for this need to be explored.

One of the things found in the TØI study I linked above is that the front wheel drive type e-bikes were somewhat mroe likely to be involved in crashes. The authors suggested that this was due to poorer stability and handling. In the Netherlands, this is an older type of cycle, but is rather more common than in Norway. Is this a contributory factor? Are older cyclists more likely to have this type of e-bike?

Another thing they found is that older women increase their cycling more when they switch to e-bikes. This, in turn will increase their exposure.

They also found that e-bike cyclists were more likely to report falls when mounting and dismounting, which could be an issue for older cyclists.

To the point about experience, they also found that e-bike cyclists who self-reported crashes were less likely to say that they were experienced cyclists and less likely to say that they were good at maneuvering a bicycle. So it is likely that experience and confidence play a role in e-bike crashes.

What is not clear, is that this is any different from other sorts of cycles.

There's nothing wrong with offering Bikeability courses to those returning to cycling. I think it's a very good idea.
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Psamathe
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Re: Guardian: Nederland, more dead cyclists than motorists, e-bikes

Post by Psamathe »

kwackers wrote:....Lets get those pensioners back in their cars where they're safe and lets have a minimum level of training for all cyclists before they're allowed in public spaces.
...

I don't agree and don't understand as you seem to have done a complete reversal from previous suggestions.

I have no problem with broadening training to all cyclists but don't think keeping them out of public spaces before they have that training will accomplish anything useful. To me it's a really weird suggestion. Similarly, getting pensioners back in cars seems a weird suggestion.

I think I've completely lost your line of thought and your point - to the point where I don't really know how to have a sensible discussion on your points any more.

To me it's straightforward. When you e.g. have a very obese old person hammering along under battery power with no real idea about how ineffective their brakes are under such conditions it becomes a hazard. And when that individual has no idea about rights of way, indicating, other road/path users it gets kind of dangerous. I don't understand why people here with e-bikes are so against addressing this situation.

Ian
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Re: Guardian: Nederland, more dead cyclists than motorists, e-bikes

Post by Vorpal »

Um, I'm pretty sure kwackers was being sarcastic.
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Wanlock Dod
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Re: Guardian: Nederland, more dead cyclists than motorists, e-bikes

Post by Wanlock Dod »

I can't help feeling that this thread has become rather contaminated by the kind of scaremongering that is all to common in the press, what with suggestions of higher maximum speeds and inadequate braking capabilities. Since virtually all e-bikes limit the assistance to 25 kph they are not really going appreciably faster than most other folks, perhaps apart from into a strong headwind, and the fact that the bikes are virtually brand new means that they generally seem to have a rather better chance of stopping than your average fietser (I've not seen many old clunkers with Maguras).

In my experience e-bike riders in the NL are probably older couples out for a longer recreational ride than they might manage otherwise. I've not seen many e-bikes outside Jumbo, but when I do they seem to be younger folks who probably live a bit further afield and aren't going to be able to afford a car. I would imagine that commuting use is similar, in that there are probably relatively few being used by people who are travelling a bit further.
kwackers
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Re: Guardian: Nederland, more dead cyclists than motorists, e-bikes

Post by kwackers »

Vorpal wrote:Um, I'm pretty sure kwackers was being sarcastic.

It is the lowest form of wit.

But tbh when faced with this, I think the lower the better.

Psamathe wrote:To me it's straightforward. When you e.g. have a very obese old person hammering along under battery power with no real idea about how ineffective their brakes are under such conditions it becomes a hazard. And when that individual has no idea about rights of way, indicating, other road/path users it gets kind of dangerous. I don't understand why people here with e-bikes are so against addressing this situation.
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Cunobelin
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Re: Guardian: Nederland, more dead cyclists than motorists, e-bikes

Post by Cunobelin »

The utility cyclist wrote:
Cunobelin wrote:There is unequivocally the fact that males over 65 years form a major portion of the fatalities with 2/3 of all cycle deaths being in this range.

Because 18% of the deaths were E-Bikes and 31 out of the 38 E-Bike deaths were males over 65 there is an assumption of increased danger. What has not been done is to look at just how many of these individuals would have had the same outcome on an ordinary bike.What E-Bikes have done is effectively increase the number of over 65 year old riders. The fact that the number of accidents doubled may just reflect the booming sales in this age group. That is twice as many on the road, twice as many accidents.

Also a possibility is that as an already at risk group increases both in numbers and age, other factors such as the ability to react in traffic and respond to obstacles is decreased as a function of the rider's cognition rather than bike style

It is also noticeable that the research admits that "Statistics Netherlands does not go into the causes of the crashes", so we have no actual idea of what caused these deaths.

There is absolutely no hard evidence that E-Bikes are the issue, it is purely conjecture.


Please cite your source of doubling of over 65s cycling?
fact is you're guessing and the numbers do not add up to make your point valid in any way.

As one gets older the easily available speed of an assisted bike means this increases the situations when you unable to react/brake roperly - if you can have on tap a speed that is 50% faster than you can cycle you're less likely to be able to adapt immediately or indeed be able to work out the speed/distance/time problem when braking and reacting to unfolding scenarios.
So yes it is the type of bike, because the bike enables faster speeds than normal by its very design and indeed is part of the selling point of e-bikes. Human beings are humans in their thinking, even one member here talks about the fun side of going faster on an e-bike, everyone is affected, you can't help it though some have more control than others.

If as you say cycling in the over 65s has doubled that a massively significant number in a country where over 65s already cycle a lot, that would be removing a heck of a lot of motoring, so why is the under 65 age groups with low rate buying e-bike having fewer deaths and the over 65s having a massive spike that is on the same factor as uptake? That doesn't stack up in any case because fewer motors and those over 65s are actually per mile travelled more dangerous in terms of reactions when coming across people on bikes, safety in numbers etc. When you have circa 60 deaths where segregated crosses a road then reducing the over 65s out of motors should see more improvements in cycling deaths because you've removed a significant proportion of motorists.

Sorry but it doesn't add up with your explanation, there's only one that does and that's the huge increase in e-bike use.


That came across wrong....

There is a massive increase in sales, and all the articles and references state this is being driven by the over 65s. However there are no actual breakdowns of the figures.

What I was saying is that there was an increase in accidents, but did that match the increase in sales? If the number had doubled and accidents had doubled - sorted.

The reason that the over 65s is important is that they were the most vulnerable group already that has an inordinately high accident rate, so an increase in their numbers (605 of fatalities, yet 3% of total distance cycled)

In order to justify the claims that e-bikes are the major catastrophic disaster one needs to sort out the confounding factors.

For instance, is it appropriate to give lessons to e-bike users only when the whole age group is at risk.
willem jongman
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Re: Guardian: Nederland, more dead cyclists than motorists, e-bikes

Post by willem jongman »

It is the combination. Older cyclists are at risk even on ordinary bikes. However, now that there are ebikes far more of them are cycling. Since they are also new to modern day cycling in traffic, their knowledge of what it takes to cycle safely also leaves something to be desired. In addition, a heavy ebike is a bit of a challenge for a frail rider with limited riding skills. Finally, many buy their ebikes a size too large, and have their handlebars so close to the chest and so high that the bike becomes hard to control. All these things come together in the accident statistics, even if identifying the different strads of the process is hard. But denying that this is happening is closing your eyes to realiity. What these statistics do not show, of course, is the health benefit from a bit (not that much) more exercise for the elderly, and the happiness brought by more mobility. That may well justify a few more road casualties. At the same time, none of this applies to younger riders who are just lazy.
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Cunobelin
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Re: Guardian: Nederland, more dead cyclists than motorists, e-bikes

Post by Cunobelin »

The assumption about tiger speed ia actually a fallacy....not something that happens in real life

There is a document Cycling Facts

It shows that the average speed for the 65-74 age group is in fact similar for ordinary and e-bikes, whilst not the over 75 group, the average speed on bikes is lower.

The claims that all the issues are because these e-bikes are faster, or being ridden at higher speeds are not supported by the evidence issued by the Netherlands Government
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Re: Guardian: Nederland, more dead cyclists than motorists, e-bikes

Post by Cyril Haearn »

kwackers wrote:
Psamathe wrote:But "Ebikes are here. Older riders will ride them. Get over it." does not mean we have to accept disproportionate higher accident rates. We (society) need to find methods to see that those using them have the appropriate skills. Replace "Ebikes" with "Mobile phones" and would you propose doing nothing about accident rates and propose doing nothing.

It's not about e-bikes it's about accident rates caused by people using them without appropriate skills/experience/ability. there are many different ways to address that so no need for the e-bikers to get all defensive.

Ian

I'm sorry, but that's just assumption piled on assumption which seems to be par for the course for this thread.
..
..

Not only assumption and speculation, I think Willem Jongman knows what he is talking about, he might know more than the rest of us put together :wink:
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Re: Guardian: Nederland, more dead cyclists than motorists, e-bikes

Post by kwackers »

Cyril Haearn wrote:Not only assumption and speculation, I think Willem Jongman knows what he is talking about, he might know more than the rest of us put together :wink:

What makes you think that?
From where I'm sat he's simply relating anecdotal rather than empirical evidence.

Do you know in the UK that most folk believe cyclists are the authors of their own misfortune? These are folk who drive around and observe cyclists.
How do you explain the huge discrepancy between what they think and what the facts actually are?

I think I'll stick to an evidence based explanation thanks and so far all I'm seeing is assumption, speculation - and for completeness I'll add anecdotes to that list.
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Re: Guardian: Nederland, more dead cyclists than motorists, e-bikes

Post by willem jongman »

I have been following the research on the subject for a number of years. And yes, there is also anecdotal evidence, but if you live here you collect many anecdotes. Anyway, there is some statistical evidence but until quite recently ebikes were not a separate category in the accident registration. We have better evidence for the severity of the injuries, viewtopic.php?f=6&t=121646&p=1267442#p1267442and they are quite a bit more serious for ebikers: https://www.swov.nl/feiten-cijfers/fact ... d-pedelecs
The explanation given is the greater weight and higher speed of ebikes. There is also research on behaviour of older cyclists, and the result was that by and large older cyclists try to be more careful.
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Si
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Re: Guardian: Nederland, more dead cyclists than motorists, e-bikes

Post by Si »

Just been working with some Belgians. They were very much of the opinion that there were more crashes/injuries since the advent of ebikes in Ghent (it's a thing in their press). Most of the crashes are restricted to the bike lanes and tend to be bike on bike. They put this down, partly, to there being the two classes of ebikes - the ones that assist up to around 15mph, and the ones that can do around 30mph but are still allowed in bike lanes. Given that the many Ghent cycle lanes are like many northern European infra - built for moving large numbers at moderate speeds, this isn't surprising I guess.
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Re: Guardian: Nederland, more dead cyclists than motorists, e-bikes

Post by willem jongman »

In Holland the fast ebikes are not allowed on bike lines, but many still ride there, as I can observe from my window. Even so, the number of fast ebikes is stil quite low, and low enough to be invisible in the statistics. As for speed differences on bike lanes, there is a real difference between the typical ebiker at 25 km and the typical traditional Dutch bike at about 20 km. Add the fact that our bike lanes have become too crowded and narrow for the increase in the number of cyclists and there is a real source of accidents which is not helped by the inexperience and limited riding skills of some ebikers. One interesting thing in the accident statistics is the increase in the number of one sided cycling accidents, i.e. people falling off their bikes or riding into an obstacle with no car or other bike in sight.
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