Cugel wrote:There are many factors involved as contributory causes of increased cycling in London. One is the large cost of travel by other means. Another is that it's a lot faster than other modes of travel.
I don’t think that any of the other relevant factors have undergone much of an abrupt change in recent years which could be correlated with the changes in the levels of cycling, but I look forward to being corrected.
Cugel wrote:Does the provision of cycling infrastructure, such as it is, also contribute as a cause to the increase? Perhaps - but how do you detect the degree of causation contributed by all the many factors involved?...
Is there any evidence to suggest that not providing infrastructure would have resulted in a similar or greater increase in levels of cycling? Can you provide any contemporary examples of places which have significantly facilitated cycling without providing segregated infrastructure?
Approaches towards addressing, and quantifying, both of these kinds of questions have been the bread and butter of science and statistics for decades, although such analyses are limited by the quality of the data available. This is usually overcome by a weight of evidence analysis to ensure the reliability and uncertainties associated with any conclusions drawn. Will you be presenting any evidence up to the scale?
Cugel wrote:London is a special case because it has the tradition, means, population, importance and other factors that mean large amounts of dosh will be spent on "London Things" that will never be spent elsewhere....
I have heard many times of examples which are special cases, where the relationships derived elsewhere wouldn’t apply. Can you provide any evidence that London doesn’t fit well with what we find when we compare it against other towns and cities. Despite all of the things that are special and different about London can you really show that it can’t be treated as part of a larger population of towns and cities worldwide, at least as far as correlation between factors like traffic, cycling, and population density?
Is it really even relevant what current cyclists of Little Britain think about what would be required to encourage and enable most people in the country to ride bikes rather than take their cars for journeys of between about 0.5 and 5 km? Is there any reason why we shouldn’t just ask them, after all they are the ones that would have to do something differently if things were to change?