Implications of a No Deal Brexit for cycling?

[Wanlock Dod]

This seems to be a distinct possibility given the current position of the government, so what are the implications for cycling?
Some bookmakers are giving 4:1 odds on fuel rationing, which if it comes to pass could see people doing rather a lot less driving.

(edited to change thread title as suggested by Psamanthe)

[hufty]

Think this has been covered here: viewtopic.php?t=108977

[Carlton green]

Think this has been covered here: viewtopic.php?t=108977

I think that you’re probably right and I don’t want to encourage any discussion on Brexit (which I find to be an issue that turns friends and family against each other), however I do recall the trouble in 2009 (?) when there were petrol shortages. The roads were very much quieter and some people did dust their bikes off to gain a means of transport. I’m really not certain how petrol rationing could be made to work fairly and without crime but, to be honest, I still think a lot of good could potentially come from it.

[Wanlock Dod]

I couldn’t find any discussion about cycling there, although it’s possible that my ability to read isn’t quite what it might be.

Of course we don’t know for sure that there will be any shortages, and if there are whether there will be rationing. If any interruption to fuel supplies is short lived they could be resolved before it is practical to implement rationing. If fuel suppliers run out then some people won’t be able to put fuel in their vehicles, and might not be able to drive them. Fewer vehicles on the roads generally tends to make conditions less bad for cycling. If some of those drivers find themselves riding bikes instead they might find that their attitude towards cyclists is a bit different when they get back in their cars. That would probably not be a bad thing for cycling. Consequently, even if any interruption to the fuel supply is short it could have a lasting benefit.

[fastpedaller]

Suppliers will want to sell their goods - IMHO anyone suggesting shortages is scaremongering (for whatever reason).
Some of the comments in the press and TV are somewhat worrying(or strange) depending on how much they're analysed eg. "Goods coming into uk from Europe will be more thoroughly checked if we complete Brexit" begs the question of whether sufficient checks are occurring, or (because we're 'still pals') all sorts of undesirable goods could be sneaking through?

[Wanlock Dod]

Suppliers will want to sell their goods...

Perhaps we could try to keep the political discussions elsewhere.

Does this have any implications for cycling? Will imported bikes be cheaper for us to buy? Will export markets for bikes made here expand?

[Psamathe]

But of a one sided question in the title to this thread.

For example, loss of Freedom of Movement means for an extended cycle tour ... well you can't because you'll be limited to 90 days in Schengen Area in any 180 day period. Also, if wanting to tour through beyond EU/Schengen, maybe Eurovelo 2 into Russia well it gets harder because multiple entry Schengen visas are only available to somebody who has previously held a double entry Schengen visa and you're still limited to 90 days in any 180 day period. I don't regard that as a benefit.

Quite a few EU countries are somewhat more positive about cycling and cycle infrastructure than Westminster is (not a lot of profit for private companies in cycle infrastructure ...) and we will be stepping outside the sphere of influence (as well as funding/grant sources).

etc.

I would have preferred see a thread title e.g. "What Would The Impact Of No-Deal Be For Cycling".

Ian

[Wanlock Dod]

A sound suggestion, thread title duly edited.

[rjb]

Hurray it means we will still be able to drive and cycle on the left.

[roubaixtuesday]

Off the top of my head...

1. The economy will tank, so most cyclists will have less money to spend on all things cycling. On the plus side, those who lose their jobs will have more time to spend on their bikes.

2. The pound (already 20% down from pre referendum) will fall further, making imports more expensive and especially foreign cycling holidays more expensive.

3. Tariffs from outside the EU (where most cycling stuff is made) will probably drop, which could offset or more likely even override (2)

4. The residual manufacturers of cycling related stuff in the UK will find access to their markets in the EU slower and more expensive, and are likely to struggle or fail.

5. The economy tanking will reduce (or at least lessen the increase of) traffic on the roads

6. Spending on cycling infrastructure will be significantly lower than it would be, as the govt will be strapped for cash, and as a far right outfit, will almost certainly be pro- road lobby and anti cycling.

[simonhill]

Edit:written while above one was being written, left unchanged.

Short term or long term?.

Since the vote, the £ has slumped. This has increased the cost of my overseas tours by about 20%, which has probably cost me £thousands by now. Every time the chance of a no deal gets bigger, the £ falls further. I am sure all tourers who have been overseas in the last 2 years have found this. Also possible future visa problems are a worry. The Eu has a of of clout when negotiating such things, we are yet to see how the UK fares, particularly as these things are usually reciprocal.

We may get more foreign tourers (and tourists), plus stay at home ones in the UK. Whether this is good or bad depends on a number of things (routes busy, accom full, more facilities provided for cyclists - take your choice). What I doubt is that the Govt will start a series of publicly funded UK-velo routes.

A few months after the vote, I bought a frame I wanted. It was ex Taiwan and would be priced in $s. I got it at the old price of £400, within a few months it had gone up to £480 (the 20% £ slump). Given that almost all our cycling equipment is imported this price rise must be filtering through to the shops.

Exporting British bikes - which ones? As far as I know we only make a few bespoke bikes. Companies like Thorn import their branded bikes.

Food - our (cyclist's) fuel has got more expensive since the vote.

Should there be fuel shortages, I expect similar to last time. I definitely thought cycling was a bit safer and more pleasant then. This abruptly ended once the crisis was over so no long term gain,

I am very anti Brexit and cannot see any upsides for ME as a citizen, a traveller and a cycle tourist, nonetheless, a reasonable pension means that I can easily survive. Not so sure this applies to all

[Carlton green]

Perhaps we could try to keep the political discussions elsewhere.

Does this have any implications for cycling?

Unfortunately opinions on Brexit are so strongly held that nearly everyone who contributes to this cycling thread will do so in political terms - without heavy moderation that’s almost to be expected because Brexit has been astonishing divisive.

I preferred the original title of the thread and would actually like to hear (only) matter of fact and non-partisan cycling specific comments, please, for those that either do or do not like Brexit there are other places and threads on which to air your thoughts.

[Psamathe]

Perhaps we could try to keep the political discussions elsewhere.

Does this have any implications for cycling?

Unfortunately opinions on Brexit are so strongly held that nearly everyone who contributes to this cycling thread will do so in political terms - without heavy moderation that’s almost to be expected because Brexit has been astonishing divisive.

I preferred the original title of the thread and would actually like to hear (only) matter of fact and non-partisan cycling specific comments, please, for those that either do or do not like Brexit there are other places and threads on which to air your thoughts.

I think most posts in this thread have raised facts related to cycling without political bias e.g. for longer tours visas will be a significant issue, exchange rate has and will impact the costs of imported bikes, being outside the EU trade agreements will make importing from e.g. Rose Bikes harder and/or more expensive, etc.. The original title suggested only wanting benefits, yet there are undoubtedly downsides for cycling as well and seems to me valid to raise both.

Ian

[Wanlock Dod]

High fuel prices were apparently an enabling factor in The Netherlands move towards facilitating cycling, although the movement was principally aimed at stopping the killing of children. Perhaps there is a parallel there with air pollution in our cities, albeit a less visible one. There were some threads a while ago about the new prime minister appointing cyclists or cycling advocates to some posts, perhaps this is his plan. Who knows, maybe whatever becomes of it will be the trigger to get people out of their cars for short journeys and have real benefits for public health, air quality, climate change, congestion, and local economies.

[youtube]jHPOzQzk9Qo[/youtube]

[poetd]

And don't forget the only trade partner that wants anything to do with us Post-Brexit - Trump.

And all he wants is the NHS, for which I doubt we'll get much if anything in return.

So once hospital visits are as expensive as they are over the pond that will help reduce the number of cyclists as no-one will be able to afford the £50,000.00 bill for falling off their bike.